ATFXUS Index: The US nonfarm employment report is coming, which may boost the US dollar index again

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ATFXUS Index: The US nonfarm employment report is coming, which may boost the US dollar index again180 / author:atfx2019 / PostsID:1715950

The non farm employment report, also known as the Great Non farm Employment Report, will be published today21：30It was announced that the newly added non-agricultural employment population and the unemployment rate were the most important data for the market. The pre value of non-agricultural employment population is26.310000 people, expected20It is expected that there will be a small decline. The pre unemployment rate is3.7%, expected3.7%, both are equal. Announced on ThursdayADPSmall non farm data show that the latest value23.510000 people are much higher than the previous value18.210000 people and expected value1510000 people, and the data exceeding the expectation led the USD index to change from104Nearby flushed to105above. Because of the small non farmADP与大非农都在描述美国劳动力市场变动情况，只不过存在样本量的差距，所以今晚的大非农公布值有超预期的较大可能。如果新增非农就业人口大于前值26.3万人，则美元指数、美国三大stock market index将受到显著提振。

为什么超预期的非农数据会提振美元指数并抑制美国三大股指？比较简单的解释为：周四小非农ADP超预期后美元指数大涨，所以大非农也会有类似影响性。从美联储货币政策调整的角度也可以得出同样结论。一般情况下，美国经济数据越是强劲，美联储越倾向于激进加息，因为高通胀问题会比较突出。从这一逻辑推断，超预期的非农数据会刺激美联储高强度加息，美元指数自然会获得上涨动力。

美股受到的影响是相反的，因为加息会压缩股市估值，超预期的非农数据反而对股市形成冲击。这也是为什么周四（ADP发布当日）美国三大股指集体下跌的原因。需要提醒的是，美联储激进加息的节奏已经在12月份利率决议上打破，2023年的两年利率决议预计将分别加息50Base point25基点。强劲的劳动力市场或许不会再按照货币政策逻辑对美元指数和美股产生影响。最终数据的好坏对美指和美股的冲击，还要依据实际情况进行判断。

非农就业报告也会对债券市场形成影响。12月下旬，十年期美债收益率持续上涨，最高触及3.886%，这是一种技术性反弹，筑顶无法长期存在。12月末开始，十年期美债收益率开始下行，今日最新值3.7309%。 according to12月份美联储会议纪要，2023年的最终利率大概率维持在5%左右。十年期美债收益率低于该值，意味着债券市场认为美联储在加息至顶点后，将不得不开启宽松货币政策。背后的原因或许是高通胀和高利率下，宏观经济的显著衰退。超预期的非农数据会对十年期美债形成提振作用，因为这意味着宏观经济的衰退远未到来，美联储的宽松货币政策临界点还将推迟。

gold和欧元大概率会在非农就业报告公布后迅速下跌。因为ADP数据已经给出提示，12月份的美国劳动力市场超预期强劲。EURUSD的短期支撑位在1.0450，国际金价的短期支撑在1800dollar/盎司。由于美元指数的中期趋势为空头，在数据的影响性小时候，欧元和黄金还将延续此前的涨势。

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There are risks in the market, and investment needs to be cautious. The above content only represents the analyst's personal views and does not constitute any operational suggestions. Please do not consider this report as the sole reference. At different times, analysts' perspectives may change, and updates will not be notified separately.