ATFXUS: US12monthCPIData is coming, the growth rate is decreasing or has been determined

tomorrow21:30The United States Department of Labor will announce12Month nameCPIGrowth and coreCPIThe growth rate data of the former has dropped for five consecutive months, and the latter has also dropped for two consecutive months. It is estimated that12The monthly growth rate will continue to decrease. nameCPIThe value before growth is7.1%, expected6.5%, expected decrease0.6Percentage points. coreCPIThe value before growth is6%, expected5.7%, expected decrease0.3Percentage points. yesCPIThe biggest factor affecting the data is commodity prices, especially energy and food prices. Due to the impact of commodity prices onCPI的传导具有滞后性，且滞后时间无法准确判断，所以观察大宗商品最近三个月至半年的价格变化，更能相对准确地判断CPI走向。2022year10Month11Month12Month,WTI的涨跌幅分别为涨8.45%、跌6.98%、跌0.05%，累计涨幅为1.28%。2022年下半年，累计跌幅23.87%。这意味着，WTI中长期处于下跌趋势，但中短期有横盘震荡的特征。反映在CPI数据当中，12monthCPI增速有可能下降，但降幅比较有限，大概率比预期的同比增速要稍高。

无论降幅大小，只要CPI增速在下降，就能够持续弱化美联储加息的预期。美联储调整货币政策的锚有两个，一个是通胀率，它代表物价是否稳定；另一个是失业率，它代表居民收入是否稳定。CPI增速下降，意味着消费者物价正在环比走低。激进加息政策是为了遏制物价上涨，既然目的已经达到，继续该政策的理由就不存在。2023年一季度，美联储还将进行两次利率决议，预计单次加息幅度分别为50Base point25基点。不断降低的加息幅度无法驱动美元指数维持2022年上半年的类似涨势。美国最新失业率为3.5%，既低于前值又低于5%的充分就业水平线，经济谁退迹象不明显，所以美联储不会急于开启降息操作。2023年一季度过后，美联储大概率长时间维持5.1%左右的基准利率不变，美元指数也将随之进入震荡整理期。

小概率事件仍有发生的可能，12monthCPI增速若高于前值，则会引发金融市场巨震。2022year9月末以来，美元指数持续下跌，其间没有出现中期反弹走势。技术角度考虑，即便是熊市，中期反弹也必不可少。能够触发美元指数的反弹的因素，一个是非农就业报告，另一个就是CPI数据。如果明日晚间的CPI增速数据高于前值，意味着美国的高通胀问题死灰复燃，激进加息的预期将迅速升温。由于存在超预期效应，美元指数的涨势将异常剧烈，与美元共振性较强的欧元和gold的波动率也将急剧放大。

CPI数据发布后的半小时内，经验角度看，EURUSD大概率出现100标准点以内的波动。XAUSUD大概率出现10美金左右的波动；美股和crude oil同样会受到CPI数据的冲击，但力度较弱，一般关注即可。

Risk reminder, disclaimer, special statement:
There are risks in the market, and investment needs to be cautious. The above content only represents the analyst's personal views and does not constitute any operational suggestions. Please do not consider this report as the sole reference. At different times, analysts' perspectives may change, and updates will not be notified separately.

2023-01-11