Guide Metallographer:4.18Today's gold trend analysis shows that gold prices have fluctuated and fallen again, closing lower

Market Review:


InternationalgoldMonday(4month17day)Volatile closing price1998.93dollar/Ounces, highest price2014.83dollar/Ounces, lowest price1980.94dollar/Ounces, closing price1989.78dollar/ounce.


Interpretation of the Golden News:


The United States announced on Monday4Recorded by the New York Fed Manufacturing Index for the month10.8Higher than market expectations-18, previous value is-24.6.


　　评论称，，纽约州制造业活动在经历了四个月的收缩后，4月份有所扩张，表明该地区制造业持续疲弱的状况可能正在触底反弹。美国4The New York Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index for the month3Of-24.6Significantly increase10.8Last year7月以来最高，超过了经济学家普遍预期的-15。约35%的受访企业表示，4月份经济状况较上月有所改善，24%的受访企业认为经济活动恶化。需求大幅复苏推动了该指数的显著改善。纽约联储称，短期内新订单和发货量料温和增长，就业料将增长。


The United States announced on Monday4monthNAHBReal estate market index recorded45Higher than market expectations44, previous value is44.


United States4monthNAHB房产市场指数显示，美国独栋房屋建筑商信心连续第四个月改善，因成屋供应不足和抵押贷款利率下降提振新屋需求，但建筑材料短缺仍是一大挑战。NAHBchairmanAlicia Huey称，建筑商注意到，抵押贷款利率进一步下降至6%以下，预计对住房的需求将进一步增加。尽管如此，该行业仍然受到建筑材料问题的困扰，包括缺乏电力变压器设备。新房销售已连续三个月增长，购房者渴望利用抵押贷款利率下降的机会。抵押贷款融资机构房地美的数据显示，30年期固定抵押贷款利率已从11At the beginning of the month7.08%的峰值降至上周的6.27%. In addition,NAHB的调查发现，30%的建筑商报告本月降价，低于3Of the month31%。利用激励措施促进销售的比例从3Of the month58%Ascend to59%。


　　美联储官员巴尔金表示，对银行业的现状感到放心，但不想宣布银行的潜在压力问题已经得到解决。需要更多证据表明通胀回落至目标水平。


　　克利夫兰联储发布的报告显示，短期预期可能是目前更值得关注的因素。从2021年初到2022年底，年化趋势通胀率为3.3%，但在去年第四季度达到3.4%，远高于美联储2%的目标。短期通胀预期读数高于第四季度通胀读数，这些数据表明，高于趋势通胀水平的短期通胀预期上升可能导致更高的实际通胀，而这两者的联系最近变得更加密切。


　　德意志银行分析称，美联储将更加强硬地加息，但他们仍预计，美联储只会再加息一次，之后会有很长一段时间的停顿。他们表示，通胀距离目标水平仍然太远，而银行业的威胁正在失去动力。“在我们看来，随着银行业压力的急性期似乎消退，以及又一份强劲通胀报告的公布，我们预计美联储将最终再加息25个基点，并在年底前将利率稳定在5.1%And then in the2024year1月开始降息。”


The world's largest goldETF--SPDR Gold TrustPosition decrease compared to the previous day2.02Tons, current position is925.7Tons.


According toCMEFederal Reserve Observation: The Federal Reserve5The probability of maintaining interest rates unchanged on a monthly basis is13.4%Interest rate hike25The probability of a basis point is86.6%； reach6The probability of maintaining monthly interest rates at the current level is9.7%Accumulated interest rate increase25The probability of a basis point is66.7%Accumulated interest rate increase50The probability of a basis point is23.5%。


Today's Gold Data:


　　14:00britain2Three months in a monthILOunemployment rate


　　14:00britain3Monthly unemployment rate


　　14:00britain3Number of applicants for monthly unemployment benefits


　　17:00Germany4monthZEWEconomic Sentiment Index


　　17:00eurozone4monthZEWEconomic Sentiment Index


　　17:00eurozone2Monthly adjusted trade account


　　20:30Canada3monthCPIMonthly rate


　　20:30U.S.A3Total monthly construction permits


　　20:30U.S.A3Annualized total monthly construction of new houses


Technical analysis of gold:


The weekly chart is more obvious, with the triple tops all at short-term highs. After the tops appear, they should be corrected for fluctuations and fall back. However, the current trend happens to touch the shadow line of the previous high position, so whether to continue the downward trend after the current sharp drop is crucial. Pay attention to the high position of yesterday's rebound in the day, and secondly, if it cannot effectively rebound, continue to look for a downward trend.


Gold Yesterday's Daily Cross Small YinKThe close of the trading line is currently only a correction, combined with the short-term strong rebound of the US dollar, which limits the rise of gold prices and has been partially corrected through backtracking. Since it is a callback correction, the space can be deep or shallow. It depends on whether it is a strong correction or a weak correction.4The hourly chart shows a second correction, but its persistence is not strong, and the closing price remains stable at1981Above the low point. Make today's bulls face choices. It's in the1981Will the upper level stabilize and rebound, or will it break down1981.。 If it breaks down, it will further deepen the adjustment space and fall down, while if it stabilizes, it will rebound and regain lost ground. The strength of the Asian market is not obvious. You can place the operating point behind the European market and temporarily pay attention to yesterday's range in the short term2015-1981The breakthrough between them continues. The key point in the morning is to continue to rebound if there is no decline. If there is no effective decline around the afternoon of the day, you can directly follow the trend and continue to look up. If there is a continuous decline, the market is making adjustments!


Two points need to be noted now. Firstly, the confirmation of bearish positions in the large cycle daily chart is currently moving towards an insert downward trend. Secondly, there is a serious deviation from the four hour decline. Today, we will continue to focus on the second line, accelerating the downward trend and not breaking it1980It will form a triple bottom to correct. However, there has not been a weak bullish signal yet, just a deviation in the indicators. Therefore, we need to closely monitor short-term changes, as this signal can easily lead to a sub peak level market trend in the daily chart. Overall, in today's gold short-term operation guidelines, gold analysts suggest a pullback and long selling as the main approach, supplemented by a rebound and short selling, with a focus on short-term trading above2012-2015Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1990-1988Frontline support, friends must keep up with the rhythm.


　　4.18Reference for Golden Operation Strategy:


Empty order strategy:


Strategy 1: Gold rebounds2013-2015Short (buy down) 2/10 positions in batches nearby, stop loss6Points, target2000-1995Nearby, break down and take a look1990frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


Multiple order strategy:


Strategy 2: Gold Callback1990-1993Nearby batch long (buy up) 2/10 positions, stop loss6Points, target2005-2010Nearby, break down and take a look2015frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)