Guide Metallographer:4.19Analysis of today's gold trend, with the gold daily watershed hovering

　　goldMessage interpretation:


Looking Forward to Today Wednesday(4month19day)International gold initially weakened under short-term moving average resistance. In addition, the early strength of the US dollar index put some pressure on it. In addition, although the US dollar index still encountered obstacles in the daily chart and US bonds10The annual yield is still testing to break through the weekly chart, but its indicator signal still has a probability of breaking through, which will continue to put pressure on gold prices in the short term.


Moreover, at present, Federal Reserve officials are leaning towards hawks,5The probability of interest rate hikes in the month has also increased, so in addition to the lack of further positive factors, the probability of gold prices maintaining volatility is high. After waiting for the rate hikes to land, we will start the climbing mode again.


In the future, you can pay attention to the UK in Europe first3monthCPIMonthly rate and3Monthly Retail Price Index Monthly Rate and Eurozone2Monthly adjusted current account(100 million euros)and3monthCPIThe annual rate and final value are expected to be biased towards a positive outlook for the euro, which will boost gold prices and focus on the rebound in the European market;


Afterwards, focus on the early morning of the next day2The Federal Reserve announced the economic situation in the brown book. as well as5Point sum7Punctate2023yearFOMCVoting committee and Chicago Fed Chairman Gullsby delivered a speech.FOMCPermanent Voting Committee and New York Fed Chairman Williams delivered a speech. Based on recent data performance, the Beige Book may indicate a slowdown in economic growth, which is beneficial for gold prices. However, future speeches or hawkish views may continue to release, which will put pressure on gold prices. Overall, there is a high probability of a volatile move.


Fundamentally, last Friday, Federal Reserve Governor Warren stated that inflation is still too high and the Federal Reserve needs to continue raising interest rates.


This week, Federal Reserve officials followed a collective bias towards hawkish views, with the boards of governors in Cleveland, St. Louis, and Minneapolis hoping to3Increase the discount rate before the monthly Federal Reserve meeting50BP。 The three corresponding local Federal Reserve chairmen, Messer, Brad, and Kashkari, are all hawkish.


But some policymakers and analysts worry that the Federal Reserve may eventually plunge the economy into recession. In addition to next month's interest rate hike resolution, the Federal Reserve must also send some signals on what will happen next, whether to maintain the wording in the current policy statement that some additional policy tightening may be appropriate, or to imply a pause in interest rate hikes. But personally, I believe that the approximate price needs to maintain interest rates unchanged for a long period of time before starting to lower interest rates.


However, regardless, despite the pressure of another aggressive interest rate hike on gold prices in the short term and the possibility of formation near historic highs in the medium term3The top resistance has fallen, but it is only a pullback adjustment. As the gold price enters the second half of this year, its bearish factors have almost disappeared, and the Federal Reserve interest rate has reached its peak, which will begin to shift to a sustained pace of interest rate cuts. Therefore, the gold price has hit a historical high in the second half of this year and moved towards2100or2300The probability of the US dollar is high, and the long-term outlook for gold remains optimistic.


Today's Gold Data:


　　14:00britain3monthCPIMonthly rate


　　14:00britain3Monthly Retail Price Index Monthly Rate


　　16:00eurozone2Monthly adjusted current account


　　17:00eurozone3monthCPIAnnual rate final value and monthly rate


The next day02:00Federal Reserve Announces Economic Situation Brown Book


The next day05:30Federal Reserve Gullsby delivers a speech


Technical analysis of gold:


Yesterday's overall stabilization of gold technology1991The checkpoint is experiencing a bottoming out, recovery, and repair, with prices in Asia and Europe relying on1993The checkpoint slowly rose and rebounded, further rebounding in the afternoon and rising to2000Above the checkpoint, there continued to be lateral fluctuations, with prices slightly rising and piercing in the evening2005The checkpoint once again came under pressure and fell due to fluctuations, ultimately stabilizing the gold price1991The checkpoint ushers in a bottoming out and a deep reboundvRebound closing, daykThe online closing fluctuated and rebounded to a positive, with the overall price at1991Above, there is a form of support and stabilization, and there is still further upward impact in the Asian stock market today4Hourly opening and closing2015Expectations for the checkpoint, support and attention below today1997-1995Near, above pressure2015At the checkpoint, we will first rely on this range to see the long and wide range of fluctuations within the day. In the middle position, we will always look more and move less, and be cautious in pursuing orders. We will patiently wait for key points to enter, and the recent strong and weak divide between long and short will be marked2015At the checkpoint, the daily level is suppressed below this position to continue watching the oscillation;


Currently, from4Looking at the hourly chart, the early low point1981Unable to break, the current bearish trend has ended, and gold is starting a new upward trend. A long cross appears at the bottomKToday, I will emphasize not to chase the empty space. Currently10Moving average resistance2002There has been a breakthrough on the front line, and it is expected to further lift the upward trend in the evening, while the middle track2015It is an important obstacle for today's upward momentum. Only after passing can we strengthen and test the previous high. At present, the rhythm is also forcing upward momentum, combined with the medium track of the Bollinger Belt as the lifeline of short-term bulls. The medium track is not lost, and the short track may be reorganized and corrected. Strong support for multi head channels1981At this position, the trend of breaking the bull trend will not change. Today, we will step back on the channel support and move it up1997On the front line, it is currently stabilizing here. It is expected that after overnight market washing, the upward momentum will increase today, and focus on Monday's high2015Once the pressure is broken, it is easy to fluctuate and rise to2040-2050Qian Gao, as mentioned earlier, the current gold trend will not change due to last week's significant decline. Overall, today's gold short-term operation strategy is guided by the guidance of gold analysts, who suggest that the main focus is to rebound and short, supplemented by a lot of underperformance, with a focus on the short-term above2005-2010Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1981-1976Frontline support.


　　4.19Reference for Golden Operation Strategy:


Empty order strategy:


Strategy 1: Gold rebounds2005-2010Short (buy down) 2/10 positions in batches nearby, stop loss6Points, target1990-1985Nearby, break down and take a look1980frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


Multiple order strategy:


Strategy 2: Gold Callback1981-1976Nearby batch long (buy up) 2/10 positions, stop loss6Points, target1995-2000Nearby, break down and take a look2005frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)