Guide to gold analyst: Analysis of gold trend, probability of interest rate hikes skyrocketing, gold closing down again

　　goldMessage interpretation:


　　近期美国国债收益率见顶回落，但随着美国经济数据转强，美国国债收益率周一上涨，市场对美联储5月份加息预期有所强化，而对美联储年内降息的时间有所后移。投资者关注美联储官员对美联储在5月预期加息后是否可能停止加息的任何新指引。通胀数据的趋软也加了人们对美联储更接近于结束其紧缩周期的预期。本周美联储官员将会密集讲话，市场将会从这些讲话中寻得5月之后是否可能进一步加息的任何新迹象。在美联储5month2-3日的会议之前，官员们将从4month22日开始进入缄默期。


　　美国纽约联储4月制造业指数强劲反弹，为五个月内首次显示增长。纽约联邦储备银行周一表示，由于新订单和出货量激增，其4月份纽约州制造业活动的晴雨表在五个月内首次显示增长。


　　另外，数据显示，全球最大的黄金ETF——SPDR的持仓连续三个交易日下降，至925.7吨，暗示机构投资者对黄金的看涨情绪回落。


Today's Gold Data:


　　14:00britain2Three months in a monthILOunemployment rate


　　14:00britain3Monthly unemployment rate


　　14:00britain3Number of applicants for monthly unemployment benefits


　　17:00Germany4monthZEWEconomic Sentiment Index


　　17:00eurozone4monthZEWEconomic Sentiment Index


　　17:00eurozone2Monthly adjusted trade account


　　20:30Canada3monthCPIMonthly rate


　　20:30U.S.A3Total monthly construction permits


　　20:30U.S.A3Annualized total monthly construction of new houses


Technical analysis of gold:


The weekly chart is more obvious, with the triple tops all at short-term highs. After the tops appear, they should be corrected for fluctuations and fall back. However, the current trend happens to touch the shadow line of the previous high position, so whether to continue the downward trend after the current sharp drop is crucial. Pay attention to the high position of yesterday's rebound in the day, and secondly, if it cannot effectively rebound, continue to look for a downward trend.


Gold Yesterday's Daily Cross Small YinKThe close of the trading line is currently only a correction, combined with the short-term strong rebound of the US dollar, which limits the rise of gold prices and has been partially corrected through backtracking. Since it is a callback correction, the space can be deep or shallow. It depends on whether it is a strong correction or a weak correction.4The hourly chart shows a second correction, but its persistence is not strong, and the closing price remains stable at1981Above the low point. Make today's bulls face choices. It's in the1981Will the upper level stabilize and rebound, or will it break down1981.。 If it breaks down, it will further deepen the adjustment space and fall down, while if it stabilizes, it will rebound and regain lost ground. The strength of the Asian market is not obvious. You can place the operating point behind the European market and temporarily pay attention to yesterday's range in the short term2015-1981The breakthrough between them continues. The key point in the morning is to continue to rebound if there is no decline. If there is no effective decline around the afternoon of the day, you can directly follow the trend and continue to look up. If there is a continuous decline, the market is making adjustments!


Two points need to be noted now. Firstly, the confirmation of bearish positions in the large cycle daily chart is currently moving towards an insert downward trend. Secondly, there is a serious deviation from the four hour decline. Today, we will continue to focus on the second line, accelerating the downward trend and not breaking it1980It will form a triple bottom to correct. However, there has not been a weak bullish signal yet, just a deviation in the indicators. Therefore, we need to closely monitor short-term changes, as this signal can easily lead to a sub peak level market trend in the daily chart. Overall, in today's gold short-term operation guidelines, gold analysts suggest a pullback and long selling as the main approach, supplemented by a rebound and short selling, with a focus on short-term trading above2012-2015Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1990-1988Frontline support, friends must keep up with the rhythm.


　　4.18Reference for Golden Operation Strategy:


Empty order strategy:


Strategy 1: Gold rebounds2013-2015Short (buy down) 2/10 positions in batches nearby, stop loss6Points, target2000-1995Nearby, break down and take a look1990frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


Multiple order strategy:


Strategy 2: Gold Callback1990-1993Nearby batch long (buy up) 2/10 positions, stop loss6Points, target2005-2010Nearby, break down and take a look2015frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)