ATFXUS Index: China12monthCPIYear-on-year growth1.8%, slightly higher than the previous value, offshore people...

today9:30Published by the Bureau of Statistics12monthCPIRelevant data. Among them,CPIYear-on-year growth1.8%, higher than the previous value1.6%, in line with the expected value; Month-on-month growth0%, higher than the previous value-0.2%And expected values-0.1%。 The internationally recognized moderate inflation level is2%, ChinaCPIThe growth rate needs to be further higher. Look at the long cycle,2022yearCPIThe highest year-on-year growth rate occurred in9Month, for2.8%，12Of the month1.8%It appears in the downward trend, and the rebound trend is difficult to continue. By category, the price of pork increased year-on-year22.2%, ranking first in all categories, isCPI增速的中流砥柱。鲜菜价格同比下跌8%，是所有类目中跌幅最大的品种。不过，从环比数据看，猪肉价格下跌8.7%，而鲜菜价格上涨7%，这与年度数据表现正好相反。除去食品类目外，交通工具用燃料的波动最为显著，同比增速为10.4%, month on month decrease6%。中国食品和能源的高波动情况，与主要发达国家的情况 基本一致。

CPI数据会对人民银行的货币政策造成影响。当CPI增速偏高时，中央银行倾向于紧缩货币政策，以遏制总需求的方式压低物价；当CPI增速偏低时，中央银行倾向于宽松货币政策，以更低的利率来促进消费和投资。12Month ChinaCPIGrowth rate1.8%，显然处于偏低状态，需要宽松货币政策拉高总需求。2022年，人民银行三次下调五年期LPR利率，幅度分别为5Base point15Base point15基点；两次下调两年期LPR利率，幅度分别为10Base point5Base point.2023年，预计长短期LPR利率至少还会下调两次，累计下跌幅度大概率在15基点以上。

对货币政策最为敏感的是离岸人民币汇率。绝对角度看，人民银行宽松货币政策会导致离岸人民币汇率上涨，亦即人民币对美元贬值。相对角度看，离岸人民币的走势不单受到人民银行的影响，还受到美联储的影响，并且后者的影响性远大于前者。美联储已经结束了紧急加息的节奏，取而代之的不断降低的单次加息幅度。美元指数已经从牛市转为熊市，今年一季度有可能跌破100整数关口。由于美元指数能够主导离岸人民币走势，所以离岸人民币汇率不会上涨，反而会延续当前的跌势。最新市价约6.75，已经处于6.8以下，相比2022年最高点7.37已经显著回落。除非美联储激进加息的预期再次升温，不然离岸人民币将难以重归涨势。

CPI不包含房地产市场的价格数据，但房地产业又会对人民银行的货币政策造成影响。股票房地产板块正集体上涨，原因是政策面频频释放利好。房地产开发商面临的难题有二，其一是销售低迷，其二是融资渠道匮乏。政策面正努力解决这两个问题，具体措施包括松绑限购、降低LPR利率、鼓励商业银行授信等等。楼市的稳定有利于锁定流动资金，对离岸人民币的升值有助益。

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There are risks in the market, and investment needs to be cautious. The above content only represents the analyst's personal views and does not constitute any operational suggestions. Please do not consider this report as the sole reference. At different times, analysts' perspectives may change, and updates will not be notified separately.

2023-01-11