Guide Metallographer:3.9今日黄金走势分析，美联储继续影响情绪

　　goldMessage interpretation:


Looking Forward to Today Thursday(3month9day)：国际黄金开盘仍先行表现止跌运行，但力度有限，美元指数后市走向仍有望继续走强，而对其产生压力。整体来看，美元指数仍运行在日图中轨和短期均线上方，就算有回撤触及此等支撑，也只会对金价造成短线提振，另外，周图走势在突破中轨后，动力转强，上方仍有空间，因而金价如有回升，也可以关注日图中轨附近阻力去做空回落，继续等待100日均线的触及和30周均线的触及之后，再去考虑较为连续的攀升行情。


　　日内将重点留意美国2Monthly Challenger Enterprise layoffs(ten thousand people)和美国至3month4Number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the current week(ten thousand people)，预期有所偏向利好金价，但根据昨日ADP就业人数较大幅增加来看，数值有望利空金价，但昨日利空也未对金价造成回落，故此晚间金价震荡或走强的概率较大。


　　基本面上，此前一天，在美联储主席鲍威尔发表评论称可能需要更大幅度的加息以抑制通货膨胀后，金价大幅回落，一举收复上周涨幅，但在第二天的国会证词上，则没有重大意外和强调，这减弱了其鹰派的基调温度，也令美元指数多头动力减缓，令金价有所持稳。


　　目前劳动力市场存在权衡取舍。鲍威尔周三也强调，政策制定者尚未就本月晚些时候的加息幅度做出决定，并表示这将取决于即将公布的就业和通胀数据来判断3月份的加息幅度。现在一切都交给数据。


　　而数据上，近期也都在偏向增强3月份的加息幅度，昨日在ADP公布后，加息50The probability of a basis point from70%再度上升，但美联储褐皮书也显示2023年初美国整体经济活动略有增加，动力不及预期，通胀压力依然普遍。预计未来几个月经济状况不会有太大改善。市场对经济活动即将加速并不乐观。


　　所以，个人认为，就算美联储在3Monthly interest rate hike50个基点，那么对于金价的压力了也是有限的，因为之前的回落，已经是提前消化，再者，根据褐皮书对于未来几个月经济的展望显示，也不可能在下次继续加息50个基点，所以，一点本月加息落地之后，黄金将再度开启攀升模式。


Today's Gold Data:


　　20:30U.S.A2Monthly Challenger Enterprise layoffs


　　21:30From the United States to3month4Number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the current week


Technical analysis of gold:


　　黄金周三低位震荡修正，小幅下探1809附近启稳。守住此前的低点1805上方震荡运行，没能破低进一步延续弱势，欧美盘反弹在1824.80处再承压收回低位，日线收盘小阳十字K线。局部震荡修正当中，日线第二次接近低点，从结构上来看，日线还是偏空一些，就看破位后的延续，此前的反弹暂时当作蓄势破低下行，短线节奏稍有放缓。


　　4小时图局部低位震荡修正，但好在尾盘仍收在低位，没能收复失地，使得短线今日相对偏弱一些，布林道暂时处于中轨之下运行，短线中轨是多空临界点，此位之下看空依旧，上破再调整思路，短线或许伴随迂回反复的洗盘，临界点的得与失决定短期多空方向。短线在1830之下暂时维持高空，上破再调整思路。1小时图布林道开始收口，本周五还有重磅非农数据。不排除在数据公布前进入收缩整理，空间有所收敛。考虑到目前的结构和形态趋势整体偏空，维持高空是主思路。综合来看，今日黄金短线操作思路上指南金师建议反弹做空为主，回调做多为辅，上方短期重点关注1827-1830Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1809-1804Frontline support, friends must keep up with the rhythm.


　　3.9Reference for Golden Operation Strategy:


Empty order strategy:


Strategy 1: Gold rebounds1827-1830Short (buy down) 2/10 positions in batches nearby, stop loss6Points, target1820-1810Nearby, break down and take a look1805frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


Multiple order strategy:


Strategy 2: Gold Callback1806-1809Nearby batch long (buy up) 2/10 positions, stop loss6Points, target1820-1825Nearby, break down and take a look1830frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


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