Guide Metallographer:3.9今日黄金走势分析，市场等待非农数据

　　goldMessage interpretation:


　　周二黄金大跌，主要因美联储主席鲍威尔国会证词，认为最近的经济数据与预期要强，终端利率可能要比之前预期的要高，如果整体数据表明有必要加快紧缩速度，将准备加大加息步伐。鲍威尔的鹰派言论，令市场加强了对下次加息50个基点的预期，帮助美元刷新三个月新高，两年期美债收益率刷新2007年以来新高，给黄金造成较大压力。


　　不过在周三，鲍威尔国会证词，虽然重申可能更快以及更高加息，但同时也强调，现在还没有做出任何决定，在决定是否需要重新回到大幅加息时，将密切关注本周五公布的非农数据，以及下周的通胀数据，这缓解了黄金的短期下行压力。


　　因市场目光普遍集中在周五的非农数据上，观望情绪逐渐浓厚，预计金价将继续低位调整，短线或仍有反弹机会，不过利率futures显示，美联储三月加息50个基点的概率高达80%，这将限制黄金的反弹空间。另外，一旦周五公布的非农数据，像一月份的一样表现强劲，可能再次打压黄金。


Today's Gold Data:


　　20:30U.S.A2Monthly Challenger Enterprise layoffs


　　21:30From the United States to3month4Number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the current week


Technical analysis of gold:


　　黄金周三低位震荡修正，小幅下探1809附近启稳。守住此前的低点1805上方震荡运行，没能破低进一步延续弱势，欧美盘反弹在1824.80处再承压收回低位，日线收盘小阳十字K线。局部震荡修正当中，日线第二次接近低点，从结构上来看，日线还是偏空一些，就看破位后的延续，此前的反弹暂时当作蓄势破低下行，短线节奏稍有放缓。


　　4小时图局部低位震荡修正，但好在尾盘仍收在低位，没能收复失地，使得短线今日相对偏弱一些，布林道暂时处于中轨之下运行，短线中轨是多空临界点，此位之下看空依旧，上破再调整思路，短线或许伴随迂回反复的洗盘，临界点的得与失决定短期多空方向。短线在1830之下暂时维持高空，上破再调整思路。1小时图布林道开始收口，本周五还有重磅非农数据。不排除在数据公布前进入收缩整理，空间有所收敛。考虑到目前的结构和形态趋势整体偏空，维持高空是主思路。综合来看，今日黄金短线操作思路上指南金师建议反弹做空为主，回调做多为辅，上方短期重点关注1827-1830Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1809-1804Frontline support, friends must keep up with the rhythm.


　　3.9Reference for Golden Operation Strategy:


Empty order strategy:


Strategy 1: Gold rebounds1827-1830Short (buy down) 2/10 positions in batches nearby, stop loss6Points, target1820-1810Nearby, break down and take a look1805frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


Multiple order strategy:


Strategy 2: Gold Callback1806-1809Nearby batch long (buy up) 2/10 positions, stop loss6Points, target1820-1825Nearby, break down and take a look1830frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


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