ATFX: The President of the German Central Bank disclosed in advance that the European Central Bank will raise interest rates significantly in March!

In a recent speech, German Central Bank President Neger said, "The inflation rate in the euro area will remain at a very high level. It is expected that inflation will decline to some extent in the second half of the year. It is necessary to3The interest rate will be raised sharply after the month of7Accelerate the reduction of its oversized bond portfolio from September. The next interest rate decision time of the European Central Bank is3month16The expected interest rate increase in the market is50Base point, under the influence of Nagel's speech, the expected interest rate increase is expected to expand.


2022The European Central Bank raised interest rates four times in total, with the largest single rate increase of75基点，将基准利率从1.25%Raise to2%，如下图中红框所示。截至目前，欧央行最新基准利率为3%Yes2009年以来的最高值。维持高利率的主要目的就是抗击欧元区内的高通胀问题，衡量高通胀的核心指标是CPIGrowth.


2021年开始，欧元区的CPI增速剧烈升高，直到2022year10月份才开始触顶回落，峰值为10.6%。今年一月份，欧元区CPIGrowth rate8.6%，虽然低于峰值水平，但仍处于相对高位，欧央行仍有充足的理由执行激进加息政策。


受到上述因素影响，欧元相对美元仍有持续的升值动力。技术角度看（如下图），EURUSD短期回调阻力位在1.0714，市场价格已经击穿该阻力位。但是，1.0714所代表的调整区间下限尚未被触及。多头趋势的中枢结构虽然有走坏迹象，但只要下限不被突破就仍有希望。远期阻力位在1.0089位置，预计本轮回调较难触及。


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2023-03-02