Guide Metallographer:2.13Today's gold trend analysis shows that the gold price continues to fluctuate in the day

　　goldMessage interpretation:


Monday(2month13day)，现货黄金重新走低，跌向上个交易日创下的1month6New low since the beginning of the day1852.61dollar/盎司。但投资者在关键的美国通胀数据公布前保持谨慎，可能影响美联储加息路径。美国1monthCPI数据将在北京时间周二(2month14day)21:30公布。市场预计，美国1Monthly OverallCPIAnd the coreCPI分别上涨6.2%and5.5%Below the previous value6.5%and5.7%。但美国劳工部上周五(2month10day)yesCPI数据的年度修正显示，12monthCPI月率被上修。


　　美联储官员和一些经济学家认为，美国薪资水平在2022年增长了约5%，增速虽然低于CPI，但速度还是太快，以至于核心通胀无法持续回落至2%。相比之下，在大流行之前，工资每年增长约3.5%，而当时的通货膨胀率略低于2%。“随着关键的美国通胀数据临近，黄金似乎不愿大幅波动。最新证据表明，通胀仍然居高不下，应该会促使金价进一步回吐今年迄今的涨幅。”但Tan补充道，如果通胀更快缓和，美联储将暂停加息，金价攀升至2000美元的可能性更大。


　　最新发表讲话的费城联储主席哈克上周五(2month10day)表示，他认为美联储政策利率将升至5%以上的某个位置并维持一段时间。市场参与者现在预计，美联储目标利率将在7月份见顶于5.193%，高于美联储去年12月政策会议后预测的4.75%-5%区间，且年底前降息的可能性很小。美联储3月份会议料加息25个基点，但投资者真正关心的问题是美联储将随利率决定发布的经济预测，美联储是否会在5Month and6月的两次会议上继续加息，应该能从中得知一些线索。


　　鲍威尔的目标，随着就业增长激增和工资增长趋于平稳，美国通胀正在稳步下降，与近一年前相比，现在经济前景变得更有希望，可以随着通胀放缓而不会出现痛苦的衰退——实现所谓的软着陆。但核心通胀仍远高于美联储设定的2%目标，美联储官员表示，他们将尽一切努力保持借贷成本居高不下，并防止高通胀成为经济的长期特征。


　　在就业市场火爆的情况下，如果核心通胀也有望接近美联储的2%目标，为什么美联储觉得有必要反复警告，它准备继续加息，哪怕不惜冒着经济衰退的风险？1月份的数据称，美国失业率已达到1969年以来的最低水平3.4%。对于拜登来说，这值得吹嘘一番。但鲍威尔关注低失业率，担心这可能会导致工资飙升，从而推高雇主的用工成本，进而推高价格——这就是所谓的工资-价格螺旋。市场对美联储做出的任何具体政策调整会有何反应是不确定的。市场人士最关心的是，美联储本轮加息周期的利率峰值。如果经济数据继续支持美联储展现鹰派姿态，那么黄金跌破1850美元、甚至下探更低水平也不会让人感到奇怪。


Technical analysis of gold:


　　黄金上周五十字K线收平，整体保持在高位整理，此前大阴K线奠定短期顶部回落，上周局部停顿整理修正，十字K线修正之后，本周仍有下行延续空间，大阴K线没有快速收复。黄金还是弱势震荡慢跌的走势，但值得注意的是，前期1852低点不破，也不太看好大跌空间，因此，周一预计是一个低位震荡吸盘的走势。结合盘面分析，日线低位背离严重，如果CPI数据利多黄金，黄金短期就见底，强弱转换出现，如果CPI利空或者影响不大，黄金维持弱势下跌不变，H4周期目前区间收口非常明显，在没有破位新低的前提下，千万不要追空，这种行情随时都可以反弹，所以追空很可能追到地板上，暂时可见的有效区间在小时线周期1875-1855之内维持在此区间内高空低多。


　　从目前行情节奏来看，在上周四数据机构行情的空头破位探低后，周五收官行情主要以反弹修正为主，围绕前期关键支撑位1860的争夺展开。日线在上周前期碎阳连续后，基本确立底部止跌，最理想的走势是后段行情出现大阳实体配合，这样多头将会更有力展开反攻，但事实是数据行情的干预，导致周四行情出现大阴回撤，破坏了行情的连续性，但周五常规行情依旧继续收线小阳，企稳前期重要支撑1860上方，空头未出现反转延续，多头同样延续性被破坏，所以本周而言前段可以继续维持1855-60相对低位至1880-90相对高位的区间去做底部区间调整的思路应对即可。综合来看，今日黄金短线操作思路上指南金师建议回调做多为主，反弹做空为辅，上方短期重点关注1872-1875First line resistance, followed by1885-90Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1850-1856Frontline support, friends must keep up with the rhythm.


　　2.13Reference for Golden Operation Strategy:


Empty order strategy:


Strategy 1: Gold rebounds1872-1875Short (buy down) 2/10 positions in batches nearby, stop loss6Points, target1865-1860Nearby, break down and take a look1855frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


Multiple order strategy:


Strategy 2: Gold Callback1855-1857Nearby batch long (buy up) 2/10 positions, stop loss6Points, target1865-1875Nearby, break down and take a look1885frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


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Solid Harvest Operation Plan:


　　1、5000The US dollar mini position is operated with a stable and conservative approach, with an expected return point of50%above


　　2、1-3A standard position of 10000 US dollars, operated through a combination of medium and short term operations, with expected revenue potential70%above


　　3、8Senior positions above $10000, supplemented by short-term and medium-term positions, with long-term positions as the main focus, with expected revenue potential90%above