Guide Metallographer:2.13Today's gold trend analysis shows that the gold price expands and falls to maintain volatility

Market Review:


InternationalgoldFriday(2month10day)Maintain a volatile trend, opening price1873.97dollar/Ounces, highest price1875.57dollar/Ounces, lowest price1852.55dollar/Ounces, closing price1859.77dollar/ounce.


Interpretation of the Golden News:


The United States announced on Friday2month1年期通胀率预期录得4.2%Higher than market expectations4.00%, previous value is3.9%。 U.S.A2The initial value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index for the month was recorded66.4Higher than market expectations65, previous value is64.9.


　　评论称，一年期通胀预期本月反弹至4.2%, higher than1Of the month3.9%。长期通胀预期连续第三个月保持在2.9%，过去19Within months18Keep at2.9-3.1%的窄幅区间内。近期短期通胀预期的不确定性有所上涨，并继续显著上升，表明预期的未来一年通胀可能继续波动。相比之下，最近几个月，长期通胀的不确定性有所下降，尽管不确定性远远高于过去20年的平均水平。


　　评论称，消费者信心指数基本持平，较1月份上升1.5个指数点。最近的经济发展，有其积极的和消极的部分，导致消费者的态度不一，2月份的净变化很小。在经历了连续三个月的上涨之后，目前的信心指数比一年前高出近6%，但仍比两年前(当前的通胀事件发生之前)low14%。总体而言，尽管近期通胀有所放缓，但高物价继续令消费者承压，消费者信心仍比1978年以来的历史平均水平低22%以上。再加上对失业率上升的担忧，消费者在未来几个月的支出将更加谨慎。


　　美联储哈克表示，上周公布的意外强劲的就业数据并没有改变他的观点，即转向小幅加息对美联储来说是一个好策略，他指出，如果通胀继续缓解，2024年可能会降息。“目前推动我们加息的是通胀，我们开始看到通胀开始回落的初步迹象。”哈克表示。“此时，我们可以以25个基点的速度加息，在不对劳动力市场造成过度损害的情况下控制通胀，”他说，并补充称，转向小幅加息是美联储的"risk management "Question.


　　摩根大通分析称，美国1monthCPI月率将上涨0.5%, CoreCPI月率也将上涨0.5%。在最近的CPI报告中，二手车价格有所下降，但预计在1月份会有所回升，这一转变将推动月度核心通胀率走强。尽管预计总体和核心CPI月率都将上涨，但通胀年率料将在1月份继续放缓。


According toCMEFederal Reserve Observation: The Federal Reserve3Monthly interest rate increase25Bps to4.75%-5.00%The probability of the interval is90.8%Interest rate hike50Bps to5.00%-5.25%The probability of the interval is9.2%； reach5Monthly cumulative interest rate increase25The probability of a basis point is22.0%Accumulated interest rate increase50The probability of a basis point is71.0%Accumulated interest rate increase75Bps to5.25%-5.50%The probability of the interval is7.0%。


Today's Focus Data:


　　15:30Switzerland1monthCPIMonthly rate


　　18:00欧盟公布经济预期报告


Technical analysis of gold:


　　黄金上周五十字K线收平，整体保持在高位整理，此前大阴K线奠定短期顶部回落，上周局部停顿整理修正，十字K线修正之后，本周仍有下行延续空间，大阴K线没有快速收复。黄金还是弱势震荡慢跌的走势，但值得注意的是，前期1852低点不破，也不太看好大跌空间，因此，周一预计是一个低位震荡吸盘的走势。结合盘面分析，日线低位背离严重，如果CPI数据利多黄金，黄金短期就见底，强弱转换出现，如果CPI利空或者影响不大，黄金维持弱势下跌不变，H4周期目前区间收口非常明显，在没有破位新低的前提下，千万不要追空，这种行情随时都可以反弹，所以追空很可能追到地板上，暂时可见的有效区间在小时线周期1875-1855之内维持在此区间内高空低多。


　　黄金交易思路：建议关注1875-1855区间震荡，根据盘中多空情况，另外具体策略有待实盘实时调整。破位上看1883-1885附近，下看1852-1843Near.


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Solid Harvest Operation Plan:


　　1、5000The US dollar mini position is operated with a stable and conservative approach, with an expected return point of50%above


　　2、1-3A standard position of 10000 US dollars, operated through a combination of medium and short term operations, with expected revenue potential70%above


　　3、8Senior positions above $10000, supplemented by short-term and medium-term positions, with long-term positions as the main focus, with expected revenue potential90%above