Guide Metallographer:3.30Today's gold trend analysis shows that the short-term decline in gold prices remains volatile

Market Review:


InternationalgoldWednesday(3month29day)Volatile closing price1966.52dollar/Ounces, highest price1975.09dollar/Ounces, lowest price1958.51dollar/Ounces, closing price1961.70dollar/ounce.


Interpretation of the Golden News:


Wednesday's announcement of the United States2月成屋签约销售指数月率录得0.8%Higher than market expectations-2.3%, previous value is8.1%。


Commentary states that the United States2月成屋签约销售指数月率录得0.8%Market expectations are-2.3%，这表明尽管目前市场上充斥着看空美国房地产的人，但数据并不配合。1月份房屋销售大幅上升，表明有大量买家在离场观望。不过更大的谜题是，为什么库存仍然如此之低。我们相信这是因为拥有30年固定抵押贷款的人宁愿把它们租出去，也不愿卖掉。大流行时期的低于3%of30年固定利率是一代人锁定成本的机会，并将在未来几十年内给房主带来红利。


　　美联储巴尔表示，美联储存在重大监管失误。将关注即将到来的数据，金融状况，然后以逐次会议的方式做出利率决议。


　　穆迪分析首席经济学家Zandi对美国众议院预算委员会表示，财政部“非常规措施”可能会在8月中旬耗尽。“当我们接近8月中旬的所谓Xdate(X Date)时，金融系统的压力会越来越大，”Zandi表示，“从最近的事件中我们可以看到，鉴于银行业危机，这个系统在这个时间点非常脆弱，给投资者再加上债务上限问题会特别不合时宜。


The world's largest goldETF--SPDR Gold TrustIncrease in position compared to the previous day1.74Tons, current position is929.47Tons.


According toCMEFederal Reserve Observation: The Federal Reserve5The probability of maintaining interest rates unchanged on a monthly basis is62.4%Interest rate hike25Bps to5.00%-5.25%The probability of the interval is37.6%； reach6Monthly interest rate reduction25The probability of a basis point is0%The probability of maintaining interest rates unchanged is62%Accumulated interest rate increase25The probability of a basis point is37.8%Accumulated interest rate increase50The probability of a basis point is0.2%。


　　今日黄金数据


　　17:00eurozone3Final value of monthly consumer confidence index


　　17:00eurozone3Monthly Industrial and Economic Prosperity Index


　　20:00Germany3monthCPIInitial monthly rate


　　20:30From the United States to3month25Number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the current week


　　20:30US Q4 ActualGDPYearly quarterly rate final value


　　20:30美国第四季度实际个人消费支出季率终值


　　20:30美国第四季度核心PCEThe final value of the annualized quarterly rate of the price index


The next day01:00美联储卡什卡利发表讲话


Technical analysis of gold:


　　昨日金价长时间维持高位整理不能形成有效的上破，伴随的回撤风险会逐步加大，昨日黄金价格反弹1974遇阻，最低回撤至1957, closing on1964。从技术面来看，金价上行面临趋势线压制，多次上扬均未实现有效突破，当然下跌中的力度也不是很强，因此就不过度看空，主因是基本面市场环境有利于金价再涨，所以鉴于此暂时大趋势还是看涨。


　　目前黄金属于大涨后的震荡走势，从4小时级别上看，震荡呈现收敛三角形形态，震荡的区间逐步收窄！这也符合行情运行的规律！一般来说，大行情后对应大的震荡调整周期，震荡的幅度也是由宽收窄，由活跃变为不活跃！而行情再次启动的时候就是行情再次活跃的时间！


　　现在的黄金的震荡范围逐步收窄为1945-1980区间内！没有消息事件刺激的情况下，黄金破位的概率很小！继续区间内来回！目前黄金的价格前低位成为有效支撑，能否再度支撑上涨不能肯定，但能肯定的是，现货黄金价格再跌已无空间优势，势能方面更是乏力，往下延伸强支撑位于1935-1933region(不一定到达). at present4小时图进入三角区间收缩震荡，短期维持在区间内来回拉锯，突破且站稳1975，那么多头延续可见1980-1986高位。暂时上方关注1970-1975的承压，下方关注1952-1955的支撑，不过今日主思路就维持区间震荡。综合来看，今日黄金短线操作思路上指南金师建议回调做多为主，反弹做空为辅，上方短期重点关注1980-1985Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1958-1960Frontline support, friends must keep up with the rhythm.


　　3.30Reference for Golden Operation Strategy:


Empty order strategy:


Strategy 1: Gold rebounds1970-1973Short (buy down) 2/10 positions in batches nearby, stop loss6Points, target1965-1960Nearby, break down and take a look1955frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


Multiple order strategy:


Strategy 2: Gold Callback1952-1955Nearby batch long (buy up) 2/10 positions, stop loss6Points, target1965-1970Nearby, break down and take a look1975frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)