Guide Metallographer:2.27Today's gold trend analysis shows that there is still selling pressure on gold in the short term

　　goldMessage interpretation:


　　基本面上，美国经济数据整体转强，美联储会议纪要也意外表现鹰派，并显示，仍有“少数”联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)成员倾向于加息50个基点，而不是2月份会议上更为鸽派的加息25个基点。同时，美联储各官员也集体发表鹰派言论；


　　再者，随着美联储首选的通胀指标——核心个人消费支出价格(PCE)指数——在1月份加速上涨，达到4.7%Higher than expected4.3%。也继续支撑美联储鹰派观点，也令美联储对于利率将有多高方面有一个重大重置。人们现在认为利率峰值将超过6%。这足够对黄金造成大幅的回落需求。


　　不过，《玩赚黄金投资交易》作者指南金师认为：地缘紧张局势仍有望支持金价，同时世界黄金协会的报告都看好金价长期前景。


　　目前美联储利率再度被推升，这也会降低美国经济软着陆的几率。另外，利率的进一步上升最终也将导致大幅降息。如果美联储真的加息到6%，那只是意味着它可以在以后降息600个基点，这对黄金来说是非常有利的。未来将是持有黄金的好时机。


　　短期来看，金价将受到利率峰值和通胀的高企而走强动力受限，但通胀和地缘政治不确定性也是帮助金价在关键技术水平获得支撑的看涨因素。因而，金价的回落相对于未来的涨幅，下方空间是有限的，或者是甚小的。


　　综合来看，虽然在延长加息利率的峰值，但从加息力度上，则是缓慢的，也就是保持25个加息基点的力度，这则相比之前的50Basis points and75个基点的压力甚小，金价对此回落的空间也在越发减弱，故此，只要不是50个基点或者更高的加息步伐，那么，对于金价的压力则只是短线的也或是有限的。


　　长期来看，一旦美国加息周期明显结束，黄金的吸引力应该会再次缓慢上升。如果情况变得明朗，美联储将不得不再次收回部分加息举措，黄金的吸引力将更加显著。如果要到美联储期望的2%目标，个人仍然预计会到2024年的下半年或者是2025年初，故此，降息预期也将放在2024Year or2025年。所以，今年仍然是震荡承压的一年，但也是长期看涨进行买入机会的一年。值得一抓。如果说，2016年我说抄底的话，你没有把握机会，那么这次的机会，希望不要错过。


Today's Focus Data:


　　18:00eurozone2Monthly Industrial and Economic Prosperity Index


　　18:00eurozone2Final value of monthly consumer confidence index


　　21:30Canadian Q4 Current Account


　　21:30U.S.A1Monthly rate of durable goods orders


　　23:00U.S.A1Monthly rate of contracted sales index for completed housing


　　23:30U.S.A2Dallas Fed Business Activity Index for the Month


　　23:30Federal Reserve Director Jefferson delivers a speech


Technical analysis of gold:


Gold bottomed out last Friday1818After a significant increase in the vicinity, after repeatedly adjusting the upward test pressure level at the beginning of last week, multiple tests were conducted1845-47The pressure level at this position has repeatedly started to run downwards after multiple tests without breaking, and the high and low points have also decreased accordingly. It will be stepped back on Thursday1817After the first line, it went through the cycle again and fell below on Friday after the cycle1817-18After this short-term low point, inertia plummeted and briefly touched in the evening1808On the front line, the daily trend of four consecutive bearish and weak declines has begun to test the strong platform support at the end of last year1800In the short term, with the gradual release of bearish positions, it will be difficult to have a significant decline in the short term if there is no further downward trend on Monday. It is necessary to accumulate momentum after repeated periods and add pressure on the fundamentals in order to have the space and momentum to continue the downward trend. Please pay attention to the above1820Strong pressure nearby.


At present, the weakness in gold consolidation will continue, and the gold operation strategy at the beginning of this week is still mainly based on high-altitude thinking. Please pay attention to it below1790Nearby support breaking situation, short-term operation approaching1790Not chasing short positions nearby is not a reason to go long. It is necessary to make a decision based on the current market situation. Before there is a special form of reverse drawing, we will still operate around the bearish mentality, and gold will close1810Nearby, so after the opening, we can start by reverse drawing and lay out empty orders, while the pressure above will also maintain the top and bottom conversion in the early stage1818-1820On the front line, this position can also serve as a short-term bullish/bearish watershed position. If we break through this position in the later stage of backtracking, we still need to consider whether there is a possibility of bullish backtracking, and the support below will also be maintained at an integer level1800On the front line, we can also try to make a short-term and long-term goal1815-18Nearby, it should be noted that this week is not a non farm week and is likely to be in a volatile mode. We are cautious in chasing gains and killing losses. Overall, today's gold short-term operation strategy is guided by the guidance of gold analysts, who suggest a rebound and short selling as the main approach, supplemented by a pullback and long selling. The short-term focus should be on the upper part1817-1820Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1800-1805Frontline support, friends must keep up with the rhythm.


　　2.27Reference for Golden Operation Strategy:


Empty order strategy:


Strategy 1: Gold rebounds1820-1822Short (buy down) 2/10 positions in batches nearby, stop loss6Points, target1810-1805Nearby, break down and take a look1800frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


Multiple order strategy:


Strategy 2: Gold Callback1803-1805Nearby batch long (buy up) 2/10 positions, stop loss6Points, target1810-1815Nearby, break down and take a look1820frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


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Solid Harvest Operation Plan:


　　1、5000The US dollar mini position is operated with a stable and conservative approach, with an expected return point of50%above


　　2、1-3A standard position of 10000 US dollars, operated through a combination of medium and short term operations, with expected revenue potential70%above


　　3、8Senior positions above $10000, supplemented by short-term and medium-term positions, with long-term positions as the main focus, with expected revenue potential90%above