Guide Metallographer:4.12Today's gold trend analysis, USCPIProbability of suspending interest rate hikes due to fear of rising

　　goldMessage interpretation:


　　影响上，随着市场等待周三的美国通胀数据以寻找未来加息的线索，以进一步了解价格压力是否正在消退，再加上纽约联储主席威廉姆斯和芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比的鸽派言论，使得美元脱离上一交易日的高点，金价则获得了一些喘息的机会，并回升至关键的2000Above the US dollar.


Looking Forward to Today Wednesday(4month12day)：国际黄金开盘继续走强，美元指数低开走弱，对其产生提振，早盘美联储哈克言论预计美国今年经济增长不到1%，暗示经济衰退预期增强，之后美联储卡什卡利言论预计今年年底通胀率会达到3％左右，明年会更接近2％，大大减弱了通胀预将再度增强，并保持继续降低的预期，而再度利好金价。


　　整体来看，美元指数日线布林带处于缩口状态，且走势运行在中轨下方，则暗示后市将再度偏向下行，周图级别附图指标的看空信号更加明显，月图走势也将跌破中轨支撑，并展开较大且持续的回落行情，将会对金价产生较大且持续的提振反弹行情。


　　虽然美债10年期收益率的看空动能不大，或有震荡和走强的风险，但美元指数的趋跌，也将限制金价的回落空间，因而金价后市继续走强攀升的概率仍然很大。


Focus on the United States within the day3monthCPI数据，目前市场预计美国3Monthly and quarterly adjustmentsCPIThe annual rate is5.2%低于前值的6.00%，月率为0.20%，也低于前值的0.40%所以，虽然核心CPI年率同比增速为5.6%，高于前值，但是幅度甚小，故此预期上对于金价的压力有限。另外，与此同时，中国的通胀在3月份再次放缓。也暗示美国通胀也将在此放缓，因而，个人认为，晚间通胀数据，金价最终上涨走强的概率仍然很大。


　　不过，如果CPI走高并支持货币政策在强劲的非正规就业数据之后收紧，实际收益率可能会走高，从而增加持有黄金的机会成本，限制金价动力，而产生震荡回撤行情，但国际货币基金组织警告说，全球利率上升只是暂时的，低利率可能会回归，市场也并不特别关心美联储是否会在5月份再加息25个基点。随着我们进入2023年下半年，市场正在关注转折点和较低利率的信号。所以，中长期方向上，仍将看好金价走强。


Today's Gold Data:


　　20:30U.S.A3Monthly and quarterly adjustmentsCPIthe annual rate


　　20:30U.S.A3After adjusting the roseCPIMonthly rate


　　20:30U.S.A3Monthly and quarterly adjustment coreCPIthe annual rate


　　21:00英国央行行长贝利发表讲话


　　22:00Bank of Canada Announces Interest Rate Resolution


　　23:00加拿大央行行长和副行长召开新闻发布会


The next day02:00Federal Reserve Announces Minutes of Monetary Policy Meeting


The next day03:15英国央行行长贝利发表讲话


Technical analysis of gold:


　　黄金昨天从1988探底随后反弹2000上方走强，最高触及2007一线以一根大阳突破站上中轨，就意味行情可能会延续，行情走得比较强势，美盘时段行情从2000上方阴跌至1995附近后并快速反弹至2000上方，这也是因为米国经济正在放缓加息而影响的，这一消息导致美元走低，给黄金价格提供了上涨空间。静待今晚的CPI重磅数据出炉。


　　日线周期局部录得中阳，上行通道维持良好并未破位，可继续看上行，4Hour cycle local to1990附近构筑圆底形态，现录得一系列的纺锤线震荡上行破位中轨，后市仍可继续看上行。黄金4小时线呈现阶梯式上行，就是盘旋上升的态势，回落三五美金，大阳线直接抬高七八美金，这是明显的吞没上扬，同时低点也是不断的抬高，均线向上运行丝毫没有变化，持续上移，均线也是完成深V的形态，这是明显的有强势的支撑位，早盘开盘价也是站稳均线上方，这是明摆着要突破上扬，同时晚间的CPI数据必然是利多黄金，主推阳线拔高，我们现在及时调整方向回调主多。


　　1小时周期局部于阶段性底部1990附近录得大阳构筑塔形底部形态后，后市录得一系列的k线呈震荡上行。目前行情整体站稳于小时中轨，行情局部于中轨附近录得看涨吞没形态后，后续再次于中轨附近录得一系列的纺锤线震荡构筑圆底，局部可看上行。2005作为前市多空转换较为频繁的点位，根据极性转换原则，目前可视为短线支撑，今日可依托该点位继续看上行。综合来看，今日黄金短线操作思路上指南金师建议回调做多为主，反弹做空为辅，上方短期重点关注2025-2027Frontline resistance, short-term focus below2005-2007Frontline support, friends must keep up with the rhythm.


　　4.12Reference for Golden Operation Strategy:


Empty order strategy:


Strategy 1: Gold rebounds2025-2028Short (buy down) 2/10 positions in batches nearby, stop loss6Points, target2015-2010Nearby, break down and take a look2005frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


Multiple order strategy:


Strategy 2: Gold Callback2005-2008Nearby batch long (buy up) 2/10 positions, stop loss6Points, target2018-2025Nearby, break down and take a look2030frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


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