Guide Metallographer:2.22Today's gold trend analysis shows that gold prices are expanding and falling, intensifying volatility

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Market Review:


InternationalgoldTuesday(2month21day)Volatile closing price1843.06dollar/Ounces, highest price1843.88dollar/Ounces, lowest price1830.03dollar/Ounces, closing price1838.58dollar/ounce.


Interpretation of the Golden News:


The United States announced on Tuesday2monthMarkitmanufacturingPMIInitial value recorded47.8Higher than market expectations47.1, previous value is46.9； U.S.A2monthMarkitService industryPMIInitial value recorded50.5Higher than market expectations47.5, previous value is46.8.


Chief Business Economist, Global Market Intelligence, S&PChris Williamson表示，在经历了7个月的下滑之后，2月份的商业活动出现了可喜的企稳。尽管面临加息和生活成本紧缩的不利因素，但随着通胀见顶和衰退风险消退的迹象，企业情绪已经好转。与此同时，供应紧张程度有所缓解，工厂原材料的交付时间正在以自2009年以来未曾见过的速度改善。PMI数据好转，但也有一些警惕信号。经济好转是由服务业推动的，这在一定程度上反映了反常的温暖天气。尽管制造业调查数据显示出改善迹象，但制造业仍处于收缩状态，主要集中在库存减少上。供应状况的改善已经消除了制造业供应链的价格压力，但调查数据强调，在劳动力市场紧张的情况下，通胀的上行驱动力现在已经转移到工资上。服务业价格的加速增长可能会引发人们对工资和物价螺旋式上升的担忧，这将增加加息的呼声，而加息又可能抑制刚刚出现的经济扩张。


The United States announced on Tuesday1Annualized total sales of completed houses400万户，低于市场预期410Ten thousand households, with a previous value of402Ten thousand households.


　　全美房地产经纪人协会首席经济学家Yun评论称，房屋销售正在触底反弹。房价的变化取决于市场的承受能力，房价较低的地区增长温和，而房价较高的地区则出现下跌。他补充表示，库存量仍然很低，但买家开始有了更好的议价能力。在市场上挂牌60天以上的房子可以以低于原价10%左右的价格购买。而最近，随着利率的上升，抵押贷款利率也一直在上升。


　　欧洲央行行长拉加德表示，预计2023年不会有欧元区国家出现经济衰退。整体通胀已经开始放缓。目前没有看到欧元区的工资-物价螺旋上升。打算在3Monthly interest rate hike50个基点。利率有多高将取决于数据。


According toCMEFederal Reserve Observation: The Federal Reserve3Monthly interest rate increase25Bps to4.75%-5.00%The probability of the interval is76.0%Interest rate hike50Bps to5.00%-5.25%The probability of the interval is24.0%； reach5Monthly cumulative interest rate increase25The probability of a basis point is0.4%Accumulated interest rate increase50The probability of a basis point is75.7%Accumulated interest rate increase75Bps to5.25%-5.50%The probability of the interval is23.9%。


Today's Focus Data:


　　09:00New Zealand Federal Reserve Announces Interest Rate Resolution


　　10:00New Zealand Federal Reserve Holds a Press Conference


　　15:00Germany1monthCPIMonthly rate final value


　　17:00Germany2monthIFOBusiness Prosperity Index


　　17:00Switzerland2monthZEWInvestor confidence index


The next day03:00Federal Reserve Announcement2Monthly Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes


Technical analysis of gold:


Gold fluctuated and recovered yesterday, and the European market briefly retreated to1830On the first line, the late market has rebounded and measured pressure1844On the first line, after the US data, gold returned to a weak and volatile state, and the daily line eventually closed at a small negative line, closing at5Off the daily line. In terms of daily structure, the trend of gold in the first two days was not so ideal. It was originally expected that on the basis of exploring the rebound line on Friday, the market could expand its rebound space and test it10Daily pressure, but no testing was conducted in the end10The process of daily trading, on the contrary, wasted the short-term rebound opportunity in yesterday's market and regained its momentum5On a daily basis, such a state is enough to show that the current market sentiment is unusually unstable when the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting are coming, and the overall state is relatively weak. Bull confidence is difficult to be supported. The expected rate of gold for the day will still revolve around5The daily line oscillates, and if there is a rebound, stand up5Above the daily line, it is also allowed, but currently10The daily line has been moved down1846Nearby, this may also become the main pressure level for the day. Stay tuned below for the day1830-27The support band test shows that the Asian and European stock market is likely to operate within the above range. Finally, we will wait for the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting in the early morning tomorrow for further reference and direction selection.


On the golden hour chart, yesterday's gold trend also appeared very strange. When it was technically necessary to rise during the Asian session, the market was constantly affected by*Despite not rising, there has been a panic selling and suppression during the European trading period. The late trading market was exceptionally active, but another rally was no longer technically necessary. Ultimately, the rally did not succeed, and the market was shaken back to its original form under the influence of data. At present, although the gold structure on the hour chart still retains the "head shoulder bottom" shape, it can no longer be expected based on this shape. The short-term market tends to fluctuate horizontally, and at the same time, the originally expected head shoulder bottom shape has also changed on the hour chart level1837-35It will be used as the right shoulder support, and is currently lowered to1830-27Although there is still hope for the hourly chart level head and shoulders to continue without breaking this level, the future upward space and momentum will definitely be greatly affected. Of course, it still exists now. Let's try again1845If we try again, the possibility of1845If you still cannot stand above this position, it is very likely that you will fall again, or even break the level1818The possibility of. At present, gold only needs to wait1845Here, if you can't go up, rely on it1845Open a short position. If the future market stabilizes again1845Here, then we need to pay attention to1868/70This position, this iscpiThe high point played is likely to be touched again. Overall, in today's gold short-term operation guidelines, gold analysts suggest a pullback and long selling as the main approach, supplemented by a rebound and short selling, with a focus on short-term trading above1847-1850Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1828-1830Frontline support, friends must keep up with the rhythm.


　　2.22Reference for Golden Operation Strategy:


Empty order strategy:


Strategy 1: Gold rebounds1845-1847Short (buy down) 2/10 positions in batches nearby, stop loss6Points, target1840-1835Nearby, break down and take a look1830frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


Multiple order strategy:


Strategy 2: Gold Callback1832-1834Nearby batch long (buy up) 2/10 positions, stop loss6Points, target1840-1845Nearby, break down and take a look1850frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


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Solid Harvest Operation Plan:


　　1、5000The US dollar mini position is operated with a stable and conservative approach, with an expected return point of50%above


　　2、1-3A standard position of 10000 US dollars, operated through a combination of medium and short term operations, with expected revenue potential70%above


　　3、8Senior positions above $10000, supplemented by short-term and medium-term positions, with long-term positions as the main focus, with expected revenue potential90%above