Guide Metallographer:3.29Today's gold trend analysis shows that gold prices have rebounded from a low point and maintained their upward trend

Market Review:


InternationalgoldTuesday(3month28day)强势收涨，开盘价1956.77dollar/Ounces, highest price1969.79dollar/Ounces, lowest price1949.00dollar/Ounces, closing price1966.48dollar/ounce.


Interpretation of the Golden News:


The United States announced on Tuesday3Consumer confidence index of the monthly consultation chamber recorded104.2Higher than market expectations101, previous value is102.9。


　　桑坦德银行首席经济学家Stephen Stanley分析称，美国3月谘商会消费者信心指数的上升不应令人意外，因为这与劳动力市场的走势密切一致，尽管该调查的截止点是在硅谷银行倒闭之后。数据显示，虽然消费者对就业市场的看法在3月份略有下降，但49.1%的人仍认为就业机会充足。Stanley表示，事实上，谘商会并没有提到调查后期由于银行业动荡而导致的信心转变，而密歇根大学3月份发布的消费者信心报告则特别指出，在硅谷银行破产后，消费者信心并没有发生太大变化。不过，Stanley称，如果美国家庭因银行倒闭而受到惊吓，这可能会在4月份的数据中体现出来。


　　美联储布拉德表示，监管足可解决金融压力，联储加息只为针对通胀。由于银行业危机，最近几周金融压力有所增加，但可以通过监管政策而非利率来控制。布拉德在文章中称：“在我个人看来，持续适当的宏观审慎政策可以遏制当前环境下的金融压力，而适当的货币政策可继续给通胀带来下行压力。在最近银行倒闭和动荡发生后，金融压力一直在上升，宏观审慎的政策反应恰当且迅速。为了限制对宏观经济的损害，监管机构已经使用了为应对2007-09年金融危机而开发或首次使用的一些工具，并准备在必要时采取额外行动。”


　　美国总统拜登周二表示，他已尽一切可能，利用现有机构来解决银行业危机，但危机“尚未结束”。硅谷银行和签名银行的接连破产，引发了投资者对银行业更广泛的信心丧失，重创了股市，并引发了对全面金融危机的担忧。在上周达成的救助瑞士信贷的交易，以及本周向第一公民银行出售硅谷银行资产的交易，帮助市场恢复了一些平静，但投资者仍担心金融体系中可能存在更多问题。


　　报道显示，为了解决导致硅谷银行和其他美国地区性银行崩溃的根本问题，美国高级金融官员周二勾勒出可能是几十年来最大规模的银行业监管改革蓝图。美联储负责银行监管事宜的副主席巴尔在参议院银行委员会听证会上表示，“硅谷银行倒闭证明了我们需要加强银行体系韧性”，有必要对资产规模超过1000亿美元的银行实施更严格的资本和流动性标准。美国联邦存款保险公司(FDIC)chairmanGruenberg称，硅谷银行和签名银行的问题说明资产规模在1000亿美元或以上的银行会对金融稳定产生影响。有必要强化对这些机构的审慎监管，特别是在资本、流动性和利率风险方面。财政部负责国内金融事务的副部长Nellie Liang表示，“我们必须确保银行的监督和监管政策适合银行今天面临的风险和挑战”，并期待即将出台的监管提案。


　　花旗表示，美联储仍低估了今年通胀的持久性，尤其是在短期内。花旗经济学家表示，美联储上周发布的更新后的经济预测摘要显示，2023年的通胀预测仅被非常温和地上调，核心PCE通胀从3.5%Up to3.6%。但花旗预计，到今年年底，核心PCE通胀率将达到4.3%，未来几个月的强劲通胀将迫使央行继续加息。花旗认为通胀上升的因素之一是3monthPMI数据强于预期。


　　牛津经济研究院高级经济学家Tamara Basic Vasiljev在一份报告中表示，尽管当前银行业危机与2008年全球金融危机的导火索有很大相似性，但目前家庭财务状况更强劲，这些关键差异使得危机不太可能重演。在新冠疫情期间大幅上涨的房价现正在下降，抵押贷款利率在升至前所未有的水平后也在逆转。此外，美国家庭现在的财务状况要好得多，贷款价值比和债务收入比都较低，储蓄也健康得多。这在一定程度上缓冲了房地产市场可能带来的冲击，这在2008年金融危机时期是没有的。而且现在劳动力市场看起来更有弹性。


The world's largest goldETF--SPDR Gold TrustIncrease in position compared to the previous day3.76Tons, current position is927.73Tons.


According toCMEFederal Reserve Observation: The Federal Reserve5The probability of maintaining interest rates unchanged on a monthly basis is62.4%Interest rate hike25Bps to5.00%-5.25%The probability of the interval is37.6%； reach6Monthly interest rate reduction25The probability of a basis point is5%The probability of maintaining interest rates unchanged is60.4%Accumulated interest rate increase25The probability of a basis point is34.5%。


Today's Gold Data:


　　14:00Germany4monthGfkConsumer confidence index


　　16:00Switzerland3monthZEWInvestor confidence index


　　16:30britain2Monthly central bank mortgage loan permit


　　22:00U.S.A2Monthly rate of contracted sales index for completed housing


　　22:00美国官员就银行危机做证词陈述


Technical analysis of gold:


　　昨日黄金技术面整体在震荡交投中迎来探底回升企稳修复，亚欧盘价格承压早间高点1964关口出现连续回落延续下跌，午后价格向下刺破1950Arrival at the checkpoint1949附近企稳回升，并在美盘前后强势回升突破早间开跌口1964一线陷入横盘震荡，凌晨价格二次回踩下探并企稳1958一线迎来多头突破站稳1970Strong closing at the checkpoint, dailyk线报收探底回升震荡中阳，整体价格在二次回踩下探并企稳1949关口迎来多头强势修复，短周期再度进入到多空宽幅震荡区间运行，今日上方压力关注前期4Hour top to bottom conversion bit1985-90附近，下方支撑关注昨日美盘二次回踩低点1958-60附近，日内继续依托此区间看多空震荡运行节奏；


　　从当前盘面来看，日图来看走出了循环模式，如果按此今天还是会收阳，价格还将继续测试日图的侧压力，而四小时至昨天发出买入信号以后，目前属于持仓信号，也就是多的不变，下方一是空档位，二是侧压力形成了顶底转换，而早盘小时图出现弱空信号，所以对于今天操作上无需太多分析，大周期决定日内最终趋势，小时图修正完出现转折K买入，而如果涨强势最多到30分钟下线，如果破了至少上涨也得到美盘了，欧盘破了就很容易形成新的震荡，综合来看，今日黄金短线操作思路上指南金师建议回调做多为主，反弹做空为辅，上方短期重点关注1985-1990Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1958-1960Frontline support, friends must keep up with the rhythm.


　　3.29Reference for Golden Operation Strategy:


Empty order strategy:


Strategy 1: Gold rebounds1985-1988Short (buy down) 2/10 positions in batches nearby, stop loss6Points, target1975-1965Nearby, break down and take a look1960frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


Multiple order strategy:


Strategy 2: Gold Callback1958-1960Nearby batch long (buy up) 2/10 positions, stop loss6Points, target1970-1980Nearby, break down and take a look1990frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


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