Guide Metallographer:4.4Today's gold trend analysis shows that gold prices have bottomed out and rebounded, leading to strong gains

Market Review:


InternationalgoldMonday(4month3day)强势收涨，开盘价1971.24dollar/Ounces, highest price1990.32dollar/Ounces, lowest price1949.57dollar/Ounces, closing price1987.76dollar/ounce.


Interpretation of the Golden News:


The United States announced on Monday3monthISMmanufacturingPMIRecorded46.3, lower than market expectations47.5, previous value is47.7； U.S.A2月营建支出月率录得-0.1%, lower than market expectations0.00%, previous value is-0.1%。 U.S.A3monthMarkitmanufacturingPMIFinal value recorded49.2, lower than market expectations49.3, previous value is49.3.


Commentary states that the United States2月营建支出下降，因为在抵押贷款成本上升的情况下，对独栋住宅建筑的投资保持了下降趋势。今日公布的数据显示，2月份建筑支出下滑0.1%。近段时间以来，美联储为遏制高通胀而大举加息，住房市场首当其冲受到影响，住宅投资已连续七个季度收缩，这是自2007-2009年经济大萧条时期引发房地产泡沫破裂以来持续时间最长的一次收缩。不过最糟糕的时期可能已经过去。抵押贷款利率在最近两家美国地区性银行倒闭后呈下降趋势，这引发了人们对银行业风险蔓延的担忧。然而，由于信贷状况收紧，房地产市场并未走出困境。


　　IHS Markit高级经济学家表示，3月份，美国制造业继续显示出令人担忧的趋势。尽管产出自去年10月以来首次出现增长，但增长幅度很小，这主要是在供应链压力前所未有地降低后提高产量支撑的。投入资源的及时交付使企业能够处理积压的工作，但由于利率上升和通货膨胀导致客户支出承压，需求稀少，这表明如果国内外客户的胃口几乎没有变化，那么商品生产商将面临挑战。不过令人鼓舞的是，随着长期空缺职位的候选人被找到，企业能够再次扩大工厂劳动力产能，尽管速度非常缓慢。


　　美联储理事库克表示，劳动力市场仍然紧张，仍能看到通胀的影响。通胀正在回落，但“我们还没有达到目标”。美联储关注通胀，就业市场表现良好。考虑到劳动力市场的强劲，我们仍将看到通胀，但我们已经看到工资增长放缓了不少。


　　美联储布拉德：美联储的利率需要高于5%，我的预测是利率高于中值。预计通胀将更具粘性，而劳动力市场强劲。


　　牛津经济研究院首席美国经济学家Oren KlachkinandRyan Sweet在一份报告中表示，撇开新冠疫情爆发时的大幅下滑不谈，美国制造商可能在2023年经历全球金融危机以来最糟糕的一年。他们表示，ISM 3月份的数据显示，3月制造业活动疲软，需求疲软和信贷环境收紧可能导致未来几个月制造业活动萎缩。这些经济学家表示，以商业部门为最终客户的细分行业将面临最严峻的挑战，因为他们认为，这是经济中最容易受到即将到来的挑战影响的领域。


　　美国达拉斯联储发布报告称，其辖区内的银行贷款需求水平已降至2020年春季新冠疫情爆发以来的最弱水平，这可能是在连续加息和银行业动荡后信贷紧缩的一个信号。在3month21Solstice29day(多家银行倒闭)的银行业状况调查中，达拉斯联储整体贷款需求指数降至-45.6, for2020year5月以来的最低水平，创2017年开始此类调查以来的最严重环比下跌。达拉斯联储表示，“一些受访银行提及担心最近的金融动荡导致消费信心减弱”。因而，银行贷款规模下降。对消费者的贷款大幅下降，相关指标触及-33.4，为连续第五个月下滑。


The world's largest goldETF--SPDR Gold TrustIncrease in position compared to the previous day2.02Tons, current position is930.04Tons.


According toCMEFederal Reserve Observation: The Federal Reserve5The probability of maintaining interest rates unchanged on a monthly basis is43.3%Interest rate hike25Bps to5.00%-5.25%The probability of the interval is56.7%； reach6The probability of maintaining interest rates unchanged on a monthly basis is42.7%Accumulated interest rate increase25The probability of a basis point is56.5%Accumulated interest rate increase50The probability of a basis point is0.8%。


Today's Gold Data:


　　12:30Federal Reserve of Australia Announces Interest Rate Decision


　　14:00Germany2Monthly adjusted trade account


　　17:00eurozone2monthPPIMonthly rate


　　22:00U.S.A2Monthly factory order rate


Technical analysis of gold:


　　昨日黄金技术面整体迎来多空宽幅震荡大洗盘，亚盘承压1964关口快速下跌走弱，午后进一步向下刺破1950Arrival at the checkpoint1949附近企稳回升，欧盘整体价格并未延续走弱，而是迎来深v反弹回升并在美盘前加速拉升重回1970上方维持多头强势震荡，晚间价格二次回踩企稳1972关口迎来加速拉升破高收盘，日kLine closing bottomed out and rebounded, breaking through the high and rising middle yang, with overall prices in1960下方完成多空深v洗盘，今日下方支撑关注昨日美盘颈线位1972-75附近，日内回撤企稳此位置可先多一次看延续回升，上方短线压力关注1990上方，目前来看整体价格大概了围绕1970-1990区域继续以时间换空间宽幅震荡运行，昨日深v洗盘走势将价格再度拉回多头强势区域，整体继续看高位宽幅震荡；


　　从日线结构来看，守住中轨看多头整理蓄势，以时间换空间，反复的下探回升，等待蓄力冲破2000关口，时间上可能稍有延后。目前暂时处于整理当中。4The hourly chart rose steadily from the lower track to the upper track yesterday. It broke the high point of last Friday, but is still on the upper track of the triangle range and has been suppressed. Today, we will still pay attention to it1990Nearby resistance strength. The strength of the European market is determined by its strength, and if it breaks through, it will continue to be bullish. If it does not break through, it will continue to be bullish1990-1960三角区间来回震荡。若是欧盘能够强势突破1990阻力，则盘中临盘顺势跟进，目前未突破前，亚盘也不敢过分看高，以免过山车式的来回震荡洗盘。综合来看，今日黄金短线操作思路上指南金师建议回调做多为主，反弹做空为辅，上方短期重点关注1990-2000Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1973-1975Frontline support, friends must keep up with the rhythm.


　　4.4Reference for Golden Operation Strategy:


Empty order strategy:


Strategy 1: Gold rebounds1995-1998Short (buy down) 2/10 positions in batches nearby, stop loss6Points, target1990-1980Nearby, break down and take a look1975frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


Multiple order strategy:


Strategy 2: Gold Callback1975-1977Nearby batch long (buy up) 2/10 positions, stop loss6Points, target1985-1995Nearby, break down and take a look2000frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


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