Qin Liyan:2.3黄金暴跌迎接非农！日内黄金分析及操作

      Friday(2month3day)亚市早盘，美元指数维持升势，现报101.85附近。欧元/USD and GBP/美元继续承压，昨日这两个货币对均出现大跌。现货goldMaintain at1915dollar/盎司左右，周四金价暴跌逾35美元。本交易日，投资者将迎来美国非农就业报告，预计将引发市场重大行情。



       有分析称，美联储、英国央行、欧洲央行相继加息，美元似乎会从中受益。美联储加息25Basis points, while the UK and ECB raise interest rates50One basis point. However, US interest rates remain at a relatively high level, providing support for the US dollar. The elasticity of the US labor market suggests that the Federal Reserve may need to further raise interest rates and maintain high rates for a longer period of time, despite many investors betting that monetary policy will begin to relax later this year. On the US side, to1month28Record of initial claims for unemployment benefits for the current week18.3Ten thousand people, for2022year4month23New low since the beginning of the current week. The number of initial jobless claims in the United States has declined for the fourth time in five weeks, highlighting the widespread resilience of the job market, which may keep inflation high. According to the latest released data, the number of people applying for and renewing unemployment benefits in the United States has both recorded a decline, indicating that the job market is still in a tense state and remains a key obstacle for the Federal Reserve to combat inflation. Despite a slowdown in salary growth in recent months, the demand for workers still far exceeds supply and will continue to exert upward pressure on wages and broader prices.



非农重磅来袭！



       投资人焦点转向周五晚些时候的美国1月非农就业报告，市场预估新增就业人数将较去年12月减少，而失业率料小幅上扬。美国1月非农就业报告定于香港时间周五21:30出炉。权威媒体调查显示，美国1Monthly non farm employment is expected to increase18.5万，此前去年12Monthly increase22.3Ten thousand. U.S.A1月失业率料自3.5%Ascend to3.6%。投资者也聚焦薪资数据。调查显示，美国1月平均每小时工资月率料增长0.3%，增幅与上月相同；美国1月平均每小时工资年率料上升4.3%，此前去年12月为攀升4.6%。分析师指出，假如非农就业报告强于预期，尤其是薪资数据强劲的话，美元有望进一步走强，从而打压其它主要非美货币和金价。



2.3Analysis of gold market trend:



       黄金技术面分析：黄金周四探高回落收低，最高触及1959.60一线承压。尾盘回吐收低，将前一日上涨空间尽数回吐，重新回到1920下方收盘。日线中阴线收低，一阴吞双阳。单从日K线结构来看，高位出现了冲高回落收低，短期有见顶回落之风险，进入高位上涨尾端。常见的洗盘的手法。高位诱多之后再快速拐头向下。这个阶段，多空切换频繁，操作上更要理性对待，谨防套单风险。以短线操作为主。严格带好损位。随着美元指数的低位反弹，日线冲高收低，形成阴吞阳的看跌K线组合，日线进入回调周期。



      from4小时图走势来看，隔夜黄金暴跌回吐后，回弹力度有限，这也说明多头大势已去，趋势基本定型为转势下跌，且才是刚开始，日内行情可能会借助20日线有一定的回弹，但这只能视作为多头的挣扎行为，短线的回弹一是多头拉升借机了结，而这也会加大后期行情再度下跌的力度和信心，所以日内主思路还是以择高空为主。不过今日也有变数风险，即非农数据，具体情况可参考对于美指的分析，即只要非农数据不是太差，那么市场可能会选择无视影响，黄金多头该进行获利抛售打压的还是进行。



      日内行情可能先借助20Daily line1915附近有回弹动作，但是不会很大，上方可着重关注5、10Daily line1927-30一带压力，只要行情不返回到5、10日线上方，那么整体结构依旧看空。结合小时图走势，日内回弹幅度未必会到1927-30，甚至可能在1922-23一带即有受阻表现，如果有此表现，也可进一步证明多头已经大势已去。操作上，主思路以持空，以及择高再短空为主，而对于多单的参与，能规避尽量规避，目前再多对于操作上以及思路上都会带来很大的负面影响。综合来看，今日黄金短线操作思路上建议反弹做空为主，回调做多为辅，上方短期重点关注1927-1930Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1900-1905Frontline support, friends must keep up with the rhythm. To control position and stop loss issues, strictly set stop losses, and do not operate against orders. The recent market turbulence has been significant, with opportunities and risks coexisting. Control risks and increase returns.



2.3Reference for Golden Operation Strategy:



Empty order strategy:



       Strategy 1: Gold rebounds1925-1927Short (buy down) 2/10 positions in batches nearby, stop loss6Points, target1915-1910Nearby, break down and take a look1900frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)




Multiple order strategy:




        Strategy 2: Gold Callback1903-1905Nearby batch long (buy up) 2/10 positions, stop loss6Points, target1915-1920Nearby, break down and take a look1925frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)