Guide Metallographer:3.27Today's gold trend analysis,IMF称金融稳定风险已增加

　　goldMessage interpretation:


　　3month26Day,IMF总裁格奥尔基耶娃周日表示，金融稳定面临的风险已经增加，并呼吁继续保持警惕，尽管发达经济体的行动已经缓解了市场压力。


　　她重申，2023年将是充满挑战的一年，受疫情、乌克兰战争和货币紧缩的影响，全球经济增长将放缓至3%following.


　　她在中国发展高层论坛(China Development Forum)上表示，即便2024年的经济前景有所改善，全球经济增速仍将远低于3.8%的历史平均水平，整体前景依然疲弱。


　　IMFExpected global economic growth this year2.9%，并将在下个月发布新的预测。


　　格奥尔基耶娃表示，发达经济体的政策制定者在银行倒闭后对金融稳定风险做出了果断回应，但即便如此，仍需保持警惕。他表示：“我们将继续密切监测事态发展，并评估其对全球经济前景和全球金融稳定的潜在影响。她补充说，IMF正在密切关注最脆弱的国家，尤其是债务水平高的低收入国家。


　　她还警告说，地缘经济的分裂可能会把世界分裂成相互竞争的经济集团，导致“一种危险的分裂，让每个人都更穷、更不安全”。


　　格奥尔基耶娃表示，中国经济强劲反弹，预计2023yearGDPincrease5.2%，这为世界经济带来了一些希望，预计2023年中国将占全球增长的三分之一左右。她说，IMF估计，中国GDP每增长1个百分点，就会带动其他亚洲经济体增长0.3Percentage points.


　　综合以上消息可以看到，IMF预测金融稳定面临的风险增加，不太看好全球经济前景。这可能提升市场的避险情绪，从而利好金价，投资者需对此保持警惕。


Technical analysis of gold:


　　黄金月K之中，本月是破位向上的一个月K走势，随机指标金叉，利好长期上升；长期趋势之中，1610-1810的上涨趋势通道还在，没有跌破，因此，长期趋势，暂时不看好长期下跌；周K上周是十字阴K，形态上，本周有望延续回落走势；随机指标，目前还是钝化的状态，暂时指标信号不够明确；但是形态上，整体上有持续回落的概率。一方面做短线上的回撤，一方面做周K级别的形态上的延续回落空处理。


　　上周受风险时间影响黄金一度刷新近一年以来的新高，随着风险事件热度消退要注意黄金随之出现的调整。黄金在日线走势上暂时维持在高位震荡中目前价格承压于2010一带，目前短周期均线由前期向上发散开始逐步勾头向下在日线走势上有开始逐步走弱的迹象。4小时级别走势上目前出现一定的背离K线也持续承压短周期均线偏弱运行，价格重心开始不断下移。倾向于在短期走势上黄金下方还能有延续调整的空间。


　　上周五冲高回落，构建双顶结构，调整开启，早盘依托1990的压力反弹空，看跌。黄金周五虽然再次冲高，但是依旧受到前高压力的压制，并且大幅回落，日线收阴。当前行情是否真正上涨结束尚不确定，但至少会进行一大波调整，而现在的大震荡区间就是1930-2000区间内。当前行情靠近上方压力位置，依托前高的阻力，看跌做空，不破不立，只要不再突破新高，行情波段回调的概率极大。早盘压力位置反弹先空看跌，上方的防守2000关口，下方支撑1935区域。综合来看，今日黄金短线操作思路上指南金师建议回调做多为主，反弹做空为辅，上方短期重点关注1985-1988Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1962-1965Frontline support, friends must keep up with the rhythm.


　　3.27Reference for Golden Operation Strategy:


Empty order strategy:


Strategy 1: Gold rebounds1985-1988Short (buy down) 2/10 positions in batches nearby, stop loss6Points, target1975-1970Nearby, break down and take a look1965frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


Multiple order strategy:


Strategy 2: Gold Callback1962-1965Nearby batch long (buy up) 2/10 positions, stop loss6Points, target1975-1980Nearby, break down and take a look1985frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


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