ATFX: The minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting show that all the voting committees support interest rate increases25basic point

This morning3:00The minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting released showed that all the Fed officials who served as the voting committee at the meeting voted for raising interest rates25Bps, a few non-voting committees hope to raise interest rates50Because the vote committee believed that although there were signs that inflation in the United States was falling, it was not enough to make them decide to stop raising interest rates. United States1monthCPIThe growth rate is6.4%, at2021year11The lowest value since September, but still higher than2%Moderate inflation level.2022year6Month to date, USACPIGrowth rate from9.1%fall to6.4%, basically decreasing every month0.34%。 Based on this deceleration estimate, the United StatesCPIThe growth rate has decreased to2%It still takes a year. Considering that there will be months of rebound, truly achieving2%The inflation rate may take a year and a half. There is still a long way to go for future economic data, and financial markets are rushing to predict when the Federal Reserve will stop raising interest rates, which seems too hasty.


The US dollar index has been in a rebound state since February, and the current quotation is approaching105Integer level. The logic of analysis cannot replace the market price, which is the reality. The rebound in the US dollar index means that some funds in the financial market are betting that the Fed's rate hike will continue for a longer period of time. If the strong state of the US labor market continues, there will be more and more funds betting on long-term interest rate hikes, and the US dollar index will gradually rise. such as2month3The report on non agricultural employment released on the th, adding new employment population51.7Ten thousand people, much higher than the previous value22Ten thousand people, the US dollar index rose sharply on the same day1.23%。 In fact, the core reason for the Federal Reserve to gradually stop raising interest rates is to worry about signs of macroeconomic recession, and the strong job market contradicts the expectations of economic recession. This also means that we can link the timing of the Federal Reserve stopping interest rate hikes with the US non farm employment report, and as the latter's performance deteriorates, the likelihood of stopping interest rate hikes will increase.

The US dollar index is not only influenced by inward oriented Federal Reserve monetary policy, but also by outward oriented international relations. The higher the risk aversion sentiment in other developed economies, the greater the likelihood of appreciation of the US dollar index. For example, during the Asian financial crisis, during the Brexit period, during the Trump administration when sanctions were imposed on countries, and so on.2022In the first three quarters of the year, because the Russia-Ukraine conflict caused a heavy blow to the euro zone economy, the risk aversion continued to rise, and the dollar index once rose to110upper. According to this logic, if2023In the first half of, geopolitical risk events, such as the Middle East, the Korean Peninsula, and even the intensification of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, will significantly boost the dollar index.

The size of federal government of the United States debt this month19Daily Arrival31.4A statutory debt ceiling of trillions of dollars. Finance Minister Yellen has issued multiple warnings. If the federal government defaults, its credit rating will be downgraded, and the US dollar index is highly likely to experience a decline. Of course, the greatest possibility is that the federal government will continue to raise the debt ceiling, repay old debts with new ones, and maintain the operation of the White House.

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There are risks in the market, and investment needs to be cautious. The above content only represents the analyst's personal views and does not constitute any operational suggestions. Please do not consider this report as the sole reference. At different times, analysts' perspectives may change, and updates will not be notified separately.
2023-02-23