Guide Metallographer:3.14Today's gold trend analysis shows that gold is really about to fall!

　　goldMessage interpretation:


Last Friday, we suggested that everyone follow1827USD to1824Supported by the US dollar region, gold prices have stabilized here, and short-term operations are mainly focused on buying long on dips. As non farm data expectations are far below the previous level, according to the released data, although the number of new jobs is better than expected, the unemployment rate unexpectedly rises, and the average hourly wage growth rate will reach a new low in a year. This indicates that US employment is starting to cool down, causing market support for the Federal Reserve3Monthly interest rate increase50The expected decrease of basis points.


The poor non agricultural data can be said to be reasonable, as the average number of new applicants for unemployment benefits has been continuous for the past four weeks5There has been an increase in the week, and according to normal analysis, although this can drive gold prices up, it is difficult to have such a significant force. There is clearly another reason for the real surge in gold.


On Monday, we believe that the driving force for gold to continue to rise is due to the dual positive effects of fundamentals and technology. The technical side is driven by changes in the fundamentals, which is not much to say. Gold prices have bottomed out and rebounded, continuously breaking through multiple pressure lines. The main technical indicator, the gold cross, is upward, strengthening the short-term bullish signal. Fundamentally speaking, in addition to the non farm data mentioned above, it is the bankruptcy of Silicon Valley Bank in the United States.


Let's sort out the timeline,3month8Silicon Valley Bank suddenly announced a thunderstorm, and on the same day, gold stopped falling near the low point of the year and stabilized its rise,3month9The stock price of Silicon Valley Bank plummeted, and the general decline in bank stocks led to a sharp drop in US stocks. Gold returned to its upward trend,3month10Silicon Valley Bank Announces Bankruptcy, Gold Soars Up40USD. The impact of the bankruptcy of Silicon Valley banks over the weekend continued to ferment, with gold rising nearly on Monday50USD.


Why did the bankruptcy of Silicon Valley banks have such a significant impact on gold?


During the period of US dollar easing, Silicon Valley banks absorbed a large amount of deposits and allocated long-term restricted bond assets, leading to a significant increase in potential interest rate risk. The Federal Reserve's significant interest rate hikes in the past year have exposed these issues, indicating that the Fed's aggressive policies may have unexpected consequences, which provides a basis for the Federal Reserve to suspend interest rate hikes.


Last Thursday, the market expected the Federal Reserve to3Monthly interest rate increase50A probability of one basis point reaching80%But after the bankruptcy of Silicon Valley Bank last Friday, this probability decreased to insufficient10%And the market's expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in the second half of the year have increased, leading to a reversal of the Fed's interest rate hike expectations. This has led to a sharp drop in US dollar and bond yields, driving a surge in gold.


After the opening of trading on Tuesday, gold fluctuated and fell1900The integer position of the US dollar gained support, stabilizing and rebounding to1913USD, at its highest point in the past month1914The US dollar has encountered obstacles and is currently trading in1907Around the US dollar. Gold has retreated from its intraday high, indicating that after a short-term surge in gold prices, some bulls have taken profits and put some selling pressure on gold. However, gold prices have bottomed out and rebounded, with limited decline, indicating that the support brought by positive fundamentals is still strong. at presentKDJThe indicator enters the overbought area,RSIThe indicator is close to the overbought area,CCIIndicators are overbought, and while maintaining a bullish mindset, we should also be vigilant about the possibility of short-term correction in gold.


Today's Gold Data:


　　15:00britain1Three months in a monthILOunemployment rate


　　15:00britain2Monthly unemployment rate


　　15:00britain2Number of applicants for monthly unemployment benefits


　　18:00U.S.A2monthNFIBSmall Business Confidence Index


　　20:30U.S.A2Monthly and quarterly adjustmentsCPIthe annual rate


　　20:30U.S.A2After adjusting the roseCPIMonthly rate


　　20:30U.S.A2Monthly and quarterly adjustment coreCPIthe annual rate


The next day05:20Federal Reserve Governor Bowman delivers a speech on the modernization of the US banking system


Technical analysis of gold:


Daily level from1809Support rebound, currentlyKThe overall trend of the line also presents a four consecutive positive pattern. Faced with such a trend pattern, today's operational approach undoubtedly needs to lean towards bulls; Observing from the moving average, the overall trend of the three lines is adhesive and diverging upwards, while the overall gold price is operating at5Daily moving average1866The upper position shows a very strong trajectory. From the observation of the Bollinger belt, the third line shows an open horn shape. Yesterday's strong pull also broke the position of the Bollinger belt on the track1895Nearby, the overall gold price is currently consolidating at the upper track of the Bollinger Belt. From the perspective of technical indicators,MACDandKDJThe overall shape is all turning upwards, so from a daily perspective, the overall operating strategy of gold prices tends to be bullish;


　　4At the hourly level, the third line of the Bollinger Belt is turning upwards as a whole, and the price continues to rebound based on the position of the Bollinger Belt on the track. The overall strength is very strong, and currently the gold price is operating on the Bollinger Belt on the track as a whole1926At the bottom, the three lines of the moving average bond upwards and diverge, and the overall gold price is based on5Rihe10The daily moving average continues to rebound, and currently the overall gold price is operating at5Daily moving average1905Upper position, secondary image indicatorMACDThe overall operation is above the zero axis, with double lines diverging upwards, so the overall trend is bullish,KDJThere is a sign of turning down on the third line, so there is a need to step back on the short-term level; Do not pursue high orders, there will be tonightCPIData, Beware of High Gold Flash Collapse.


Combining14Hour level, short-term trend from1860After breaking through on the first line, there was an explosive bull rally, and prices continued to fluctuate after a high opening yesterday1870After the above range, the increase will be further expanded. As of now, the European market is still maintaining a high level of consolidation, and it is still possible to test new highs within the day. Day traders may patiently wait for the market to decline before considering multiple orders to avoid chasing gains and killing losses. Short term pressure is temporarily focused on the day's high point1914Nearby. It should be noted that the short-term upward trend of gold is relatively fast under the influence of risk events, and the continuation of this upward trend may not be particularly good. In addition, the current price is not too far from the previous pressure band, so it is recommended to refer to gold operations in terms of intraday operation ideas1910-14Nearby short order opportunities, do not chase up or sell, pay attention to the recent below1860Potential testing risks in the vicinity. Real time market in session guidance. Overall, in terms of the short-term operation strategy for gold today, Jinshengfu suggests that the main focus should be on rebounding and short selling, supplemented by a pullback and long selling, with a focus on short-term focus above1910-1914Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1888-1890Frontline support, friends must keep up with the rhythm.


　　3.14Reference for Golden Operation Strategy:


Empty order strategy:


Strategy 1: Gold rebounds1910-1913Short (buy down) 2/10 positions in batches nearby, stop loss6Points, target1900-1890Nearby, break down and take a look1880frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


Multiple order strategy:


Strategy 2: Gold Callback1888-1890Nearby batch long (buy up) 2/10 positions, stop loss6Points, target1900-1905Nearby, break down and take a look1910frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)