Guide Metallographer:3.22今日黄金走势分析，美联储加息预期升温

Market Review:


InternationalgoldTuesday(3month21day)Close down again, opening price1973.63dollar/Ounces, highest price1984.97dollar/Ounces, lowest price1943.05dollar/Ounces, closing price1947.99dollar/ounce.


Interpretation of the Golden News:


The United States announced on Tuesday2Annualized total sales of completed houses45810000 households, higher than market expectations420Ten thousand households, with a previous value of400Ten thousand households.


Commentary states that the United States2月成屋销售飙升至六个月来最快增速，因购房者抓住抵押贷款利率小幅下降和房价小幅回落的机会。周二公布的数据显示，美国2The total monthly sales of completed houses are annualized as458万户，较1月份跃升14.5%。NARchief economist Lawrence Yun表示，购房者意识到抵押贷款利率的变化，正在利用利率下降的机会。此外，他们看到，在房价下跌和当地经济增加就业岗位的地区，销售增长更为强劲。


　　美国财长耶伦表示，尽管最近受到压力，但银行系统依然稳健。我们致力于采取措施，缓解金融稳定风险。我们需要重新审视当前的银行业监管，但现在决定监管变革还为时过早。国会采取行动暂停或提高债务上限“至关重要”。


　　美国匹兹堡大学经济学系教授Daniel Berkowitz表示，有一种观点认为，近期银行业的动荡可能导致贷款环境收紧，这相当于美联储再次加息。但Berkowitz认为，美联储在过于强烈地宣传“暂时性通胀”的说法后面临压力，并认为美联储明天加息25个基点的可能性更大。Berkowitz表示不会对美联储战略性的暂停加息感到惊讶，但美联储有可能认为，暂停加息将向市场发出一个信号，即美国银行业目前的状况比看上去更糟，并可能引发进一步的恐慌。


　　瑞银经济学家在一份研究报告中说，尽管仍保持下降趋势，目前美国的通胀率可能高于此前预期。瑞银将美国2023年核心个人消费支出年度通胀预测上调0.25Percentage points, to2.75%。而美联储的目标是2%。经济学家们表示，压低物价涨幅的因素包括“经济疲软、工资增长放缓、市场租金放缓和进口价格持平”。基数效应也将成为未来4个月中的3个月整体12个月通胀率下降的一个重要推动因素。


　　法兴银行经济学家表示，美联储本周若小幅加息25个基点或暂停加息，以及点阵图的小幅向上修正，理论上应该有助于欧元兑美元回到1月份的上行轨道。但如果美联储加息50Basis points and/或大幅向上修正点阵图，将是一个重大意外，利空风险资产，并扼杀看涨欧元兑美元的论点。


The world's largest goldETF--SPDR Gold TrustPosition decrease compared to the previous day1.44Tons, current position is923.11Tons.


According toCMEFederal Reserve Observation: The Federal Reserve3The probability of maintaining interest rates unchanged on a monthly basis is12.9%Interest rate hike25Bps to4.75%-5.00%The probability of the interval is87.1%； reach5The probability of maintaining interest rates unchanged on a monthly basis is3.9%Accumulated interest rate increase25The probability of a basis point is35.5%Accumulated interest rate increase50The probability of a basis point is60.5%。


Today's Gold Data:


　　15:00britain2monthCPIMonthly rate


　　15:00britain2Monthly Retail Price Index Monthly Rate


　　17:00eurozone1Monthly adjusted current account


　　19:00britain3monthCBIIndustrial order difference


The next day02:00Federal Reserve Announces Summary of Interest Rate Resolutions and Economic Expectations


The next day02:30Federal Reserve Chairman Powell Holds a Press Conference


　　今日技术面分析：


　　黄金昨日仅在亚盘时段有所回弹，测压1985一线即承压回落，随着欧美银行业危机担忧逐渐趋缓，避险情绪降温，欧美盘时段黄金持续回落调整，低点回撤1935一线，日线最终收得一大阴线。


　　从昨日黄金走势节奏来看，避险情绪可谓是来得突然，去的也突然，这也是但凡市场炒作避险情绪时，行情虽然看似波动剧烈，但实则却没有太好的参与机会，因为这种避险情绪无从去做量化分析判断。虽然目前市场情绪化，技术分析的有效性不高，但昨日行情还是遵从了技术走势的需要。技术结构上，昨日回撤低点至1935一线，此位是上周美银行业危机暴雷，市场避险情绪激增后的首个高点，也是上周欧洲银行业危机暴雷后强行拉升的突破口，目前避险情绪降温，行情回吐至此，也说明市场对欧洲银行业危机带来的避险情绪已经完全消散。1937-35，这是回吐避险情绪上涨的缓冲区，也可能只是回吐行情的开始，这就要看周四凌晨美联储利率决定的如何选择。


　　美联储是否调整加息节奏，对于黄金的影响都是很复杂的，复杂的原因还是因为避险情绪掺杂其中。如果美联储如市场预期调整加息节奏，即暂缓加息，那么利空美元，利多黄金，黄金可能就还会再度走强，但是暂缓加息又会淡化市场避险情绪，这又很有可能会导致黄金进一步回吐此前避险买盘带来的空间。如果美联储继续维持偏鹰政策，那么政策本身是利空黄金的，但是这样的话，市场对美银行业危机又会有担忧，从而可能继续给黄金带来避险买盘。所以明凌晨美联储利率决定对于美元本身可能会有个方向上的指引，但是对于黄金却是有很大的不确定性的，归结原因还是近期市场避险情绪已经打乱了黄金的运行节奏，继续不按常理出牌也是大概率事件，故今日对于黄金暂时选择观望为宜，有待明日美联储利率决定后，根据市场情绪的变化和选择再做调整。


　　结合日线以及小时图走势，日内技术点位可关注上方5Daily line1953-55附近短压，上方强压则关注1965一线，按照小时图结构，目前小时图走出了一波阴跌，且昨日小级别的头肩回撤形态，颈线阻力在1960-1965，短线或许会先延续昨日的阴跌调整，进一步下探寻求更强的支撑。日内亚欧盘时段行情可能会有回弹，但当前避险情绪已经降温，短线测压1950-53可能都是比较困难的，很有可能短暂回弹后再度下跌，失守1935-30的话，下方就很有可能回撤1910-05附近，此位也是前期的交投高点，同时也是目前的10日线位置，理论上是可以提供支撑的，但是当前行情毕竟还是很情绪化的，如果避险情绪降温幅度太大，黄金彻底回吐此前欧美银行业危机带来的避险空间也不是不可能的，历史走势规律也是避险情绪带来多少涨幅，避险情绪降温后大概率就会吐多少空间。综合来看，今日黄金短线操作思路上指南金师建议反弹做空为主，回调做多为辅，上方短期重点关注1948-1950Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1910-1905Frontline support, friends must keep up with the rhythm.


　　3.22Reference for Golden Operation Strategy:


Empty order strategy:


Strategy 1: Gold rebounds1945-1948Short (buy down) 2/10 positions in batches nearby, stop loss6Points, target1935-1925Nearby, break down and take a look1910frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


Multiple order strategy:


Strategy 2: Gold Callback1908-1910Nearby batch long (buy up) 2/10 positions, stop loss6Points, target1920-1925Nearby, break down and take a look1930frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


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