Qin Liyan:2.3Gold Today1918Empty as scheduled decline, analysis of non farm market in the evening

　　goldMessage surface parsing:




Friday(2month3day)In the European market, the US dollar index experienced a sudden surge in the short term and is currently approaching102.00Gateway. Spot gold plummeted in the short term, with gold prices falling to1910dollar/Near the ounce pass. On this trading day, investors will receive the US non farm payroll report, which is expected to trigger severe market volatility. It is important to remain cautious in today's trading, especially during the release of US economic data, which may lead to high volatility in major currency pairs and commodities. Analysts point out that if US non farm data is stronger than expected, the US dollar is expected to further rebound, thereby suppressing the trend of other major non US currencies and gold. If the data falls short of expectations, the US dollar may face the risk of a pullback.




Two major central banks announced interest rate hikes within the day. The Bank of England has raised interest rates to4%Implying that interest rates are approaching their peak. It has abandoned its promise to continue "strong" interest rate hikes when necessary and stated that inflation may have peaked. Bank of England9Interest rate setters7Vote in favor2The vote against the bank interest rate will be adjusted from3.5%Up to4.0%This is from2008At the highest level since the beginning of the year, their expectations for an economic recession this year have softened. This move was expected by most investors and economists. The Bank of England is attempting to curb the UK without exacerbating the expected recession10%The risk brought by inflation rate, which represents the risk of2021year12The interest rate hike since the beginning of the month may have an increasingly significant impact on the economy.




Analysis suggests that the US dollar seems to benefit from the successive interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, Bank of England, and European Central Bank. Federal Reserve raises interest rates25Basis points, while the UK and ECB raise interest rates50One basis point. However, US interest rates remain at a relatively high level, providing support for the US dollar. The elasticity of the US labor market suggests that the Federal Reserve may need to further raise interest rates and maintain high rates for a longer period of time, despite many investors betting that monetary policy will begin to relax later this year. On the US side, to1month28Record of initial claims for unemployment benefits for the current week18.3Ten thousand people, for2022year4month23New low since the beginning of the current week. The number of initial jobless claims in the United States has declined for the fourth time in five weeks, highlighting the widespread resilience of the job market, which may keep inflation high. According to the latest released data, the number of people applying for and renewing unemployment benefits in the United States has both recorded a decline, indicating that the job market is still in a tense state and remains a key obstacle for the Federal Reserve to combat inflation. Despite a slowdown in salary growth in recent months, the demand for workers still far exceeds supply and will continue to exert upward pressure on wages and broader prices.




Analysis of Gold Technology:




Before the announcement of non farm payroll tonight, it is roughly centered around1910-1918Narrow range consolidation within the interval; From a daily perspective, the gold market has been engulfed by a large bearish trend and has shown a relatively good top shape, currently supporting the medium track1910Based on the results released by small non farm workers on Wednesday and the comparison of the expected values for large non farm workers tonight, the market tends to favor gold; Then the short-term hourly linemacdIndeed, there are also instances of bottom divergence, with a tendency to pull back when pulled down. Once stable1910There will be a wave of upward correction and overnight decline, just before the data1910First, it may be a bit aggressive to test for bullish sentiment, as last month's non farm sector has experienced a reversal of the combination of public announcements and trends, and we cannot easily believe it; So, as a conservative approach, we should wait for the effective breaking of the boxes between residential areas during the day and then choose the opportunity to follow, such as1919After breaking through the station and stepping back on the bullish rebound, the pressure in the upper channel is focused on the graph1945On the front line, if we can pull it up, we will continue to touch the top and bear it down. This time, we still need to try to reach a sub high point to seize opportunities in the high band; On the contrary, effectively breaking down1910So pay attention below1892-93On the first line, it belongs to the upper track return crossing point of the early stage channel of the daily line. At that time, ifmacdIf the volume cannot continue to increase, one can deviate from the state and intervene to see a rebound; Therefore, the range of focus today is1892-1945Between; Focus on the daily closing line. If it bottoms out and rises, there will be a high point early next week; If it continues to be bearish, it may directly knock down the bulls and boost morale to follow the bearish trend next Monday; In short, the big idea has remained unchanged recently, which is to end it1616The recent forced upward trend has led to a major downturn in the future, followed by a bull market bull market waiting for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates; The short-term layout within the day may face a significant back and forth sweep, similar to Wednesday and Thursday, but the general idea needs to be firm;