Guide Metallographer:2.20Today's gold trend analysis shows that gold is expected to hit the bottom this week

　　goldMessage interpretation:


　　基本面上，由于近期强劲的宏观经济数据和美联储官员的鹰派言论引发了美国债券收益率和美元的反弹，也挑战了市场对美联储可能将降息的想法，打压黄金价格连续下跌，技术前景表明，黄金在向上修正之前有更多的下行空间，因而本周美国发布的数据应该有助于令金价形成回落的底部看涨支撑。


Last weekCPI数据虽降幅不及预期，但整体趋势也仍保持着下降的前景，就算通胀再次加速升温，预计也难以再度刷新40年的高点，因而也不会再令美联储产生75个基点的加息力度。


　　所以综合来看，美联储掉期定价不管是否会在美联储2023year7月的政策利率峰值将达到5.25%后继续提高，还是开始转降息，市场对于美联储的讲话和政策反应也愈发减弱；


　　另外，根据通胀的降幅，从9.1下降到目前的6.4用了7个月时间，如果要到美联储期望的2%目标，预计会到2024年的下半年或者是2025年初，故此，降息预期也将放在24Year or25年。所以，今年仍然是震荡的一年，但也是长期看涨进行买入机会的一年。


Technical analysis of gold:


　　黄金上周持续阴跌调整，低点跌至1818一线，周五晚盘行情有所反弹，最终回到1840上方，日线收得一带有长下影线的阳线。


From the perspective of daily structure, last week gold has been bullish, mixed with a cross star line, resulting in a stalemate between bulls and bears. The main manifestation is that bulls have a deliberate rebound but do not have actual and effective momentum, and the fundamentals do not have absolute positive support, resulting in insufficient confidence, limited momentum follow-up, and no strong bearish fundamentals. This also leads to bearish bearish bearish bearish bearish bearish bearish bearish bearish bearish bearish bearish bearish bearish bearish bearish bearish bearish bearish bearish bearish bearish bearish bearish bearish bearish bearish bearish bearish bearish bearish bearish bearish bear, However, maintaining this bearish trend in the short term is sufficient, and the later market also requires more time cycles to digest. Technically, gold has arrived in the main target area we had anticipated earlier1830-20One area, and1820有刺破动作，也预示空头的相对偏强状态。周五行情回撤至趋势线支撑位，技术指标超跌，且又有底部背离信号，加之周内一直阴跌下行，所以周五的回弹更像是技术性的超跌反弹，带有一定的报复回弹情绪，所以周五收阳也就不足为其。从日线结构来看，本周黄金大概率是会有延续回弹的，上方先关注5Daily line1843Nearby competition, this position has already been pierced last Friday, so the probability of breaking through this pressure within the week will also increase. Therefore, the upper level can pay more attention60Daily line1847/48附近压力，10Daily line1853-55Nearby pressures may become short-term suppressions, so watching the performance of these two pressures measured at the beginning of the week may also be related to the impact of Thursday's Federal Reserve meeting minutes.


　　结合小时图走势，周五晚盘黄金的上涨，走出一个头肩底的雏形，左肩位1830-27，头部1820-18，颈部位1843-45，按此形态预期，本周初下方1830附近可视作为右肩位，行情回撤1835-30一带便可能会止步，而1843-45颈部位一旦突破，则上方或将再有10-15美金左右空间，即可延伸至1855-60一带，而此位也刚好是10日线附近压力，以及前期两日大阴线下跌的低点位，所以本周可将1855-60一带视作为多头反弹的终极压力位。综合来看，今日黄金短线操作思路上指南金师建议回调做多为主，反弹做空为辅，上方短期重点关注1855-1860Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1830-1835Frontline support, friends must keep up with the rhythm.


　　2.20Reference for Golden Operation Strategy:


Empty order strategy:


Strategy 1: Gold rebounds1855-1860Short (buy down) 2/10 positions in batches nearby, stop loss6Points, target1850-1845Nearby, break down and take a look1840frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


Multiple order strategy:


Strategy 2: Gold Callback1835-1837Nearby batch long (buy up) 2/10 positions, stop loss6Points, target1845-1850Nearby, break down and take a look1860frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


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Solid Harvest Operation Plan:


　　1、5000The US dollar mini position is operated with a stable and conservative approach, with an expected return point of50%above


　　2、1-3A standard position of 10000 US dollars, operated through a combination of medium and short term operations, with expected revenue potential70%above


　　3、8Senior positions above $10000, supplemented by short-term and medium-term positions, with long-term positions as the main focus, with expected revenue potential90%above