ATFX: The conflict between Russia and Ukraine was intensified, and the international gold price rose sharply

On Monday, Russian officials admitted that dozens of Russian soldiers were killed when the temporary military camp in Makayevka was attacked by Ukrainian troops. Makayevka is located in the east of Donetsk, and the attack point is a local school building. According to the reaction of Russia in similar events in the past, Kiev, the capital of Ukraine, will be attacked by Russian artillery the next day.

The international gold price was significantly boosted. As of today15:30New YorkgoldSelf opening price1831The dollar rose1.39%, highest touch1852dollar/ounce. Due to the delay in the dissemination of unexpected news, it is expected that there will be another round of makeup up trend for New York gold during today's US trading session.

The Russia-Ukraine conflict has lasted for nearly a year, and there are countless confrontations of various sizes. Most of the attacks coming and going cannot have a significant impact on the international gold price. For example, this year9The Beixi pipeline explosion in January10In September, the Crimea Bridge exploded. On the day of the two events, international gold prices fell respectively1.59%and1.97%The New York gold has not received any boost.

Why did this attack quickly reflect on the international gold price? There are two reasons. Firstly, last year12Since mid month, the international market has been extremely lacking in hot spots, with the US dollar, euro, gold, and US stocks all experiencing narrow fluctuations. In this context, a usually inconspicuous news can also receive huge amounts of funding attention. Secondly, the attack on Makayevka occurred in2023year1month1On the first day of the New Year, the attacked Russian army was even celebrating the New Year. It can be expected that Russia's counterattack against Ukraine will be exceptionally fierce in the future, and financial markets are betting on this "unexpected blow".

In fact, even without any unexpected events, the international gold price still maintains a good upward trend. Due to the Federal Reserve's12The market's enthusiasm for 'radical rate hikes' is rapidly dissipating as it lowers the single rate hike in the month and reveals a willingness to continue reducing it in the future. The unsupported US dollar index has plummeted, and the current market price104Nearby, expected to be2023Impact in the first quarter of the year100Gateway. The international gold price and the US dollar index have a seesaw relationship, and the downward trend of the US dollar index will inevitably push up the gold price. The US economic recession caused by high interest rates and high inflation is expected to occur in2023As the year intensifies, the Federal Reserve may also initiate interest rate cuts in the second half of the year100The checkpoint is not the bottom, and the corresponding international gold price may rise to2000dollar/ounce. However, this excessive deviation from market expectations requires a longer time period to hedge.

2023In the year, the conflict between Western countries and Russia will continue.1month2On the same day, the Commonwealth Office for Development announced that the UK has transferred1month1Starting from today, we will stop importing liquefied natural gas from Russia. Natural gas is a necessary energy source for the UK to survive the winter, and domestic natural gas prices remain high, while the UK remains steadfast in stopping importing Russian natural gas. It can be seen that the conflict between Europe and Russia cannot be bridged. It is difficult to quickly end the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and it is unlikely that the two countries will return to the negotiating table. After all, there are fundamental differences of interest between the two countries. For the international gold price, as long as the Russia-Ukraine conflict does not end, the market price will be difficult to effectively fall below1800The central position of.


*Risk Tips and Disclaimers*
There are risks in the market and investment should be cautious. The above contents only represent the views of analysts and do not constitute any operational recommendations.
2023-01-03