Guide Metallographer:3.13Today's Gold Trend Analysis, Silicon Valley Bank in the United States Thunderstorm

Market Review:


InternationalgoldFriday(3month10day)Significant increase in closing price1828.49dollar/Ounces, highest price1867.17dollar/Ounces, lowest price1825.33dollar/Ounces, closing price1862.87dollar/ounce(Monday saw a significant increase in gold prices1894After the first line, the short term fluctuates and falls, while the short term stabilizes1882Below)。


Interpretation of the Golden News:


The United States announced on Friday2Monthly unemployment rate recorded3.6%Higher than market expectations3.4%, previous value is3.4%； U.S.A2Record of non agricultural employment population after seasonal adjustment31.1Higher than market expectations20.5, previous value is51.7。


The commentary stated that although the increase in employment data was higher than expected, the increase in unemployment rate and the slowdown in wage growth are encouraging for the Federal Reserve. There is currently no clear reason to suggest that the Federal Reserve3The month will accelerate the pace of interest rate hikes to50Basis points. If next week in the United StatesCPIThe data is still strong, which could increase the Federal Reserve3Monthly interest rate increase50The possibility of a basis point.


Imperial Bank of Canada's analysis suggests that everything depends on next week's US inflation report, which will determine the Fed's rate hike this month. Overall, non agricultural data will not affect3Monthly Federal Reserve Rate hike25or50A decision of one basis point, we can wait for next week's visit to the United StatesCPIData, which will be a key factor in determining interest rate hikes.


Bloomberg cited insiders as revealing that it is responsible for overseeing Silicon Valley Bank Financial Group(SVB Financial Group)The US regulatory agency, which is undergoing an emergency spin off, is urgently selling assets and returning some uninsured deposits to customers as soon as Monday local time. The initial payment amount will be partially dependent on the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation of the United States(FDIC)Asset realization progress before Sunday evening. Silicon Valley Bank's corporate clients are eager to obtain their funds to maintain operations and employee salaries. According to insiders, the initial amount is for uninsured deposits30%reach50%, or more.


According to reports, Silicon Valley Bank went bankrupt and was taken over by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation of the United States. Moody's downgraded its parent companySVBThe rating of the financial group will be revoked, followed by the ongoing outbreak of the Silicon Valley banking incident, with the Federal Reserve and the US Treasury weighing the provision of emergency deposit guarantee authorization; Investors are calling on the US government to intervene in the collapse of banks in Silicon Valley, fearing widespread collapse and layoffs in the technology industry; The United States is discussing the issue of providing financial support for deposits when more banks fail; Bank of London is considering acquiring a UK subsidiary of Silicon Valley Bank; Major commercial banks in the UK are required to24Save Silicon Valley Bank UK Branch within hours; The United States is considering protecting the uninsured deposits of Silicon Valley banks, and HSBC may become the White Knight of the latter's UK branch; Musk stated that he is open to Twitter's acquisition of Silicon Valley Bank; Stable currency giantCircleFor Silicon Valley Bank33The risk exposure of US $billion caused investors' concern; First Republic Bank of the United States andWestern AllianceThe bank stated that its liquidity and deposits remain strong; Some Silicon Valley bank depositors are seeking to sell their deposits at a discount.


The report states that the Federal Reserve has announced a new emergency bank term financing plan, stating that the Treasury Department will provide250A billion dollar emergency loan support. The market's response was dramatic, with the most direct manifestation being the expected "collapse" of the Federal Reserve's interest rate trajectory. Swap trading shows that the terminal interest rate is expected to be at9Monthly reached5.70%Plummeted to the point of6Monthly5.11%At the same time, the market is concerned about2023The expectation of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in the second half of the year is soaring. Currently, the market is concerned about3Monthly interest rate hike50The probability of a basis point change from75%Plummet to insufficient10%，5Monthly interest rate hike50The probability of one basis point has been erased. At present, there are increasing voices in the market about "it is time for the Federal Reserve to consider suspending interest rate hikes or even lowering interest rates".


Financial Times, American media11According to a Japanese article, the bankruptcy of Silicon Valley Bank means that start-up technology companies in Silicon Valley are facing a "catastrophe".10On the th, Silicon Valley Bank announced bankruptcy, which was due to2008The largest bankrupt bank in the United States since the financial crisis in, and also an institution that collaborates with about half of local technology startups. Its bankruptcy represents a clear threat to these enterprises, which are facing a 'disaster of collapse'. The Financial Times believes that it is currently impossible to estimate how much impact this financial shock will have on startups whose deposits have been frozen. As US financial regulators force the sale of Silicon Valley bank assets, losses will further expand, and the funds of startups may be frozen indefinitely. They will be unable to fulfill promises such as paying employee salaries in the short term and will have to close their doors.


