Guide Metallographer:3.23今日黄金走势分析，黄金多头守低是关键

　　goldMessage interpretation:


Thursday(3month23day)，国际金价延续隔夜涨势，因美联储暗示即将暂停加息，美元指数创2month3Recently, it has reached a new low101.924，使得美元计价的黄金变得更具吸引力。但美联储明年政策宽松程度或不及多数人三个月前预期，这限制了金价升势。


　　金价隔夜收涨逾1.5%，尽管美联储如期加息25个基点，但暗示在近期美国两家银行倒闭后可能会暂停进一步加息。黄金传统上被视为对冲通胀和经济不确定性的工具。


　　大华银行集团的高级经济学家Alvin Liew称：“在货币政策声明中，美联储保持对经济和就业市场的乐观看法，但提到美国银行系统，更重要的是FOMC声明的关键部分调整为‘委员会预计进一步加息可能是合适的，以实现货币政策立场具有足够限制性，使通胀率在一段时间内恢复到2%’。相比2月份的声明‘在目标范围内持续加息将是适当的’，这听起来不太自信。虽然FOMC成员仍然关注通胀压力，但增长前景越来越偏向于下行，这意味着其加息周期会带来更多负面影响。”


　　MKS PAMP SA金属策略主管Nicky Shiels表示：“尽管语言细节暗示鲍威尔仍在施压通胀，但随着金融和经济不确定性增加，美联储加息次数减少，处于观望状态的贵金属投资者将重新入场。”


　　美联储政策制定者指出，今年只会再加息一次，但明年政策的宽松程度将低于三个月前大多数人认为合适的水准。鲍威尔在新闻发布会上警告称，美联储将采取的措施将“足够”压低通胀率降至2%，并在必要时加息。


ButTastylive全球宏观主管Ilya Spivak指出：“我们从美联储主席鲍威尔那里听到的大部分内容实际上都强调，美联储仍处于抗通胀模式......他非常明确地表示今年不会降息。”


　　大华银行的Liew补充道：“鉴于FOMC声明中‘不那么坚定’的措辞和鲍威尔(关于货币紧缩工作减少)的评论，我们下调利率峰值至5.25%(之前为5.75%)，2023year5monthFOMC会议将是最后一次加息，幅度25个基点。但我们预计今年不会降息，5.25%的终端利率将持续到2023年底部。”


Today's Gold Data:


　　16:30Swiss Central Bank Announces Interest Rate Resolution


　　17:00Swiss Central Bank Governor Jordan Holds a Press Conference


　　20:00Bank of England Announces Interest Rate Resolutions and Meeting Minutes


　　20:30From the United States to3month18Number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the current week


　　20:30Fourth quarter US current account


　　22:00U.S.A2Annualized total monthly sales of new homes


　　今日技术面分析：


　　昨天日内窄幅震荡，黄金市场早盘开盘在1939The position of the market has slightly increased and given1946After the market fluctuated and fell, the daily line reached its lowest point1933的位置后行情拉升，凌晨时段行情受到美联储鸽派决议和讲话影响强势拉升，日线最高触及到了1978的位置后行情宽幅整理日线最终收线在了1969的位置后行情以一根上影线长于下影线的大阳线收线，而这样的形态收尾后，日线回踩确认完成，利空出尽背景下今日的行情延续多。


　　日线周期于阶段性高点2009附近录得黄昏之星形态后，现局部再次录得大阳，但行情仍处于黄昏之星形态之中，后市仍可继续看下行，4小时周期录得大阳构筑塔形底部形态，后续录得小阴且行情处于中轨，同时行情仍处于强阻力位1984下方，后市需重点关注1984这一点位的得失情况，高位谨慎追多。1小时周期的行情局部站稳于由1935and1937组成的支撑趋势线之上，后续录得大阳破位1960一线，目前局部再次录得长下影线的十字线和小阴，短线有滞涨迹象，上方可关注1980-84区间阻力得失。


Currently1Hourly cyclema均线交叉向上指向看涨，但如晟富之前所说：ma均线并不具备摸顶功能，故建议高位谨慎追多。1Hourly cycleKDJ交叉向上指向看涨，15Minute cycleKDJ交叉向下指向看跌，信号矛盾，可暂时观望。1Hourly cycleRSI并未随行情新高而创新高，呈顶背离，后市可看回落。综合来看，今日黄金短线操作思路上指南金师建议回调做多为主，反弹做空为辅，上方短期重点关注1980-1984Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1955-1960Frontline support, friends must keep up with the rhythm.


　　3.23Reference for Golden Operation Strategy:


Empty order strategy:


Strategy 1: Gold rebounds1980-1982Short (buy down) 2/10 positions in batches nearby, stop loss6Points, target1970-1965Nearby, break down and take a look1960frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


Multiple order strategy:


Strategy 2: Gold Callback1960-1962Nearby batch long (buy up) 2/10 positions, stop loss6Points, target1970-1980Nearby, break down and take a look1985frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


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