Guide Metallographer:2.20今日黄金走势分析，金价触底反弹或难改震荡

Market Review:


InternationalgoldFriday(2month17day)触底反弹，开盘价1834.43dollar/Ounces, highest price1845.11dollar/Ounces, lowest price1818.71dollar/Ounces, closing price1834.22dollar/ounce.


Interpretation of the Golden News:


United States1月咨商会领先指标月率录得-0.3%, in line with market expectations, with a previous value of-0.8%。


　　分析称，在领先指标中，制造业新订单、消费者对商业条件的预期和信贷条件的恶化抵消了劳动力市场和股票价格的优势，导致该指数在该月下降。虽然数据继续预示着美国经济短期内将陷入衰退，但迄今为止，包括就业和个人收入在内的劳动力市场相关指标依然强劲。尽管如此，世界大型企业联合会仍预计，高通胀、利率上升和消费支出萎缩将使美国经济在2023年陷入衰退。


　　美联储官员巴尔金表示，喜欢25个基点的加息路径，因为这让他们拥有灵活性来应对经济形势，这取决于经济数据的演变。(25个基点的加息步伐)意味着，如果通胀过热，他可以更频繁地加息至更高水平；如果通胀改善，他也可以放心地后退。他认为，这是平衡(经济中)固有的不确定性和人们希望做足够多的事情来控制通胀，但又不至于不必要地做得过多的最佳方式。


　　分析称，预计美国1monthPCE物价指数将环比上涨0.5%, for2022年年中以来最大涨幅，核心PCE物价指数将上涨0.4%。核心物价指数不包括食品和燃料，能更好地反映潜在通胀。通胀月率上涨有望减缓通胀年率的缓和速度，目前年率仍远高于美联储的目标。


　　高盛分析，其对美联储利率峰值为5.25%-5.5%的预测基础上，增加了6Monthly interest rate hike25个基点的可能性。该投行之所以做出这一决定，是因为“美国经济增长更加强劲，通胀消息更加坚挺”。美国1monthPPIincrease0.7%，超出预期。高盛称，根据PPIAnd mid-termPPI数据，预计1月份医疗服务类PCEWill increase month on month0.13%。它还估计，上个月核心PCE指数会环比上涨0.55%, year-on-year increase4.50%。高盛表示，他们预计，医疗服务、国际机票、金融服务和处方药的通胀上升，将在1月份推动核心PCE相对于核心CPI的上涨。


According toCMEFederal Reserve Observation: The Federal Reserve3Monthly interest rate increase25Bps to4.75%-5.00%The probability of the interval is81.9%Interest rate hike50Bps to5.00%-5.25%The probability of the interval is18.1%； reach5Monthly cumulative interest rate increase25The probability of a basis point is6.7%Accumulated interest rate increase50The probability of a basis point is76.7%Accumulated interest rate increase75Bps to5.25%-5.50%The probability of the interval is16.6%。


　　(因美国总统日，美股休市，CME旗下合约提前收市)


Technical analysis of gold:


　　黄金上周持续阴跌调整，低点跌至1818一线，周五晚盘行情有所反弹，最终回到1840上方，日线收得一带有长下影线的阳线。


From the perspective of daily structure, last week gold has been bullish, mixed with a cross star line, resulting in a stalemate between bulls and bears. The main manifestation is that bulls have a deliberate rebound but do not have actual and effective momentum, and the fundamentals do not have absolute positive support, resulting in insufficient confidence, limited momentum follow-up, and no strong bearish fundamentals. This also leads to bearish bearish bearish bearish bearish bearish bearish bearish bearish bearish bearish bearish bearish bearish bearish bearish bearish bearish bearish bearish bearish bearish bearish bearish bearish bearish bearish bearish bearish bearish bearish bearish bearish bear, However, maintaining this bearish trend in the short term is sufficient, and the later market also requires more time cycles to digest. Technically, gold has arrived in the main target area we had anticipated earlier1830-20One area, and1820有刺破动作，也预示空头的相对偏强状态。周五行情回撤至趋势线支撑位，技术指标超跌，且又有底部背离信号，加之周内一直阴跌下行，所以周五的回弹更像是技术性的超跌反弹，带有一定的报复回弹情绪，所以周五收阳也就不足为其。从日线结构来看，本周黄金大概率是会有延续回弹的，上方先关注5Daily line1843Nearby competition, this position has already been pierced last Friday, so the probability of breaking through this pressure within the week will also increase. Therefore, the upper level can pay more attention60Daily line1847/48附近压力，10Daily line1853-55Nearby pressures may become short-term suppressions, so watching the performance of these two pressures measured at the beginning of the week may also be related to the impact of Thursday's Federal Reserve meeting minutes.


　　结合小时图走势，周五晚盘黄金的上涨，走出一个头肩底的雏形，左肩位1830-27，头部1820-18，颈部位1843-45，按此形态预期，本周初下方1830附近可视作为右肩位，行情回撤1835-30一带便可能会止步，而1843-45颈部位一旦突破，则上方或将再有10-15美金左右空间，即可延伸至1855-60一带，而此位也刚好是10日线附近压力，以及前期两日大阴线下跌的低点位，所以本周可将1855-60一带视作为多头反弹的终极压力位。综合来看，今日黄金短线操作思路上指南金师建议回调做多为主，反弹做空为辅，上方短期重点关注1855-1860Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1830-1835Frontline support, friends must keep up with the rhythm.


　　2.20Reference for Golden Operation Strategy:


Empty order strategy:


Strategy 1: Gold rebounds1855-1860Short (buy down) 2/10 positions in batches nearby, stop loss6Points, target1850-1845Nearby, break down and take a look1840frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


Multiple order strategy:


Strategy 2: Gold Callback1835-1837Nearby batch long (buy up) 2/10 positions, stop loss6Points, target1845-1850Nearby, break down and take a look1860frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


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Solid Harvest Operation Plan:


　　1、5000The US dollar mini position is operated with a stable and conservative approach, with an expected return point of50%above


　　2、1-3A standard position of 10000 US dollars, operated through a combination of medium and short term operations, with expected revenue potential70%above


　　3、8Senior positions above $10000, supplemented by short-term and medium-term positions, with long-term positions as the main focus, with expected revenue potential90%above