Analysis shows that based on current development trends, it is currently expected that the Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates at all this month50A basis point, or even a 'pause in interest rate hikes'. The chain reaction of the bankruptcy of Silicon Valley banks will take time to fully manifest. Although depositors have been rescued, this is at the expense of unsecured creditors, which will lead to an increase in bank financing. So although this incident itself may not prevent the Federal Reserve from continuing to fight inflation, even if it is only a potential systemic risk(No matter how weak the risk may be)It will also make the Federal Reserve temporarily choose to relax rather than tighten the financial environment. So regardless of the data we receive, this week's inflation and retail sales data will largely become a "juggle".


Analysis shows that the closure of Silicon Valley banks highlights the negative impact of the Federal Reserve's aggressive rate hikes. Silicon Valley's banking business is concentrated in fields such as technology and venture capital, and compared to traditional banks, it relies less on individual depositor deposits. The Federal Reserve's aggressive interest rate hikes have led to a decline in bond prices, a rapid loss of deposits from commercial banks, and an increase in financing costs. In this context, Silicon Valley banks are not well prepared, leading to the current difficulties. Silicon Valley Bank is not the only one facing this dilemma. The Federal Reserve Insurance Company has previously warned that the current interest rate environment may have serious consequences for the banking industry, and financial institutions such as US commercial banks may face a total risk of selling or holding multiple financial products6200A loss of billions of dollars.


Today's Focus:


　　(3month12day)Starting from now on, North America will implement daylight saving time, and the trading time and economic data release time of financial markets in the United States and Canada will be one hour earlier than winter time.


The Federal Reserve will announce on Monday morning local time11:30(Evening Beijing Time11:30)Urgently convene a private meeting of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors.


Technical analysis of gold:


Gold morning market jumps high and reaches the highest1894After falling back, although there has been a decline, the gap below has not been filled, and now the upward trend continues, with strong bulls. At present, the pressure on the US index is relatively fierce on the news side, but the impact of the news side is only temporary. After the impact of the news side subsides, the US index will rebound and gold prices will also retreat accordingly. This is all a follow-up. Looking back at the market, at the four hour level, the continuous positive trend is upward. This week, we need to be cautious of the pullback after the continuous positive trend. The technical indicators have now been severely overbought. This week, we need to pay attention to whether it is a high level shock repair or a step back repair. Please pay attention to the above1959reach1804Falling and rebounding618position1900It has become the first resistance level, and there are two points to focus on below. One is the one that jumped out in the morning market1869Need to make up for it, another one is0.51of1864Compared to last week's previous high point1858Support position for.


One idea in the current market is that the gold price needs to fill the gap, but the current news is still hedging, so we will not directly go short. In the first half of the week, we will look at the volatility to fix the technical indicators, and pay attention to the range1900reach1858If the lower side effectively falls below1858Afterwards, the rebound ended and then went down before pulling up. So today's operation1890-1900Layout empty orders in the interval to see gaps1865The compensation situation; Then look at the power of bears to choose more backhands.1After a wave of highs and lows in the hourly trendKThe line continues to run outside the Bollinger band, and the short-term indicators are slightly larger. It is important to pay attention to adjusting the short-term trend after continuous upward movements. On the hourly level trend, it is currently maintaining a narrow range of fluctuations at a high level. Let's see how the short-term market can be repaired and wait for further confirmation. Currently, we will focus on1890The high point of morning rebound, pay attention to the gap below1860In the medium term, with the support of not breaking the limit within the day1900Or above; Overall, in today's gold short-term operation guidelines, gold analysts suggest a pullback and long selling as the main approach, supplemented by a rebound and short selling, with a focus on short-term trading above1890-1895Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1858-1860Frontline support, friends must keep up with the rhythm.


　　3.13Reference for Golden Operation Strategy:


Empty order strategy:


Strategy 1: Gold rebounds1890-1893Short (buy down) 2/10 positions in batches nearby, stop loss6Points, target1880-1870Nearby, break down and take a look1865frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


Multiple order strategy:


Strategy 2: Gold Callback1863-1865Nearby batch long (buy up) 2/10 positions, stop loss6Points, target1875-1885Nearby, break down and take a look1895frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


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Solid Harvest Operation Plan:


　　1、5000The US dollar mini position is operated with a stable and conservative approach, with an expected return point of50%above


　　2、1-3A standard position of 10000 US dollars, operated through a combination of medium and short term operations, with expected revenue potential70%above


　　3、8Senior positions above $10000, supplemented by short-term and medium-term positions, with long-term positions as the main focus, with expected revenue potential90%above