Guide Metallographer:2.16Today's gold trend analysis, gold slightly shook

　　goldMessage interpretation:


Wednesday Beijing time21:30, USA1Monthly retail sales rate recorded3%, for2021year3月以来最大增幅，大超预期的1.80%, previous value is-1.10%。


　　数据公布后，美元指数短线走高20Point, approximation104Gateway. United States2-5Yields of one-year treasury bond bonds touch2023年新高。美国2Period and10年期国债收益率倒挂幅度进一步扩大至89.8个基点，而现货黄金跌逾4USD to1831.23dollar/ounce.


　　据分析师解释，汽车销售激增和油价上涨可能为零售销售增长提供了动力，此外，1月天气好转令餐馆销售增长。报告显示，所有13个零售类别上月都出现了增长，其中汽车、家具和饮食涨幅较大。


　　数据凸显出美国消费在2023年有了一个良好的开端，从去年底的支出放缓中反弹。美国1月份零售销售增幅为近两年来最大，显示出强劲的消费需求，这可能会增强美联储在持续通胀的情况下继续加息的决心。


　　实际上，由于美国劳动力市场具有弹性，失业率处于历史低位，工资增长强劲，许多美国人仍得以在借贷成本上升、通胀居高不下的情况下仍能继续购买商品和服务。


　　《华尔街日报》也指出，就业增长加速和通胀在年初略有降温，推动了美国的零售额大幅上升。通胀、借贷成本上升以及经济的不确定性导致美国家庭在去年年底减少了支出。但1The monthly non farm employment report was unexpectedly strong, and salary growth remains strong, indicating a good outlook for consumer spending in the near future. Some analysts believe that economic growth may accelerate.


　　Naroff Economics LLCCEOJoel Naroffexpress:


　　“消费者的状况相当不错。当人们对自己的工作状况感到满意时，就会转化为消费支出。”


　　然而，一些经济学家警告说，不要过度解读零售额的跃升。季节性调整因素可能夸大了1月份的零售销售。1月份就业井喷式增长的部分原因是季节性调整因素。Wrightson ICAPchief economist Lou Crandallexpress:


　　“归根结底，消费的潜在趋势不像12月数据显示的那样疲弱，但也不像1月数据可能显示的那么强劲。”


　　经济学家指出，类似上个月的大幅上涨情况不太可能成为今年的常态，原因在于美联储仍在提高利率以试图抑制通胀，这一策略通过削弱经济来发挥作用。较高的借贷成本抑制了消费者支出和商业投资。


　　无论如何，美国经济的韧性突显了美联储面临的挑战。在劳动力市场出现疲软迹象之前，需求可能会保持高位，这意味着美联储将需要继续加息或在更长的时间里维持限制性的高利率。


　　机构认为，最新数据再次表明，美国经济可能过热，通胀短期内难以下降，这也是美国国债收益率走高的原因。


United States1月份零售额增幅超过预期，表明尽管宏观经济环境充满挑战，但消费者需求仍具有弹性。在经历了连续两个月的下滑和低于预期的假日销售季之后，销售额的反弹对零售商来说是一个可喜的转变。然而，对于美联储来说，强劲的销售报告是它最不希望看到的。正如美联储官员一再表示的那样，美联储的加息决定将以数据为指导。而最近的经济指标表明美国经济仍然过热，不符合美联储的期望。美联储可能确实还有更多工作要做


Today's Focus Data:


　　15:00britain1monthCPIMonthly rate of retail price index


　　18:00eurozone12Monthly adjusted trade account


　　18:00eurozone12Monthly industrial output rate


　　21:30Canada12Monthly wholesale sales rate


　　21:30U.S.A1Monthly retail sales rate


　　21:30U.S.A2New York Fed Manufacturing Index for the Month


　　22:00European Central Bank President Lagarde delivers a speech


　　22:15U.S.A1Monthly industrial output rate


　　23:00U.S.A2monthNAHBReal Estate Market Index


　　23:00U.S.A12Monthly commercial inventory rate


Technical analysis of gold:


Yesterday, the technical aspect of gold prices was in the eveningcpiUnder the data, there is a wide range of volatility and a big bearish wash, with prices revolving around1870-1843The market oscillated back and forth in a tug of war, eventually falling rapidly downwards in the early morning1850Continuing downward after the checkpoint1843Nearby stabilizing, fluctuating and rebounding, closing with a wide range of oscillating crosseskThe overall price rose, fell, and broke through the bottom, continuing the bullish and bearish oscillation rhythm. However, although there was a slight rebound at the close of yesterday morning, it still suppressed the opening and closing of the US market1868-1870Near the checkpoint, the overall price still suppresses the bearish form, and today's withdrawal relies on yesterday's opening of a falling position1868-1870The region continues to maintain its main bearish position and sees further volatility and decline, with short-term support below focusing on yesterday's low point1843-40Nearby, if the European market stabilizes at this position, it can be seen that the rebound will rebound again in a short period of time. Other positions with multiple orders will not participate, and the main empty space rhythm of the counter drawing will continue to remain unchanged;


From the daily chart, it can be seen thatKThe physical size of the line is not large, and it has entered a narrow range of consolidation rhythm. While consolidating and correcting, it accumulates momentum and moves downwards. However, every time a new low is reached in the short term, it will fall into oscillation, and the slow pace will fluctuate and fall. At present, in the hourly chart structure, the support below gold has once again broken through, and the market is still in a bearish rhythm. Therefore, the rebound will continue to be short selling. However, currently gold continues to maintain1850Based on the above analysis, the daily moving average system is still under pressure. Therefore, today's Guide to Finance suggests that it is still necessary to maintain a high-altitude mindset for operation, and the pressure above will continue to be maintained1865Area.


From4Looking at the hourly chart,4From the hourly chart, it can be seen that the price fluctuates slightly and runs weakly, with the opening of the Bollinger Bands,KDJThe indicators are expected to form a golden cross, but the overall price is currently weak, so we will continue to waitKDJAfter the indicator forms a golden cross, prices begin to rise. Gold is currently maintaining a narrow range of low volatility in its trend, and after completing a wave of market washing yesterdayKThe short-term moving average continues to operate under pressure, and there may be room for further downward movement in the daily trend. After continuous washing of the market in the short-term trend, it continues to maintain a low level of volatility. After continuous fluctuations in the hourly level trend, the technical form begins to gradually recover and complete. There may still be some room for rebound in the short-term trend, but the strength may not be too strong. Overall, today's gold short-term operation strategy is guided by the guidance of gold analysts, who suggest a rebound and short selling as the main approach, supplemented by a pullback and long selling. The short-term focus should be on the upper part1863-1865Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1828-1830Frontline support, friends must keep up with the rhythm.


　　2.15Reference for Golden Operation Strategy:


Empty order strategy:


Strategy 1: Gold rebounds1863-1865Short (buy down) 2/10 positions in batches nearby, stop loss6Points, target1855-1850Nearby, break down and take a look1845frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


Multiple order strategy:


Strategy 2: Gold Callback1828-1830Nearby batch long (buy up) 2/10 positions, stop loss6Points, target1850-1855Nearby, break down and take a look1860frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


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Solid Harvest Operation Plan:


　　1、5000The US dollar mini position is operated with a stable and conservative approach, with an expected return point of50%above


　　2、1-3A standard position of 10000 US dollars, operated through a combination of medium and short term operations, with expected revenue potential70%above


　　3、8Senior positions above $10000, supplemented by short-term and medium-term positions, with long-term positions as the main focus, with expected revenue potential90%above