Guide Metallographer:4.14Today's gold trend analysis, US data strengthens expectations of interest rates peaking

Market Review:


InternationalgoldThursday(4month13day)Significant increase in closing price2005.58dollar/Ounces, highest price2048.46dollar/Ounces, lowest price2005.06dollar/Ounces, closing price2038.77dollar/ounce.


Interpretation of the Golden News:


Thursday's announcement from the United States to4month8Record of initial claims for unemployment benefits for the current week23.9Higher than market expectations23.2, previous value is22.8； U.S.A3monthPPIMonthly rate recorded-0.5%, lower than market expectations0%, previous value is-0.1%； U.S.A3monthPPIAnnual rate recorded2.7%, lower than market expectations3%, previous value is4.6%。


Commentary states that the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States has risen for the first time in three weeks, indicating some weakness in the still strong labor market. The number of people applying for unemployment benefits indicates that it is difficult for people to find jobs after losing their jobs.


　　IMFPresident Georgieva stated that there is currently no banking crisis, but there is vulnerability. The US economy is slowing down, which will prompt the Federal Reserve to readjust its policies. Global growth is expected to remain weak in the near and medium term, and if financial pressure persists and leads to a sharp tightening of financial conditions, global growth may further weaken.


The world's largest goldETF--SPDR Gold TrustPosition decrease compared to the previous day3.47Tons, current position is930.61Tons.


According toCMEFederal Reserve Observation: The Federal Reserve5The probability of maintaining interest rates unchanged on a monthly basis is31.7%Interest rate hike25The probability of a basis point is68.3%； reach6The probability of maintaining monthly interest rates at the current level is29.6%Accumulated interest rate increase25The probability of a basis point is66.0%Accumulated interest rate increase50The probability of a basis point is4.4%。


Today's Gold Data:


　　14:45France3monthCPIMonthly rate


　　20:30U.S.A3Monthly retail sales rate


　　20:30U.S.A3Monthly Import Price Index Monthly Rate


　　20:45Federal Reserve Governor Waller delivers a speech


　　21:15U.S.A3Monthly industrial output rate


　　22:00U.S.A2Monthly commercial inventory rate


　　22:00U.S.A4Expected monthly and one-year inflation rate


　　22:00U.S.A4Initial monthly University of Michigan consumer confidence index


Technical analysis of gold:


Gold continued to rise and close higher yesterday, stabilizing at the opening2000Above the checkpoint, the consolidation and accumulation of momentum have gradually pushed the European and American markets to break through their highs, breaking through previous highs and reaching new highs2048.48dollar|Ounces, Daily Harvest Mid YangKThe daily trend is still bullish, but it is close to the previous high at the end of the week2070I'm afraid there may be some twists and turns in the area. After hitting a new high in the consecutive sessions, the daily trading volume will decrease and some areas will enter a high volatility. In the short term, it may be accompanied by a high and a fall. However, due to the large fluctuation base, the space for a fall will be relatively large.


　　4The hourly chart is in the middle of the third wave of rise, breaking through the high point and extending the expansion space of the third wave. As the low point moves up,4The current strong step oscillation is operating in the ascending channel, and it retreated at the beginning of the week1980-2000After stabilizing at the checkpoint, it pushed the price to break through the high and rise, which is a critical point in the medium to short term and has now moved away from it for a long time. Today's short term may continue to rise with inertia, but it is also a circuitous and sawy approach. Combined with the support of the middle rail2016It was also yesterday's low point of retreat, breaking the high point2028The nearby area is converted into support, and the Asian European plate is stepped down a lot first. Attention should be paid to the local rebound when the stock market rises and falls. The rise of the Asian and European markets is a inertia brush, while the retreat of the US market is a correction. Overall, in today's gold short-term operation guidelines, gold analysts suggest a pullback and long selling as the main approach, supplemented by a rebound and short selling, with a focus on short-term trading above2048-2050Frontline resistance, short-term focus below2028-2030Frontline support, friends must keep up with the rhythm.


　　4.14Reference for Golden Operation Strategy:


Empty order strategy:


Strategy 1: Gold rebounds2047-2050Short (buy down) 2/10 positions in batches nearby, stop loss6Points, target2035-2030Nearby, break down and take a look2027frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


Multiple order strategy:


Strategy 2: Gold Callback2028-2030Nearby batch long (buy up) 2/10 positions, stop loss6Points, target2040-2045Nearby, break down and take a look2050frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)