Guide Metallographer:3.17今日黄金走势分析，金价高位回落维持震荡

Market Review:


InternationalgoldThursday(3month16day)Maintain a volatile trend, opening price1926.96dollar/Ounces, highest price1937.18dollar/Ounces, lowest price1907.37dollar/Ounces, closing price1918.54dollar/ounce.


Interpretation of the Golden News:


Thursday's announcement from the United States to3month11Record of initial claims for unemployment benefits for the current week19.210000 people, lower than market expectations20.510000 people, the former value is21.1Ten thousand people. United States2月进口物价指数月率录得-0.1%Higher than market expectations-0.2%, previous value is-0.2%。


　　评论称，美国初请失业金人数降幅超过预期，表明劳动力市场继续强劲。尽管大型科技公司都在裁员，但劳动力市场仍保持弹性，在新冠疫情期间难以找到劳动力后，雇主普遍不愿裁员。劳动力市场紧张，1月份每个失业人口对应1.9个职位空缺，再加上通胀居高不下，美联储有可能在下周继续加息。不过金融市场动荡给经济蒙上了阴影。


　　美国财长耶伦表示，信贷紧缩可能成为经济下行风险的重要来源。在硅谷银行破产后，其他银行出现挤兑的可能性似乎很高。硅谷银行未投保的存款比例很高，这使得它很容易受到挤兑的影响。需要仔细分析引发银行倒闭的原因，并重新审视监管规则。流动性问题在最近银行倒闭中起了关键影响。高通胀是最大的经济问题，是拜登政府的首要任务。在硅谷银行倒闭后，美国银行业依然稳健。


　　欧洲央行公布的利率决显示，加息50个基点，有3-4名委员不支持本次的利率决定，无法确定未来的利率路径；下调今后三年通胀预期，通胀料在非常长时间内保持在高位，抗击通胀的决心不会减弱；上调今年经济预期，下调明后两年经济预期，经济预期没有考虑近期的金融紧张局势；若出现流动性危机可在短期内作出反应，但现在尚未出现；银行流动性状况稳健。


　　加拿大丰业银行经济学家指出，如果市场预计美联储下周将采取放松的政策，美元可能继续下跌。市场似乎仍在消化过去几天的事态发展，并在考虑对货币政策的影响。金融市场压力带来的反通胀影响，很可能会让各国央行在加息方面更加谨慎，但现在讨论银行股波动的确切后果可能还为时过早。谨慎地推进加息，可能是政策制定者的最佳选择。与此同时，foreign exchange市场的紧张不安和不稳定趋势可能会持续下去。如果美联储在下周的利率政策上看起来有所软化，美元可能会出现更持续的下跌，但在此之前可能会出现震荡区间。


According toCMEFederal Reserve Observation: The Federal Reserve3月保持利率不变的概率为20.3%Interest rate hike25Bps to4.75%-5.00%The probability of the interval is79.7%； reach5Monthly cumulative interest rate increase50The probability of a basis point increase to49.2%。


Today's Gold Data:


　　18:00eurozone2monthCPIAnnual rate final value and monthly rate


　　21:15U.S.A2Monthly industrial output rate


　　22:00U.S.A3Expected monthly and one-year inflation rate


　　22:00U.S.A3Initial monthly University of Michigan consumer confidence index


　　22:00U.S.A2Monthly consultation chamber leading indicator monthly rate


Technical analysis of gold:


　　黄金昨日先借助5日线支撑震荡回弹，欧盘时段行情拉升走高至1933一线，但晚间因欧央行如预期的加息举措引发市场对下周美联储同样可能继续强硬加息的猜想，市场避险情绪有所淡化，黄金因此回落调整，回撤至1913，后半夜基本围绕在1920附近窄幅震荡消化，日线收得一十字星线。


　　日线结构上来看，在昨日高位出现十字星线后，技术上也再度出现调整的信号，短期内下方继续着重关注5Daily line1915Nearby competition, if lost today or early next week, there may be a wave of spatial adjustments in gold technology. But the problem is that the current main rhythm of gold is still controlled by fundamentals, and the main driving force for the rise is still the risk aversion caused by unexpected events. If the risk aversion is weakened or even negative news appears, then gold can have the possibility of a correction and adjustment.


　　结合小时图走势来看，目前黄金居高震荡，形成一个三角震荡形态，虽然整体还是保持偏强，但这种偏强是建立在避险情绪基础上的，如果避险情绪继续发酵，那么黄金或再有走高，黄金小时线保持双重顶的态势，顶部基本上全部在1930附近，这个位置夯实，铜墙铁壁般的存在，隔夜黄金持续大阴线下行，反弹五根阳线，直接被一根阴线吞没下行，这是明显的看跌态势，空头能量强势，时间换空间，50均线出现明显的向下运行，同时均线也是明显双重顶的形态，今日周线收官之作，大概率会继续维持高位震荡，重点在于区间的确定，昨日给出的区间1908-1933基本是高低点的位置。综合来看，今日黄金短线操作思路上指南金师建议反弹高空为主，回调低多为辅，上方短期重点关注1933-1937Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1908-1910Frontline support, friends must keep up with the rhythm.


　　3.17Reference for Golden Operation Strategy:


Empty order strategy:


Strategy 1: Gold rebounds1930-1933Short (buy down) 2/10 positions in batches nearby, stop loss6Points, target1920-1915Nearby, break down and take a look1910frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


Multiple order strategy:


Strategy 2: Gold Callback1910-1912Nearby batch long (buy up) 2/10 positions, stop loss6Points, target1920-1930Nearby, break down and take a look1935frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


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