Yu Yue on Jin:4.11Gold shock consolidation brewing, analysis and operation of today's market trend...

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​近期有哪些消息面影响goldcrude oilTrend? Where is the trend of gold going?

       Monday(4month10day)，受一波被一位贵金属策略师称为“例行获利了结”行情的影响，黄金价格回落。美元走强也令黄金承压。美市盘中，现货黄金持续走低并刷新日低至1981.45US dollar, falling from daily highs25美元。随着美元走强，黄金价格下跌。衡量美元兑一篮子货币强弱的洲际交易所(ICE)美元指数上升近0.8%, to102.81。在上周的非农数据发布过后，本周市场的焦点将是通胀数据包括美国3月份的消费者价格指数(CPI)And Producer Price Index(PPI)。但有迹象显示，美国反通胀进程正在加快步伐，允许美联储尽早暂停加息，这可能会使金价回升至近期高点。黄金ETF流入的资金增加，基金经理将净多头头寸提高至一年多来最高水平，以及各国央行近几个月增加黄金储备，这些都是金价看涨的催化剂。

​      美国本周的数据点将是周三上午发布的3Monthly Consumer Price Index(CPI)报告，预计3月份消费者价格指数同比增长5.1%, and2月份的数据为增长6.0%。值得注意的是，近日有市场消息称，美国第一大银行摩根大通持有巨量黄金空头头寸，该头寸的规模据称高达410000 tons(另一种说法是约2.5万亿美元的黄金futures及其它衍生品)，超过其总资产规模。如果黄金继续上升，其持有的黄金头寸面临爆仓的风险。目前摩根大通总资产约2.53万亿美元，是美国第一大银行，同时也是与花旗银行、汇丰银行一起的成为稳定全球金融体系最重要的三大银行之一。非农数据强化了美联储5月份加息的预期，短线美元和美债收益率存在进一步反弹机会，上周金价涨幅较大，短线金价仍面临进一步回调风险，关注10Daily moving average1987.18and1980关口支撑。但无论是对欧美银行业动荡的担忧，还是美联储等全球多数央行已经进入加息周期尾期的预期，都将在中长线吸引逢低买盘支撑金价，这将限制金价的回调空间，并有望给金价提供进一步上涨机会。



4.11Analysis of gold market trend:

       黄金技术面分析：黄金日内大幅低开后回弹，但在上方测试5Daily line2005一线后又震荡回落，欧盘前期黄金低点再度回落10Daily line1990下方，不过随后行情震荡回弹，但在2003一线有表现承压，晚盘前伴随着美元的回弹，黄金上涨也再度受阻，行情有所再转跌回修。

　　从日内黄金的走势节奏来看，整体技术状态是偏空的，无论是日线级别的严重超买和顶部背离信号，还是日线级别已经承压5Daily line2005，保留今日小时图级别回弹受阻2003一线，都预示黄金可能还会有技术上的回修需要，技术上继续关注下方10Daily line1985一线争夺，今日对此支撑有刺破动作，也就意味着行情还是有进一步扩大下跌空间的可能性，如果晚间再破1985，那么下方或可期待1980-78，甚至未来1-2日可看20Daily line1970附近回撤的预期。

​      4小时周期局部酝酿大阴构筑下降三法形态，且行情处于中轨之下，后市可看下行。目前1Hourly cycleMa均线交叉向下指向看跌，1Hour cycle and15Minute cycleKDJ交叉向下指向看跌，但目前15Minute cycleKDJ处于超卖状态，短线仍有上行动能，建议反弹空。1Hourly cycleRSI并未见背离信号，后市继续看下行。综合来看，今日黄金短线操作思路上建议反弹做空为主，回调做多为辅，上方短期重点关注1998-2000Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1980-1978Frontline support, friends must keep up with the rhythm. To control position and stop loss issues, strictly set stop losses, and do not operate against orders. The recent market turbulence has been significant, with opportunities and risks coexisting. Control risks and increase returns.



4.11Reference for Golden Operation Strategy:

Empty order strategy:

       Strategy 1: Gold rebounds1996-1998Short (buy down) 2/10 positions in batches nearby, stop loss6Points, target1990-1985Nearby, break down and take a look1980frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)




Multiple order strategy:

        Strategy 2: Gold Callback1978-1980Nearby batch long (buy up) 2/10 positions, stop loss6Points, target1990-1995Nearby, break down and take a look2000frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)

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Yu Yue's Discussion on Gold - To my friends who invest, let me express my sincere words:

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