Yu Yue on Jin:3.24黄金多头持续调整中，黄金走势分析及空单...

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　goldMarket trend analysis——

Friday（3month24日）亚市盘中，现货黄金窄幅震荡，目前交投于1986dollar/盎司附近，守住了隔夜大部分涨幅。因为美联储在加息的同时释放了结束货币紧缩周期的信号，市场对美联储终端利率预期进一步下降，美债收益率走弱，给金价提供上涨动能，美国银行(BofA)和瑞银周四下调了对美联储终端利率的预期，此前美联储暗示可能因银行业的动荡而暂停加息行动。美国公债收益率周四继续下跌，此前一天美联储加息25个基点，但暗示在最近两家美国银行倒闭后即将暂停进一步加息。美联储主席鲍威尔周三努力就银行系统的稳健性向投资者保证，他称硅谷银行管理层“严重失误”，但该行的倒闭并不表明银行系统存在更广泛的弱点。整体来看，美国就业数据依然强劲，欧洲央行仍偏向进一步加息，这令黄金多头有所顾忌，但英国央行已经接近加息周期尾期，市场也下调美联储终端利率预期，美债收益率走弱，地缘局势紧张，欧美银行业动荡，这些都有望给金价提供进一步上涨机会，

　　技术面上，黄金周四延续涨势，启稳1966一线回升收复失地，重新摸高2003.0高位，虽然尾盘收回之下，但日线双连阳收复了周初的回撤失地，如昨日日评一致，日线止跌震荡回升，重新进涨势结构。昨日在下探启稳后，波动基数较大，更考验进场点位。亚欧盘整理，美盘放量。留意这种止跌启稳的节奏找机会切入。今日周线收官之作，周线大概率还是收高，就看能否突破2010高点进一步延伸空间，整体处于上升结构当中。4小时图周初回踩黄金分割点0.382位置止跌启稳，回踩是修正，而回踩的位置0.382是属于较强势的修正，周尾收复失地，重新去摸高，目前4小时图重新步入上升浪形当中，或许将推动第三浪上涨。目前布林道中轨即是昨日的低点支撑，点位盘中临盘为准。强势不深调，深调转震荡，若是直接突破周初高点，则欧盘稍有回踩积极跟进做多。目前还处于考验高点当中。综合来看，今日黄金短线操作思路上建议上方短期重点关注2000-2010-2018Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1978-1965Frontline support.





       crude oilMarket trend analysis——

Thursday(3month23day)，国际油价小幅走低，美联储主席鲍威尔强调世界最大经济体面临信贷风险，且上周美国原油库存增幅超过预期。但美元疲软让油价仍有上行空间。NYMEX原油后市上看72.64美元。美国能源信息署(EIA)的最新数据显示，上周美国原油库存意外上升至近两年来的最高水平。截至3month17During the current week, crude oil inventory increased111.7Ten thousand barrels, to4.812Billion barrels, for2021year5月以来新高。分析师此前预计减少156.5Ten thousand barrels.EIA的数据也显示，美国原油和石油产品的总出口量创下每天近1200万桶的新高，远高于任何其他国家的供应水平。花旗分析师在报告中表示：“尽管关于美国2023年石油产量增长前景的悲观言论四起，成本通胀被夸大且资本支出走低，但最新的EIA周报证实了美国石油对全球市场的关键作用。”

　　原油昨日线级别震荡下跌后反弹；MACDDead fork,KDJ金叉，短线走势变动较大，一方面，有点倒V反转的迹象，另一方面，油价似乎在进行破位下跌后的回踩确认，上方留意2month6Daily low point72.24附近阻力，若能收复该位置，则增加后市看涨信号；进一步阻力在21Daily moving average73.93Nearby,2month23日低点阻力也在该位置附近，3month10Resistance at daily low points74.70附近。不过，在顶破2month6Daily low point72.24前，仍需提防油价重回跌势的可能性，下方初步支撑在5Daily moving average68.70附近，周二低点支撑在66.89附近，若失守该支撑，则增加短线看空信号；进一步支撑分别参考3month17Daily low point65.22和近期低点64.10附近位置。综合来看，原油今日短线操作思路上建议反弹高空为主，上方短期关注71.5-72Frontline resistance, short-term focus below67.7-68.2Frontline support.


Yu Yue's Discussion on Gold - To my friends who invest, let me express my sincere words:

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