Guide Metallographer:4.20Analysis of today's gold trend, US economic growth may stagnate

Market Review:


InternationalgoldWednesday(4month19day)触底反弹小幅收跌，开盘价2008.29dollar/Ounces, highest price2008.33dollar/Ounces, lowest price1969.05dollar/Ounces, closing price1990.65dollar/ounce.


Interpretation of the Golden News:


　　周四凌晨公布的美联储经济状况褐皮书显示，最近几周美国经济增长陷入停滞，招聘和通胀放缓，信贷获得渠道变窄。整体经济活动变化不大，对未来经济的增长预期保持基本不变。在本报告所述期间，尽管价格上涨速度似乎正在放缓，但总体价格水平仍呈温和上升趋势。


　　美联储官员威廉姆斯表示，美国通胀仍然“太高”，美联储将采取行动降低价格压力。紧缩的信贷条件将对经济增长产生拖累。预计通胀今年将降至3.25%。预计未来一年失业率将逐渐上升至4%-4.5%。通胀在逐渐缓和，但需求仍超过供应。经济以稳健的速度扩张，但增长应该会适度放缓。仍然非常强劲的就业市场出现放缓迹象。


　　摩根士丹利首席执行官分析称，美联储可能不会停止加息，可能还会再加息一两次。预计今年不会有任何降息。预计美联储将在2024年降息。


The world's largest goldETF--SPDR Gold TrustIncrease in position compared to the previous day2.31Tons, current position is926.57Tons.


According toCMEFederal Reserve Observation: The Federal Reserve5The probability of maintaining interest rates unchanged on a monthly basis is14.5%Interest rate hike25The probability of a basis point is85.5%； reach6The probability of maintaining monthly interest rates at the current level is9.8%Accumulated interest rate increase25The probability of a basis point is62.4%Accumulated interest rate increase50The probability of a basis point is27.9%。


Today's Gold Data:


　　14:00Germany3monthPPIMonthly rate


　　17:00eurozone2Monthly adjusted trade account


　　19:30European Central Bank Announces Minutes of Monetary Policy Meeting


　　20:30From the United States to4month15Number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the current week


　　20:30U.S.A4Monthly Philadelphia Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index


　　20:45Federal Reserve Governor Waller delivers a speech


　　22:00U.S.A3Annualized total monthly housing sales


　　22:00U.S.A3Monthly consultation chamber leading indicator monthly rate


　　24:00Federal Reserve Governor Waller delivers a speech on Financial innovation


The next day00:20Federal Reserve Meister delivers a speech


The next day03:00Federal Reserve Governor Bowman Attends the "Fed Listening" Event


The next day05:00Federal Reserve Bostick delivers a speech on economic conditions


Technical analysis of gold:


Yesterday's brief rebound pressure measurement of gold2008The first line once again showed weak and volatile performance, and the market suddenly accelerated its decline in the afternoon, falling below20Daily line1990There will be a certain delay in rebound later, but the upper confirmation1995After the pressure, gold bears in the European session once again exerted their power to decline, and the decline was significantly amplified. By the end of the evening session, the low point had fallen to the expected trend line support1970Nearby and with piercing movements. Judging from the decline performance of gold in the day, it is in line with expectations in space, and the pace of decline is more violent than expected. The main reason for short sellers to release downward momentum may be that market sentiment suddenly turns to hype the Federal Reserve5The expectation of further interest rate hikes in the month is related, of course, there is also pressure from the early selling of long profit orders.


At present, the overall trend of gold is in line with expectations, and the market has also fallen to the key support of expectations1970Nearby, but with some punctures, this indicates that this position may only be temporarily suspended and bring strong rebound momentum, and the later market trend also needs the influence of the news side. However, the news side may also bring emotional fluctuations, which may increase the difficulty of operation. For the time being, gold is still keeping a weak outlook, but given that the expected decline in the intraday market has already been completed, there may be a certain rebound pressure measurement process in the market. Therefore, the top should focus on Monday's low point first2000Belt testing, mainly focusing on pressure2010Nearby, as long as the gold doesn't return2005Above, there is still a possibility of a continuation of the downward trend, but the amount of rebound will also affect the sentiment of another decline in the future. The specific analysis and adjustment will be made based on the final closing today.


Yesterday's gold trend reached a low after hitting a lower pointVType reversal, although there is a reversal trend, erasing most of the decline, the price is still at2000Below the point, the expectation of a second decline under the suppression of intraday attention. Gold has achieved a high level decline test, with a relatively large degree of decline. However, after the sharp decline, the continuity of the second rebound still declined, forming a fluctuating rebound link in the middle. However, the result is still a downward pattern, as can be seen from both falls. And the short-term low rebound, once again rising, is still expected to be a downward trend, so the following market trend focuses on the continuity of the decline.


Secondly, it is not ruled out that there may be a rapid upward trend in the middle of the market, but the structural direction must be clear. Falling is a decline, correction is a correction, bearish and bullish, rising and falling one after another to follow the fluctuations of the market and change the rhythm at will, so sooner or later it will be constrained by the market. After determining the overall direction and approach, establish a small range and select key resistance and support points for opening positions. If the market fails to fluctuate as expected, compare and summarize the trend patterns of the market, and summarize effective trading participation methods with habitual participation. Overall, today's gold short-term operation strategy is guided by the guidance of gold analysts, who suggest that the main focus is to rebound and short, supplemented by a pullback and long, with a focus on the short-term above2003-2005Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1970-1973Frontline support, friends must keep up with the rhythm.


　　4.20Reference for Golden Operation Strategy:


Empty order strategy:


Strategy 1: Gold rebounds1996-2001Short (buy down) 2/10 positions in batches nearby, stop loss6Points, target1985-1975Nearby, break down and take a look1970frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


Multiple order strategy:


Strategy 2: Gold Callback1970-1973Nearby batch long (buy up) 2/10 positions, stop loss6Points, target1985-1990Nearby, break down and take a look1995frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)