Guide Metallographer:2.28今日黄金走势分析，金价触底反弹震荡收涨

Market Review:


InternationalgoldMonday(2month27day)Volatile closing up, opening price1810.30dollar/Ounces, highest price1819.90dollar/Ounces, lowest price1806.51dollar/Ounces, closing price1815.25dollar/ounce.


　　今日消息面解读：


The United States announced on Monday1Monthly rate of durable goods orders recorded-4.5%, lower than market expectations-4%, previous value is5.6%。


　　评论称，1月份，美国工厂的企业设备订单出现5个月来最大增幅，表明尽管借贷成本高企，经济不确定性挥之不去，但企业仍在继续进行较长期资本投资。由于现在的美国劳动力市场吃紧，工资面临上行压力，许多公司都在继续想方设法提高员工的生产率。此外，如果企业认为潜在的低迷将是短暂而温和的，他们可能更倾向于继续进行资本投资计划。但不断上升的利率、通货膨胀和整体经济的不确定性可能会短期内促使美国企业限制支出。


The United States announced on Monday1月成屋签约销售指数月率录得8.1%Higher than market expectations1.00%, previous value is2.5%。


Commentary states that the United States1月份成屋待完成销售增幅为2020year6月以来最大，这可能是暂时的提升，因为当月抵押贷款利率下降提振了需求，同时在美国降价也变得越来越普遍，也有助于提高人们的承受能力。不过，根据最近的经济数据，美联储应该打算进一步提高利率，所以目前还不清楚美国未来的房地产市场何时会真正好转。


　　美联储理事杰斐逊表示，“不要幻想”通胀将很容易恢复到2%，这可能需要一些时间。目前的通胀可能比想象的更持久，但不能只关注一个数据。在不对就业市场造成“不必要的破坏”的情况下，通胀有可能下降。美联储的承诺是(在抗击通胀使命中)“保持一种更坚定的姿态”，这样就能调整经济，供应和需求就能更好地平衡。现在的劳动力市场“非常强劲”，相对于供给，对工人的需求很高。重要的是要让通胀率回到2%，才能让经济持续增长。服务业通胀的进展将在一定程度上取决于劳动力成本的通胀是否放缓。最近的数据显示劳动报酬上涨速度有所减弱。


　　高盛分析，尽管1月份通胀数据强劲，但他们预测核心PCE通胀“今年仍将大幅下降，从目前的4.7%lower12Of the month3.3%”。相比之下，他们之前的预测为2.9%。他们预计通胀上涨将集中在上半年，“主要反映了未来几个月二手车通胀的上升路径，以及住房通胀的小幅上涨。”


The world's largest goldETF--SPDR Gold TrustIncrease in position compared to the previous day0.03%, or0.29Tons, current position is917.61Tons.


According toCMEFederal Reserve Observation: The Federal Reserve3Monthly interest rate increase25Bps to4.75%-5.00%The probability of the interval is75.3%Interest rate hike50Bps to5.00%-5.25%The probability of the interval is24.7%； reach5Monthly cumulative interest rate increase25The probability of a basis point is0%Accumulated interest rate increase50The probability of a basis point is70.7%Accumulated interest rate increase75Bps to5.25%-5.50%The probability of the interval is27.8%Accumulated interest rate increase100Bps to5.50%-5.75%The probability of the interval is1.5%。


Today's Gold Data:


　　15:45France2monthCPIMonthly rate


　　15:45France Q4GDPAnnual rate final value


　　16:00Switzerland2monthKOFEconomic leading indicators


　　21:30Canada12monthGDPMonthly rate


　　22:00U.S.A12monthFHFAMonthly rate of housing price index


　　22:00U.S.A12monthS&P/CS20Annual rate of housing price index in major cities


　　22:45U.S.A2Month ChicagoPMI


　　23:00U.S.A2Monthly Conference Chamber Consumer Confidence Index


　　23:00U.S.A2Monthly Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index


The next day03:30Federal Reserve Gullsby delivers a speech


Technical analysis of gold:


　　黄金昨日先延续偏弱震荡，下方如预期回撤至1807附近，随后行情止跌震荡，晚间在美指回修的激发下，黄金震荡回弹，如预期测压至1820一线，日线最终收得一阳，结束短线连阴局面。


　　日线结构上，黄金虽然昨日收阳，但目前依然还是没能站上5日线上方，目前5Daily line1819附近依然会是短线的争夺压力位，而如果站上5日线，上方10Daily line1827-30一带也继续会带来压制作用，所以短期内黄金暂时还是只能以止跌反弹来看待，日线级别大趋势对于多头是不利的，且基本面预期对于多头也不利，故多头是很难形成反转气候的。预期今日黄金大概率会有一波上涨延续，能否测压至1827-30一带，则还要看美指调整动态，目前黄金与美指节奏高度反向同步，所以黄金回弹的级别也将有美指调整的级别来决定。


　　结合小时图走势，隔夜黄金首次测压至1820附近后出现一次回修，下方回撤1812附近，但随后很快回弹再测1820，这样的状态基本确认了短线的上涨趋势，且短压位1820也得到确认，同时下方支撑也踏稳，日内下方可着重关注1815/14附近支撑，以及1810整数位支撑，如果回踩支撑不破再回升，上方冲破1820的概率将会加大，届时上方可再看1827-30一带压力测试，此位在小时图级别也是非常关键的压力位，所以自1810-05区域展开的止跌回弹，暂时将1827-30一带视作为主要目标区域。综合来看，今日黄金短线操作思路上指南金师建议回调做多为主，反弹做空为辅，上方短期重点关注1827-1830Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1810-1812Frontline support, friends must keep up with the rhythm.


　　2.28Reference for Golden Operation Strategy:


Empty order strategy:


Strategy 1: Gold rebounds1827-1830Short (buy down) 2/10 positions in batches nearby, stop loss6Points, target1820-1815Nearby, break down and take a look1810frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


Multiple order strategy:


Strategy 2: Gold Callback1810-1812Nearby batch long (buy up) 2/10 positions, stop loss6Points, target1820-1825Nearby, break down and take a look1830frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


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