Yu Yue on Jin:3.9黄金原油窄幅震荡多空难辨，今日行情趋势...

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goldLatest market trend analysis:

Thursday（3month9日）现货黄金维持震荡，目前交投于1812美元附近。昨日现货黄金横盘整理，在跌破1810关口后迅速回升，美盘冲高较日低大涨近15美元，但随后回吐涨幅，最终收跌0.01%Report1813.86dollar/盎司；美元指数高位震荡，最终小幅收涨0.066%Report105.71, creating3个月新高。鲍威尔周三重申了关于峰值利率更高，加息步伐可能更快的信息，但强调仍在进行讨论，决策将取决于两周后联储政策会议前发布的数据。今日需要关注的数据有，中国2monthCPIAnnual rate, United States2月挑战者企业裁员人数和美国截至3month4Number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the current week.

　　黄金技术面分析：黄金周三低位震荡修正，小幅下探1809附近启稳。守住此前的低点1805上方震荡运行，没能破低进一步延续弱势，欧美盘反弹在1824.80处再承压收回低位，日线收盘小阳十字K线。局部震荡修正当中，日线第二次接近低点，从结构上来看，日线还是偏空一些，就看破位后的延续，此前的反弹暂时当作蓄势破低下行，短线节奏稍有放缓。

　　4小时图局部低位震荡修正，但好在尾盘仍收在低位，没能收复失地，使得短线今日相对偏弱一些，布林道暂时处于中轨之下运行，短线中轨是多空临界点，此位之下看空依旧，上破再调整思路，短线或许伴随迂回反复的洗盘，临界点的得与失决定短期多空方向。短线在1830之下暂时维持高空，上破再调整思路。1小时图布林道开始收口，本周五还有重磅非农数据。不排除在数据公布前进入收缩整理，空间有所收敛。考虑到目前的结构和形态趋势整体偏空，维持高空是主思路。综合来看，今日黄金短线操作思路上陈金皓建议反弹做空为主，回调做多为辅，上方短期重点关注1824-1830Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1800-1804Frontline support.



　　crude oilLatest market trend analysis:



　　3month9At the beginning of the Asian market on Thursday, American Oil Trading Co., Ltd76.56dollar/桶附近；油价周三延续跌势，因人们担心美国更激进的加息会给经济增长和石油需求带来压力，这超过了美国原油库存大于预期的减少。巴克莱周三下调对2023年油价的预测，部分原因是俄罗斯的产量比预期更有韧性，并表示由于中国需求增长，市场可能在下半年转为短缺状态。该行将对布伦特原油和美国原油平均价格的预测分别降低6dollar/Bucket and7dollar/桶，至92dollar/Bucket and87dollar/桶。该行还预测布伦特原油明年的平均价格为97dollar/桶，美国原油为92dollar/Bucket. 分析师补充称，随着中国从疫情限制中的重新开放更加“成熟”，以及OPEC+产油国联盟以外的供应增长放缓，市场可能在今年下半年转为短缺5010000 barrels/日。总体来看，尽管美国原油库存结束连续10周的攀升趋势，但油价受累于美国或更激进加息的担忧，油价存下行压力，短期静待非农数据出炉。

　　技术面分析：油价周三延续跌势，尽管美国原油库存结束连续10周的攀升趋势在昨夜带来了一些支撑，但是因人们担心美国更激进的加息会给经济增长和石油需求带来压力，这超过了美国原油库存大于预期的减少，当前地缘局势以及全球闲置产能紧张相关的供应不确性持续支撑油价，油价下方也快触及本轮上涨的低位了，原油继续区间震荡，料下行空间有限。从走势来看，原油昨日低位震荡，虽有回弹动作，但幅度太小，不足以改变日线转空的状况。而晚间EIA数据虽利多原油，但市场情绪可能因日线结构转空的改变，而对数据变得不是很认可，导致行情并未回弹，而是再度震荡回落，跌回至76一线，日线最终再收一阴线，不过价格跌至此处也已宣泄差不多了，不过日内可能还是存在一个低点的概率，也就是75.5附近，保留这个看法，今日可再看一次向上的调整，近期油价技术面整体走势依旧以多空宽幅震荡为主，借助消息面突发洗盘拉锯今日多头能否延续强势重点关注欧盘表现，下方支撑关注75附近，日内先行依托此区间继续看震荡运行。综合来看，原油今日操作上陈金皓建议以反弹高空为主，回踩低多为辅，上方短期关注77.5-78Frontline resistance, short-term focus below75.5-75Frontline support.



Yu Yue's Discussion on Gold - To my friends who invest, let me express my sincere words:

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