Guide Metallographer:2.15Today's gold trend analysis shows that the gold price has expanded and the decline has intensified the volatility

Market Review:


InternationalgoldTuesday(2month14day)Maintain a volatile trend, opening price1855.04dollar/Ounces, highest price1870.48dollar/Ounces, lowest price1843.14dollar/Ounces, closing price1852.15dollar/ounce.


Interpretation of the Golden News:


The United States announced on Tuesday1After adjusting the roseCPIMonthly rate recorded0.5%, in line with market expectations, with a previous value of-0.1%； U.S.A1Monthly and quarterly adjustment coreCPIAnnual rate recorded5.6%Higher than market expectations5.5%, previous value is5.7%； U.S.A1Monthly and quarterly adjustmentsCPIAnnual rate recorded6.4%Higher than market expectations6.2%, previous value is6.5%。


Commentary states that at the beginning of this year, the US Consumer Price Index(CPI)A significant increase is a sign of sustained inflationary pressure, which may prompt the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates to higher levels than previously expected. According to data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics on Tuesday, boosted by gasoline and housing costs,1monthCPIMonth on month increase0.5%, year-on-year increase6.4%. Inflation data plus1The strong employment report for the month highlights that despite the Federal Reserve's aggressive policies, the economy and prices remain resilient and sustainable. These data support recent statements by Federal Reserve officials that they need to further raise interest rates and maintain them at high levels for a period of time, possibly reaching higher than previously expected peak levels.


Federal Reserve official Williams stated that the strong job market has led to an increased risk of high inflation. At the end of the year, the federal funds rate was5.00%to5.50%The prospect between them seems reasonable. The Federal Reserve may2024Year2025Reduce interest rates annually to reflect lower inflation. The biggest concern is that high inflation will be embedded in public expectations, and the Federal Reserve has taken "strong and effective" action against high inflation.CPIThe data is consistent with existing inflation theories. Global economic growth is improving, and supply chain constraints are driving inflation. expect2023In the United StatesGDPWill grow1%The unemployment rate is4%-4.5%. expect2023yearPCEThe inflation rate is3%.


Federal Reserve official Huck said the Fed will "absolutely not" change now2%The inflation target. Need to maintain25An interest rate path of one basis point. Interest rates need to be higher5%How much depends on the upcoming data release. Predicting the core inflation rate for this year3.5%about;2024Year is2.5%；2025Year will return2%The goal of.


Federal Reserve official Logan said that more interest rate hikes may be needed than previously anticipated. The most important risk is that the Federal Reserve is tightening too little.


Federal Reserve official Barkin said that if inflation persists, we may or may not raise interest rates, but we will definitely respond to the data, everything depends on the data.CPIThe report roughly meets expectations, but the inertia and persistence of inflation will far exceed our expectations.


Chief American Economist at Deutsche BankMatthew LuzzettiIt is predicted that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in all four future meetings25One basis point, interest rate at7Month reached5.5%-5.75%The peak level of.


According toCMEFederal Reserve Observation: The Federal Reserve3Monthly interest rate increase25Bps to4.75%-5.00%The probability of the interval is90.8%Interest rate hike50Bps to5.00%-5.25%The probability of the interval is9.2%； reach5Monthly cumulative interest rate increase25The probability of a basis point is17.8%Accumulated interest rate increase50The probability of a basis point is74.8%Accumulated interest rate increase75Bps to5.25%-5.50%The probability of the interval is7.4%。 reach6Monthly cumulative interest rate increase75The probability of one basis point is49.7%。


Today's Focus Data:


　　15:00britain1monthCPIMonthly rate of retail price index


　　18:00eurozone12Monthly adjusted trade account


　　18:00eurozone12Monthly industrial output rate


　　21:30Canada12Monthly wholesale sales rate


　　21:30U.S.A1Monthly retail sales rate


　　21:30U.S.A2New York Fed Manufacturing Index for the Month


　　22:00European Central Bank President Lagarde delivers a speech


　　22:15U.S.A1Monthly industrial output rate


　　23:00U.S.A2monthNAHBReal Estate Market Index


　　23:00U.S.A12Monthly commercial inventory rate


Technical analysis of gold:


Yesterday, the technical aspect of gold prices was in the eveningcpiUnder the data, there is a wide range of volatility and a big bearish wash, with prices revolving around1870-1843The market oscillated back and forth in a tug of war, eventually falling rapidly downwards in the early morning1850Continuing downward after the checkpoint1843Nearby stabilizing, fluctuating and rebounding, closing with a wide range of oscillating crosseskThe overall price rose, fell, and broke through the bottom, continuing the bullish and bearish oscillation rhythm. However, although there was a slight rebound at the close of yesterday morning, it still suppressed the opening and closing of the US market1868-1870Near the checkpoint, the overall price still suppresses the bearish form, and today's withdrawal relies on yesterday's opening of a falling position1868-1870The region continues to maintain its main bearish position and sees further volatility and decline, with short-term support below focusing on yesterday's low point1843-40Nearby, if the European market stabilizes at this position, it can be seen that the rebound will rebound again in a short period of time. Other positions with multiple orders will not participate, and the main empty space rhythm of the counter drawing will continue to remain unchanged;


From the daily chart, it can be seen thatKThe physical size of the line is not large, and it has entered a narrow range of consolidation rhythm. While consolidating and correcting, it accumulates momentum and moves downwards. However, every time a new low is reached in the short term, it will fall into oscillation, and the slow pace will fluctuate and fall. At present, in the hourly chart structure, the support below gold has once again broken through, and the market is still in a bearish rhythm. Therefore, the rebound will continue to be short selling. However, currently gold continues to maintain1850Based on the above analysis, the daily moving average system is still under pressure. Therefore, today's Guide to Finance suggests that it is still necessary to maintain a high-altitude mindset for operation, and the pressure above will continue to be maintained1865Area.


From4Looking at the hourly chart,4From the hourly chart, it can be seen that the price fluctuates slightly and runs weakly, with the opening of the Bollinger Bands,KDJThe indicators are expected to form a golden cross, but the overall price is currently weak, so we will continue to waitKDJAfter the indicator forms a golden cross, prices begin to rise. Gold is currently maintaining a narrow range of low volatility in its trend, and after completing a wave of market washing yesterdayKThe short-term moving average continues to operate under pressure, and there may be room for further downward movement in the daily trend. After continuous washing of the market in the short-term trend, it continues to maintain a low level of volatility. After continuous fluctuations in the hourly level trend, the technical form begins to gradually recover and complete. There may still be some room for rebound in the short-term trend, but the strength may not be too strong. Overall, today's gold short-term operation strategy is guided by the guidance of gold analysts, who suggest a rebound and short selling as the main approach, supplemented by a pullback and long selling. The short-term focus should be on the upper part1863-1865Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1840-1843Frontline support, friends must keep up with the rhythm.


　　2.15Reference for Golden Operation Strategy:


Empty order strategy:


Strategy 1: Gold rebounds1863-1865Short (buy down) 2/10 positions in batches nearby, stop loss6Points, target1855-1850Nearby, break down and take a look1845frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


Multiple order strategy:


Strategy 2: Gold Callback1843-1845Nearby batch long (buy up) 2/10 positions, stop loss6Points, target1850-1855Nearby, break down and take a look1860frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


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