ATFX: USACPIWill inflation continue to decline when data arrives?

The reason why international financial markets are so concerned about the US inflation rate data is that it will determine the direction of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, thereby affectinggoldSilver, US stockscrude oilWait for the investment target to have an impact.2Month USACPIThe growth rate is6%It has been declining for nine consecutive months,2022The annual peak level is9.1%Accumulated decrease exceeds3%。 The inflation rate in the United States is gradually recovering to2%The moderate inflation level has become a consensus expectation in the market. Although Federal Reserve Chairman Powell insists on a radical rate hike, the market has begun to expect May to be the last rate hike by the Federal Reserve within the year. The basis is that the inflation rate level in the United States no longer requires the Federal Reserve to continue to aggressively raise interest rates.


American3Monthly and quarterly adjustmentsCPIAnnual rate, to be announced today20:30Published, the former value is6%, expected5.2%。 Considering the downward trend of inflation in the United States,CPIThe published annual rate may be even lower than expected.3Monthly and quarterly adjustment coreCPIThe annual rate is announced at the same time, with the previous value being5.5%, expected5.6%。 coreCPIExcluding the impact of fluctuations in energy and food prices. Due to the decline in US inflation rate mainly caused by the decline in international energy prices, the coreCPIThe growth rate is indeed likely to rebound. Due to the coreCPIThe month on month increase is relatively small and is not expected to have an impact on the expectation of the Federal Reserve stopping interest rate hikes.


The decline in 10-year US Treasury yields is not firm.4month6From today to present, bond yields have increased from3.29%Rebound to3.4261%During the same period, the US dollar index also showed signs of short-term strength and regained its footing102Gateway. This reflects a loosening of financial market expectations for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy.4month11On the same day, US Treasury Secretary Yellen stated that, At present, I have not seen any signs of credit contraction, although it is possible. The performance of the US economy is clearly very good, with sustained and stable employment growth, gradual decline in inflation, and strong consumer spending. Therefore, although there are still risks, I do not expect the economy to decline. Yellen's view is very representative: the US decision-makers have a very optimistic view of the future economic situation. If the performance of the US labor market is indeed consistent with Yellen's statement of "sustained and stable employment growth," then the Federal Reserve is highly likely to maintain a state of interest rate hikes. U.S.A3The unemployment rate for the month ranges from3.6%Lower to3.5%At the data level, it reflects that the labor market is quite healthy. At present, traders should maintain a relatively restrained attitude towards short selling the US dollar index.


From a technical analysis perspective,3month9The recent decline in the US dollar index has been gradually easing, and the recent rebound trend is likely to continue. However, the structure of the short selling trend in the medium to long term has not changed, and once the rebound is sufficient, it will return to the downward trend. Gold has stabilized2000dollar/Ounce level,EURUSDAlso approaching1.1Integer level, both will be affected by theCPIThe data shows short-term sharp fluctuations, but the bullish trend structure is unlikely to be disrupted.

Risk reminder, disclaimer, special statement:
There are risks in the market, and investment needs to be cautious. The above content only represents the analyst's personal views and does not constitute any operational suggestions. Please do not consider this report as the sole reference. At different times, analysts' perspectives may change, and updates will not be notified separately.

2023-04-12