Guide Metallographer:2.18Next week's gold trend analysis, the gold price rebounded from a new low!

　　goldMessage interpretation:


Friday(2month17day)International gold prices continue to decline and hit last year's record12New low since the end of the month1821.75dollar/盎司，原因是投资者担心美联储在一系列强劲的经济数据公布后会进一步加息。美联储官员甚至表示，2月份加息力度不够。


　　“本周公布的数据显示美国零售销售走强和消费者价格高企，似乎正在推动预期重估......The market believes that the Federal Reserve will become more hawkish, which is very detrimental to gold He pointed out that in this context, real interest rates have rebounded, so non yield asset gold has been declining. Several Federal Reserve officials stated this week that monetary policy needs to remain tight in order to lower inflation rates to the Federal Reserve's2%Goal. Two Federal Reserve officials on Thursday(2month16day)The Federal Reserve should have raised interest rates more significantly at the beginning of this month.


　　克利夫兰联储主席梅斯特发表了一些鹰派言论。她表示，通胀仍然过高，且风险偏向上行，暗示终端利率可能远高于5%。梅斯特还补充说，在最近美联储会议上，已经讨论了加息50个基点。圣路易斯联储主席布拉德同意美联储有充分的理由在最近的利率决定中表现得更加激进。“我主张加息50个基点，我认为利率应该尽快达到委员会认为足够严格的水平。”


　　隔夜公布的数据显示，美国1月生产者价格指数环比反弹0.7%。与此同时，最近一周美国初请失业金人数下滑至194000人。货币市场现在预计，联邦基金利率将在5Monthly increase5%以上，且年内不会降息。他们现在预测美联储将在3Month5Month and6月的会议上各加息25个基点；联邦基金利率峰值将升至5.25%-5.50%。强劲的经济增长和顽固的高通胀似乎是促使美联储在今年第二季度继续加息的主要原因。


　　强劲的劳动力和零售销售数据正在引发高通胀顽固化预期，这意味着美联储可能加息比预期更高的水准。这对金价来说是一个下行风险。投资者的净多头头寸已经增加，但实物配置(adoptETFhold)仍然缺失。较高的金价也在影响实物需求，央行买盘一直很有弹性。


Technical analysis of gold:


Gold has shown weakness this week, without a major level of stabilization, and the upward trend is just a flash in the pan, which is a manifestation of weakness. The washing of gold prices, due to a rise but lack of stabilization, has led to a trend of market washing. Gold continued to be under pressure after breaking through the previous low and volatile range on the daily trend. The short-term moving average weakened and touched the previous daily line within the day1820After a small rebound near the support belt in the area, pay attention to the strength of the rebound at this position on the daily line. On the daily trend, prices have fallen below the previous low volatility range and are currently under pressure1840After a continuous decline, there are signs of starting to stabilize slightly, and there may be some room for rebound and repair in the short-term trend.


Gold4小时级别：它的macdThe bottom deviation is obvious, but the repair time varies, and the squeezing time of the deviation also varies. This time, it will obviously be a long process; Although deviating, one cannot immediately look for a reversal, and at the same time, one cannot blindly pursue a decline after refreshing a low;10The moving average and mid range track are still the best positions for multiple ambushes and bearish positions in the short term. If there is a large rebound in oversold, the limit is to touch below66日均线依旧会打压下去，保持继续反弹看跌为主；


　　黄金小时线级别：隔夜压制1845，且顶部出现受压形态，原本计划反抽通道反压（下移1842）Continuing to be bearish, but helpless, the price went straight down without giving any chance to rebound; According to the guidance of the lower track of the channel, the primary support is1817-18On the front line, there are certain signs of rebound here, and whether there can be expansion and correction depends on whether we can stand on it10The moving average is the only way to have a chance to touch the middle track1831-32and66Daily moving average1838-40，也是继续顺势看跌的两个参考点；既然通道明显失守，则逢高继续看跌下去；日线走势上，空头继续形成延续，而且从日KIt can be seen that after each adjustment, the gold price will form a drop that breaks through the previous low. Currently, there is no sign of a stop in the daily decline. The conditions for the daily line to contain the stop in the decline are either a strong positive to regain the previous negative, or a continuous positive to stop the decline, so the daily line still has a trend of continued decline; In the short term, yesterday1818一线形成支撑，金价连续低位震荡后美盘小幅反弹拉升，综合来看，后市黄金短线操作思路上指南金师建议反弹做空为主，回调做多为辅，上方短期重点关注1842-1845Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1818-1815Frontline support, friends must keep up with the rhythm.


　　下周一黄金操作策略参考：


Empty order strategy:


Strategy 1: Gold rebounds1840-1843Short (buy down) 2/10 positions in batches nearby, stop loss6Points, target1830-1825Nearby, break down and take a look1820frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


Multiple order strategy:


Strategy 2: Gold Callback1818-1820Nearby batch long (buy up) 2/10 positions, stop loss6Points, target1825-1830Nearby, break down and take a look1835frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


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Solid Harvest Operation Plan:


　　1、5000The US dollar mini position is operated with a stable and conservative approach, with an expected return point of50%above


　　2、1-3A standard position of 10000 US dollars, operated through a combination of medium and short term operations, with expected revenue potential70%above


　　3、8Senior positions above $10000, supplemented by short-term and medium-term positions, with long-term positions as the main focus, with expected revenue potential90%above