Guide Metallographer:3.13今日黄金走势分析，黄金还要涨多久？

　　goldMessage interpretation:


　　上周五公布的美国2月非农数据，虽然新增就业人数31.1Ten thousand people, higher than market expectations20.5万人，但仍不及1Of the month50.4万人，且失业率从3.4%Ascend to3.6%，平均时薪增速下降，创一年新低。非农数据显示美国就业降温，这对美联储来说是个好消息，市场对3Monthly interest rate increase50个基点的预期也大幅下降。


　　另外美国硅谷银行破产事件，表明美联储的激进正常，可能带来意想不到的后果，由此带来的金融冲击，可能为美联储暂停加息提供依据。市场对美联储3Monthly interest rate increase50个基点的预期发生逆转，美元与美债收益率大跌，同时市场避险情绪升温，这为黄金的上涨提供了重要支撑。


　　本周一开盘，受避险情绪大幅升温推动，黄金高开高走，刷新一个月新高至1894美元，较上周收盘价上涨近30美元，此后金价震荡承压，逐渐回吐涨幅，目前暂时交投于1875美元附近，较开盘价1873美元小幅上涨。


　　上周五黄金大涨，一根大阳线连续上穿日线5Daily moving average10日均线与布林带中轨，形成出水芙蓉形态，这是一种主力资金做多意愿强烈的典型形态，是短线追涨买入的明确信号之一，相关内容见我之前的课程，K线运用方法-出水芙蓉与断头铡刀。目前均线指标金叉向上，金价位于布林带上轨上方运行，KDJAndRSI指标金叉向上，MACD指标在零轴下方金叉向上，表明多方反扑，占据主要优势。


　　总体来看，黄金基本面，受硅谷银行破产影响，市场对美联储加息预期发生重大逆转，3Monthly interest rate increase50个基点的概率，从上周四最高80%，下降至目前不足10%，且对美联储下半年降息的预期也急剧升温，另外市场还担忧此次事件，会不会成为美国新一轮金融危机的爆发点，恐慌情绪高涨。黄金技术面，金价大涨扭转近期颓势，主要技术指标形成看涨信号，多方处于明显优势。


Today's Focus:


　　(3month12day)Starting from now on, North America will implement daylight saving time, and the trading time and economic data release time of financial markets in the United States and Canada will be one hour earlier than winter time.


The Federal Reserve will announce on Monday morning local time11:30(Evening Beijing Time11:30)Urgently convene a private meeting of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors.


Technical analysis of gold:


Gold morning market jumps high and reaches the highest1894After falling back, although there has been a decline, the gap below has not been filled, and now the upward trend continues, with strong bulls. At present, the pressure on the US index is relatively fierce on the news side, but the impact of the news side is only temporary. After the impact of the news side subsides, the US index will rebound and gold prices will also retreat accordingly. This is all a follow-up. Looking back at the market, at the four hour level, the continuous positive trend is upward. This week, we need to be cautious of the pullback after the continuous positive trend. The technical indicators have now been severely overbought. This week, we need to pay attention to whether it is a high level shock repair or a step back repair. Please pay attention to the above1959reach1804Falling and rebounding618position1900It has become the first resistance level, and there are two points to focus on below. One is the one that jumped out in the morning market1869Need to make up for it, another one is0.51of1864Compared to last week's previous high point1858Support position for.


One idea in the current market is that the gold price needs to fill the gap, but the current news is still hedging, so we will not directly go short. In the first half of the week, we will look at the volatility to fix the technical indicators, and pay attention to the range1900reach1858If the lower side effectively falls below1858Afterwards, the rebound ended and then went down before pulling up. So today's operation1890-1900Layout empty orders in the interval to see gaps1865The compensation situation; Then look at the power of bears to choose more backhands.1After a wave of highs and lows in the hourly trendKThe line continues to run outside the Bollinger band, and the short-term indicators are slightly larger. It is important to pay attention to adjusting the short-term trend after continuous upward movements. On the hourly level trend, it is currently maintaining a narrow range of fluctuations at a high level. Let's see how the short-term market can be repaired and wait for further confirmation. Currently, we will focus on1890The high point of morning rebound, pay attention to the gap below1860In the medium term, with the support of not breaking the limit within the day1900Or above; Overall, in today's gold short-term operation guidelines, gold analysts suggest a pullback and long selling as the main approach, supplemented by a rebound and short selling, with a focus on short-term trading above1898-1900Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1858-1860Frontline support, friends must keep up with the rhythm.


　　3.13Reference for Golden Operation Strategy:


Empty order strategy:


Strategy 1: Gold rebounds1898-1900Short (buy down) 2/10 positions in batches nearby, stop loss6Points, target1880-1870Nearby, break down and take a look1865frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


Multiple order strategy:


Strategy 2: Gold Callback1863-1865Nearby batch long (buy up) 2/10 positions, stop loss6Points, target1875-1885Nearby, break down and take a look1895frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


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Solid Harvest Operation Plan:


　　1、5000The US dollar mini position is operated with a stable and conservative approach, with an expected return point of50%above


　　2、1-3A standard position of 10000 US dollars, operated through a combination of medium and short term operations, with expected revenue potential70%above


　　3、8Senior positions above $10000, supplemented by short-term and medium-term positions, with long-term positions as the main focus, with expected revenue potential90%above