Guide Metallographer:3.10今日黄金走势分析，市场等待非农报告

　　goldMessage interpretation:


Looking Forward to Today Friday(3month10day)：国际黄金开盘维持昨日走强动力，有所持稳，但白盘时段，波幅有限，仍需等待晚间的非农数据引发行情方向。


　　但整体来看，美元指数虽日图仍维持在短期均线上方，周图看涨信号也较强，但动力不足，另外，美债10年期收益率目前运行至中轨下方，附图指标空头信号增强，后市有望继续走低，而对金价产生提振，再者美股市场走势看回落为主，故此金价后市走势，要么震荡持稳，要么延续回升走强。


　　眼下，市场焦点转向美国非农就业数据和消费者价格指数。这将是引导市场对FOMCMay be in3月会议上提供政策指导的预期的重要因素之一。


Focus on the United States within the day2月季调后非农就业人口变动和失业率。主要投行认为2月非农增速相比前值51.7万人大幅下滑，具体而言，美国2The growth rate of non-agricultural employment after the seasonal adjustment is expected to be between10ten thousand-30万，失业率和前值持平，仍为3.4%，维持在近50年来的低位，平均时薪年率增幅料介于4.7%-5.0%, slightly higher than expected4.3%，凸显出美国劳动力市场的韧性。


　　不过，根据周三有小非农之称的美国2monthADPIncrease in employment24.2Ten thousand people, far exceeding market expectations20Ten thousand people,1月人数也从10.6Ten thousand people have reached the highest level of cultivation11.9万人来看。


　　晚间非农大概率将高于预期并低于前值，因而产生下滑力度不及市场预期，并仍提升加息50个基点的概率，而先行对黄金市场产生压力；但鉴于相对前值确实在较大幅的降低，以及ADP超预期及前值的利空，也未对金价造成压力，所以，晚间金价，走势或先跌后涨，最后再度遇阻回撤，震荡波动。


　　但若数据显示2月非农增幅真如投行预测那样下滑，黄金将有望获得支撑，同时，根据昨日初请数据也证明了美国紧张的就业市场出现了裂缝的迹象。故此也或出人意料地出现实质性下滑。而大幅利好金价。


　　综合来看，在失业率和时薪增幅相差不大的情况下，任何介于两者之间的就业人数变动都会，让市场倾向于50个基点，而令金价震荡走盘，如低于预期或接近预期，则直接看涨，除非意外高于前值，那么金价将大幅走低。否则将维持震荡或走强的观点对待。


Today's Gold Data:


　　15:00Germany2monthCPIMonthly rate final value


　　15:00britain1Three months in a monthGDPMonthly rate


　　15:00britain1Commodity Trade Account after Monthly Adjustment


　　15:00britain1Monthly manufacturing output rate


　　15:00britain1Monthly industrial output rate


　　15:45France1Monthly trade account


　　21:30Canada2Monthly Employment Number


　　21:30U.S.A2Monthly unemployment rate


　　21:30U.S.A2Non agricultural employment population after rose adjustment


　　23:00德国总理朔尔茨会见欧洲央行行长拉加德


Technical analysis of gold:


　　黄金周四守住低点1810一线启稳，尾盘由于美元高位回落，提振金价反弹向上，收复了前一日高点1823.打破弱势格局，回归区间震荡，多空转换频繁，由临界点来决定强弱延续，短线结构也是由形态而定。尾盘收在高位。日线收成中阳线，今日周线收官之作，加之非农数据登场，目前技术结构已经进入震荡。暂时处于1858-1805区间的中性位置。从空间上来看，暂时还不好突破。可能会陷入区间震荡收尾周线。


　　4小时图启稳在低点之上反弹收复了中轨的阻力。目前在1805-1810一定形成了双重支撑，短期等待方向选择，是蓄势破低还是构造底部回升？有待确认。留意1805and1858两个临界点的突破。站上1858则是双底反弹向上，反之再破1805则形成第三浪延续下跌。目前4小时图处理方向选择当中。1小时图昨日一波连阳反弹打破了弱势，均线指标凌乱发散，短线暂时步入震荡格调。留意空间的延续。黄金昨天震荡走多，最高触及1835附近，也是最近这波下跌618的位置。按照日线今天应该还有一波涨，周线也倾向主多。但是1835不能有效破位的话，行情也不适合激进干多。日线支撑1816附近触及可以多，日内下方则关注隔夜行情上涨突破口1825-23附近争夺，这也是周二大跌后行情两度小幅回弹的高点，也是日内多空分水，触及可以先多。上方目标先看昨天高点1835, take a break to see1840附近，行情如果有效站稳1840，还会去1851甚至本周高点附近。综合来看，今日黄金短线操作思路上指南金师建议回调做多为主，反弹做空为辅，上方短期重点关注1835-1840Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1820-1823Frontline support, friends must keep up with the rhythm.


　　3.10Reference for Golden Operation Strategy:


Empty order strategy:


Strategy 1: Gold rebounds1835-1838Short (buy down) 2/10 positions in batches nearby, stop loss6Points, target1830-1825Nearby, break down and take a look1820frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


Multiple order strategy:


Strategy 2: Gold Callback1823-1825Nearby batch long (buy up) 2/10 positions, stop loss6Points, target1830-1835Nearby, break down and take a look1840frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


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