ATFX: Japan's unemployment rate fell to2.4%, creating2020year3New low since September

In addition to interest rate and inflation rate, unemployment rate is the third economic data that can accurately measure the economic cycle. The lower the unemployment rate, the macroeconomic recovery and prosperity stage; The higher the unemployment rate, the more likely the macro economy will fall into recession and depression. This morning, Japan's Ministry of General Affairs announced the unemployment rate data for January, with the previous value of2.5%, the latest value is2.4%, created by2020The lowest since March. From the perspective of unemployment rate, the Japanese economy has completely got rid of the negative impact of the COVID-19 epidemic, and the macroeconomic prospects are good.


日本央行会因为表现良好的失业率数据而采取加息的货币政策吗？我们认为短期内不会。上任不久的日本央行行长植田和男曾经表示：“由于日本通胀尚未持续稳定地达到央行2%的目标，维持超宽松的货币政策是合适的”。


日本一月份的CPI增速高达4.3%，远远超出2%的央行调控目标。但是，日本CPI增速超过2%，仅仅持续了十个月时间，不满一年。所以才有了植田和男所要求的“持续稳定地达到2%”。至于“持续稳定”是指多久，日本央行并未给出明确时间表。


YCC政策指导之下，日本央行将十年期日本国债收益率波动范围限定在±0.5%。由上图可知，十年期日本国债最新收益率0.505%，已经达到调控上限。国债利率走高意味着市场正在预期日本央行将开启加息政策。去年12month20日，日本央行曾经扩大日本国债收益率的调控区间，从±0.25%扩大至正负0.5%，此举导致了上图中曲线的跳涨。从失业率和CPI增速的角度看，不久之后，日本央行将再次扩大调控区间。


From a technical perspective,USDJPY已经上涨突破均线压制，中期趋势由空转多。图中所示黄色斜线是多头趋势当中的第一次回调，其所形成的支撑位在131.58。如果未来市场行情开启第二次回调，只要不突破131.58，则多头力量仍占据优势。

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There are risks in the market, and investment needs to be cautious. The above content only represents the analyst's personal views and does not constitute any operational suggestions. Please do not consider this report as the sole reference. At different times, analysts' perspectives may change, and updates will not be notified separately.
2023-03-03