Guide Metallographer:4.17Today's gold trend analysis shows that the high drop in gold prices exacerbates volatility

Market Review:


InternationalgoldFriday(4month14day)震荡下行大幅收跌，开盘价2038.76dollar/Ounces, highest price2047.24dollar/Ounces, lowest price1993.61dollar/Ounces, closing price1995.47dollar/ounce.


Interpretation of the Golden News:


The United States announced on Friday3Monthly retail sales rate recorded-1%, lower than market expectations-0.4%, previous value is-0.3%； U.S.A3月进口物价指数月率录得-0.6%, lower than market expectations-0.1%, previous value is-0.1%。


　　据美媒报道，3月份美国零售销售大幅放缓，突显出在年初因天气原因引发的购物狂潮之后，美国人的必要消费能力正在减弱。1Month and2月消费者支出稳健，但经济学家将其归因于异常温暖的天气，这提振了零售和餐饮业收入以及旅游收入。不过，经济学家预计，消费者支出可能在第一季度强劲增长，但随后会走弱。根据Wolters Kluwer Blue Chip Economic Indicators的一项调查，经济学家预计今年全年的支出将增长1.4%，约为去年增幅的一半。大多数经济学家预计美国经济衰退将在今年下半年开始。


Commentary states that the United States3月零售销售降幅超过预期，因消费者减少购买汽车和其他大宗商品，这表明由于利率上升，经济在第一季度末失去动力。零售销售的回落主要归因于美联储长达一年的加息行动，这一行动通过冷却国内需求来减缓通胀。上周的报告显示，3月份就业增长和服务业活动放缓，而制造业继续低迷。


The United States announced on Friday4月一年期通胀率预期录得4.6%Higher than market expectations3.7%, previous value is3.6%； U.S.A2Monthly commercial inventory rate recorded0.2%, lower than market expectations0.3%, previous value is-0.1%； U.S.A4The initial value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index for the month was recorded63.5Higher than market expectations62, previous value is62.


　　评论称，本月消费者信心基本持平，较3月份小幅上升不到两个点。低收入消费者信心的上升被高收入消费者信心的下降所抵消。尽管消费者注意到耐用品和汽车的通胀有所缓解，但他们仍预计高通胀将持续，至少在短期内是如此。总体而言，消费者并未感受到4月份经济环境的实质性变化。短期通胀预期的不确定性继续显著上升，表明近期预期的一年内通胀波动可能会继续。


　　美国财政部长耶伦表示，为遏制上个月硅谷银行和签名银行倒闭造成的系统性威胁，美国政府采取的政策行动目前使得存款外流趋于稳定。在这种环境下，银行会变得更加谨慎，并可能会在未来进一步收紧放贷标准。这将导致经济信贷受到限制，从而可能消除美联储进一步加息的必要性。她仍然乐观地认为，随着经济降温和通胀放缓，美国能够避免衰退和失业率大幅上升。


　　美联储理事沃勒表示，最近的数据显示美联储在通胀目标上没有取得太大进展，利率需要进一步上升。硅谷银行的倒闭确实阻止了市场对终端利率进一步走高的预期。


　　美联储博斯蒂克表示，再加息一次后，美联储可以暂停加息并评估。


　　华尔街日报调查显示，经济学家对美联储控制通胀的看法变得更加悲观。多数人预计美国今年整体CPI将降至3.5%, and1月份的调查结果为3.1%。五分之三的经济学家预计，美联储将在5月份进行最后一次25个基点的加息，且今年不会降息。


The world's largest goldETF--SPDR Gold TrustPosition decrease compared to the previous day2.89Tons, current position is927.72Tons.


According toCMEFederal Reserve Observation: The Federal Reserve5The probability of maintaining interest rates unchanged on a monthly basis is1.6%Interest rate hike25The probability of a basis point is98.4%； reach6The probability of maintaining monthly interest rates at the current level is9.9%Accumulated interest rate increase25The probability of a basis point is89.9%Accumulated interest rate increase50The probability of a basis point is0%Interest rate reduction25The probability of a basis point is0.1%。


Today's Gold Data:


　　20:30Canada2Monthly wholesale sales rate


　　20:30U.S.A4New York Fed Manufacturing Index for the Month


　　22:00U.S.A4monthNAHBReal Estate Market Index


　　23:00European Central Bank President Lagarde delivers a speech


Technical analysis of gold:


　　上周五黄金弱势震荡，虽欧盘时段行情出现一波回弹，但依然承压2047一线，随后展开再度回落调整，目前下方2000关口支撑被刺破，低点跌至1992一线，短线行情比预期下跌趋势要显得强势一些。日线结构上，行情是有扩大调整空间的预期的，下方可期待前期低点1980-1960区域回落，甚至不排除再出新低去看1948-1935一带测试的可能性。但是从四小时图结构来看，短线行情下跌至2000It is expected that there will be competition on the front line, but the market actually drops to a small low point in the early stage1992附近，也属于合理范畴内的调整，且四小时图级别指标超卖，所以整体走势结构并未被破坏，1992一线还是有可能提供一些反弹动能的，但是上方只要过不去2020-2015附近压力，那么其下跌趋势依然是很明显的。下周初上方关注2012-2015Short pressure test, strong resistance, continue to focus on2020附近，此位之下我们继续看空黄金，如果行情回到2030上方，那么周五的下跌将可能会失去其看空影响。短期下方则先关注2000关口争夺，1992可能也会有争夺，但主要支撑可锁定到前期低点争夺带1980Near.


　　1小时级别来看，黄金冲高2047After losing momentum on the first line, it gradually broke through the moving average and mid track support during the day, and hit the bottom track support to stop the decline. It once again moved a range between the upper and lower tracks, as long as the price remains stable1990一线下轨附近支撑，那么近期的震荡上涨格局就不会破坏，黄金将再次于下轨支撑转涨上行，当前布林带由开口向上转为走平，5Under the moving average10The dead cross of the moving average moves downwards, and the short-term pressure moves downwards to2012-2015Nearby, sub image indicatorsMACD快线拐头向下，慢线没有明显变化，绿柱直接放量到底，灵动指标超买区死叉向下运行至超卖区又拐头向上，指标显示黄金当前处于空头偏强但下方空间可能已经不大，因此操作上看空不追空，待反弹修正后再空。综合来看，今日黄金短线操作思路上指南金师建议反弹做空为主，回调做多为辅，上方短期重点关注2012-2015Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1980-1985Frontline support, friends must keep up with the rhythm.


　　4.17Reference for Golden Operation Strategy:


Empty order strategy:


Strategy 1: Gold rebounds2012-2015Short (buy down) 2/10 positions in batches nearby, stop loss6Points, target2000-1992Nearby, break down and take a look1985frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


Multiple order strategy:


Strategy 2: Gold Callback1983-1985Nearby batch long (buy up) 2/10 positions, stop loss6Points, target1995-2000Nearby, break down and take a look2005frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


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