ATFX: USAPCEWhether the US Index will break away from the data104shackles?

today21:30, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis will announce11monthPCEYear on year data of price index, the former value is6%, expected5.5%As the growth rate of this data has declined for four consecutive months, the probability of the published value meeting the expectation is high.11Monthly CorePCEThe year-on-year price index data were released at the same time, and the previous value was5%, expected4.65%, the data is displayed in10It was not stable enough and may exceed expectations.


11Month USACPIThe data is already in this month13It can be published asPCEReference of data.11monthCPIYear-on-year growth7.1%, lower than the previous value7.7%And expected values7.3%； coreCPIYear-on-year growth6.3%，同样低于前值6.3%And expected values6.1%。据此判断，11monthPCE同比增速低于前值和预期值的概率非常高，或可称板上钉钉。另外，对于美联储来说，PCE数据要比CPI数据更可靠，货币政策的调整多依赖前者表现。这一点更增强了PCE对金融市场的冲击力。

12月份以来，美元指数持续围绕104价位做窄幅震荡。在PCE这一重磅数据的冲击下，美元指数有可能摆脱104的束缚，击穿震荡区间上下限。概率上讲，名义和核心PCE数据将如预期一般出现增速下降，这会加强“高通胀拐点”的预期，利空美元指数。数据公布后，美元指数向下逼近103.5的可能性较高。12Since the beginning of the month,EURUSDstay1.06价位附近持续震荡。如果美指下破104，EURUSD有可能向上触及1.07Price range.

超预期数据对市场的冲击远大于符合预期的数据。如果核心PCE物价指数不降反增（概率非常低），美元指数有可能上破105，并形成触底反弹的结构。EURUSD也将停止涨势，进入回调阶段，短期目标位1.05。

技术角度看，长期均线MA250已经和美元指数市价纠结，当前的震荡状态较为稳固。短期均线MA60andMA120向下交叉，中短期内空头仍旧占据优势。MACD柱线在零轴附近运行，波动率较低；快慢线处于零轴之下，空头占优。两类指标均给出震荡偏空的结论，但今晚走势如何，主要依赖PCE数据表现。

gold也会受到PCE数据影响，其走势预计与EURUSD类似。波动幅度上看，如果PCE数据符合预期，则数据公布后的半小时内，黄金的波动幅度在5~10美金以内；EURUSD的波动幅度预期为20标准点。美股及crude oil受到PCE数据的影响较小。

ATFX分析师团队综合观点：美国高通胀出现拐点已经成为市场共识，在不超预期的情况下，未来PCE数据的影响性大概率将逐月下降。

*Risk Tips and Disclaimers*
There are risks in the market and investment should be cautious. The above contents only represent the views of analysts and do not constitute any operational recommendations.
2022-12-23