Guide Metallographer:4.12Today's gold trend analysis, the Federal Reserve will make difficult choices

　　goldMessage interpretation:


Wednesday(4month12day)，国际金价延续反弹势头。尽管即将公布的3Month USACPI数据可能继续显示出高通胀的顽固性，但近期爆发的银行业危机可能迫使美联储尽早结束紧缩。


United States3monthCPI数据将在北京时间20:30公布，预计核心CPI年率可能上浮0.1Percentage points to5.6%。美联储官员对是否坚持加息存在分歧。


　　费城联储主席哈克周二(4month11day)表示，他认为美联储可能很快就会结束加息。芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比表示，面对近期爆发的银行业压力，央行应对加息持谨慎态度。而纽约联储主席威廉姆斯表示，美联储的政策路径将取决于即将公布的数据。


　　CME的“联储观察”工具显示，市场预计美联储5月上调联邦基金利率25The probability of a basis point is75.1%，利率达到峰值5.00%-5.25%。并预计美联储最早在7月份启动降息。


In the3月份两家美国地区性银行突然倒闭后，金价大幅飙升，突破了2000dollar/盎司。澳新银行在一份报告中表示：“美元走软和多头买盘回流一直在支撑(gold)价格。”


　　除了美联储官员的讲话，围绕世界上最大的黄金消费国之一的中国的乐观情绪，也推动了黄金价格上涨。国际货币基金组织亚太区总裁克里希纳-斯里尼瓦桑(Krishna Srinivasan)表示，中国的反弹速度远远超过预期。


　　IG的首席市场分析师Chris Beauchamp表示，最近几周，由于银行业危机和对美国陷入衰退的担忧加剧，金价飙升，黄金投资者看涨。“黄金现在正在抓住任何反弹的机会。看来它大放异彩的时刻终于到了。”


　　不过值得注意的是，明尼阿波利斯联储主席卡什卡里提到，他对通胀回落的速度不如债券市场表现得那样乐观，尤其是在上周美国非农就业数据公布之后。而圣路易斯联储(FRED)of10Year and5年盈亏平衡通胀率在前一天刷新了一周高位，暗示通胀粘性。


Today's Gold Data:


　　20:30U.S.A3Monthly and quarterly adjustmentsCPIthe annual rate


　　20:30U.S.A3After adjusting the roseCPIMonthly rate


　　20:30U.S.A3Monthly and quarterly adjustment coreCPIthe annual rate


　　21:00英国央行行长贝利发表讲话


　　22:00Bank of Canada Announces Interest Rate Resolution


　　23:00加拿大央行行长和副行长召开新闻发布会


The next day02:00Federal Reserve Announces Minutes of Monetary Policy Meeting


The next day03:15英国央行行长贝利发表讲话


Technical analysis of gold:


　　黄金昨天从1988探底随后反弹2000上方走强，最高触及2007一线以一根大阳突破站上中轨，就意味行情可能会延续，行情走得比较强势，美盘时段行情从2000上方阴跌至1995附近后并快速反弹至2000上方，这也是因为米国经济正在放缓加息而影响的，这一消息导致美元走低，给黄金价格提供了上涨空间。静待今晚的CPI重磅数据出炉。


　　日线周期局部录得中阳，上行通道维持良好并未破位，可继续看上行，4Hour cycle local to1990附近构筑圆底形态，现录得一系列的纺锤线震荡上行破位中轨，后市仍可继续看上行。黄金4小时线呈现阶梯式上行，就是盘旋上升的态势，回落三五美金，大阳线直接抬高七八美金，这是明显的吞没上扬，同时低点也是不断的抬高，均线向上运行丝毫没有变化，持续上移，均线也是完成深V的形态，这是明显的有强势的支撑位，早盘开盘价也是站稳均线上方，这是明摆着要突破上扬，同时晚间的CPI数据必然是利多黄金，主推阳线拔高，我们现在及时调整方向回调主多。


　　1小时周期局部于阶段性底部1990附近录得大阳构筑塔形底部形态后，后市录得一系列的k线呈震荡上行。目前行情整体站稳于小时中轨，行情局部于中轨附近录得看涨吞没形态后，后续再次于中轨附近录得一系列的纺锤线震荡构筑圆底，局部可看上行。2005作为前市多空转换较为频繁的点位，根据极性转换原则，目前可视为短线支撑，今日可依托该点位继续看上行。综合来看，今日黄金短线操作思路上指南金师建议回调做多为主，反弹做空为辅，上方短期重点关注2025-2027Frontline resistance, short-term focus below2005-2007Frontline support, friends must keep up with the rhythm.


　　4.12Reference for Golden Operation Strategy:


Empty order strategy:


Strategy 1: Gold rebounds2025-2028Short (buy down) 2/10 positions in batches nearby, stop loss6Points, target2015-2010Nearby, break down and take a look2005frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


Multiple order strategy:


Strategy 2: Gold Callback2005-2008Nearby batch long (buy up) 2/10 positions, stop loss6Points, target2018-2025Nearby, break down and take a look2030frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


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