Guide Metallographer:3.6今日黄金走势分析，非农预大降增深加息分歧

　　goldMessage interpretation:


Looking ahead to this Monday(3month6day)：国际黄金开盘先行回落走低，多头动力减弱，美元指数及美债收益率开盘偏弱，未对其产生提振，说明市场对于上周的看涨持仓，产生了部分获利了结影响。


　　整体来看，美元指数遇阻周中轨压力，日图也有走低的空间和信号，美债10年期收益率短线回落的压力也是较大，故此金价预计日内回落空间有限，上方仍可继续关注30日均线的目标阻力1867美元附近，届时可先行看阻力回落行情。


　　日内将关注欧元区1Monthly retail sales rate, US1Monthly rate of factory orders and the United States2New York Fed Global Supply Chain Pressure Index(GSCPI)Etc., it is expected that the gold price will be biased to be favorable, so the probability of first falling and then rising today is high.


　　另外，在这之后，本周将有美联储主席鲍威尔国会作证、ADP非农就业数据、美联储公布经济状况褐皮书、美国初请失业金人数，以及重点关注的美国非农就业数据。此外，澳洲联储、日本央行公布和加拿大央行将公布利率决议；


　　观点上，2月份的就业报告和美联储主席鲍威尔本周在国会的证词应该会更清楚地表明，最近有关利率‘在更长时间内维持在更高水平’的说法是否合理。


　　目前来看，上周黄金大幅反弹收涨，大概率也是消化了美国2月份最新的非农就业报告将会大幅向下修正的预期，以及失业率将维持在3.4%得到影响。所以，不管本周讲话和数据是否支撑美联储提高加息峰值，本周多头动力受限，或震荡的概率较大。


　　短中期内，黄金仍然非常依赖数据——就像美联储一样。上个月一切都围绕就业人数。这一次，非农就业人数、CPIandPPI对利率和贵金属走势也至关重要。这也将取决于未来两周的数据表现如何。如果我们继续看到美联储将不得不积极加息，黄金将再次测试上周的低点，但就算再度测试低点，也依然看好在百日线和200周均线附近看止跌回升。


　　长期来看，则市场观点基本一致；目前美联储利率峰值再度被推升，但这也会降低美国经济软着陆的几率。另外，利率的进一步上升最终也将导致大幅降息。如果美联储真的加息到6%，那只是意味着它可以在以后降息600个基点，这对黄金来说是非常有利的。未来将是持有黄金的好时机。


　　一旦美国加息周期明显结束，或转为降息政策，那么黄金的吸引力将更加显著。如果要到美联储期望的2%目标，个人仍然预计会到2024年的下半年或者是2025年初，故此，降息预期也将放在2024Year or2025年。所以，今年仍然是偏震荡的一年，但也是长期看涨进行买入机会的一年，未来10年可长期持有，上看3500美元或更高都在预料之中。


Today's Gold Data:


　　15:30Switzerland2monthCPIMonthly rate


　　17:30eurozone3monthSentixInvestor confidence index


　　18:00eurozone1Monthly retail sales rate


　　23:00U.S.A1Monthly factory order rate


　　23:00U.S.A2New York Fed Global Supply Chain Pressure Index


Technical analysis of gold:


　　黄金上周五稳步反弹，突破1845平台空头临界点之后，短线回撤在1840一带二次启稳上升，打破了短期下行台阶的弱势空头临界点。缓慢震荡向上反弹走修正。日线收盘小阳线K线。周线则收成一根大阳线。此前回撤在1805关口处启稳，周线连阴之后转阳启稳，中期或许要重新选择方向，是重新启稳上升，还是反弹修正后再度下跌。本周有待确定。小周期目前处于进一步反弹延续当中。


　　4Hour chart from1804The bottom rebound has a certain degree of persistence, accompanied by a small period of breaking point. Currently, relying on the medium track, a wave of sustained rebound has emerged,4小时图看进一步向上，而短线小台阶的反弹临界点在1830。此位是二浪反弹的防守强弱点，此位之上先看延伸反弹，而上周五的回撤低点以及突破口1845-1840转换成支撑，周初依托支撑逢低做多继续上看。1小时图比较强势的台阶上升通道构造，随着低点向上抬升，短线有进一步走强的迹象。


　　黄金目前在日线走势上走出连续的反弹之后技术形态修复完成前期的下跌走势被终结掉，在短线走势上关注下1865一带的压力带。小时级别走势上周五尾盘一波冲高触及到前期的压力带附近之后走出小幅回落，目前K线开始逐步击破短周期均线在短线走势上还有一定的下行空间。周五在走出前期1845一带的联排压力带之后走出惯性拉升，今天的区间可能会被压缩在1845-1865之间，关注下回踩之后的二次拉升情况。综合来看，今日黄金短线操作思路上指南金师建议回调做多为主，反弹做空为辅，上方短期重点关注1865-1870Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1840-1845Frontline support, friends must keep up with the rhythm.


　　3.6Reference for Golden Operation Strategy:


Empty order strategy:


Strategy 1: Gold rebounds1865-1868Short (buy down) 2/10 positions in batches nearby, stop loss6Points, target1855-1850Nearby, break down and take a look1845frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


Multiple order strategy:


Strategy 2: Gold Callback1845-1848Nearby batch long (buy up) 2/10 positions, stop loss6Points, target1855-1865Nearby, break down and take a look1870frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


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