Guide Metallographer:11.9Today's gold trend analysis, 金价破位上行大幅收涨

Market Review:


InternationalgoldTuesday(11month8day)Significant increase in closing price1678.79dollar/Ounces, highest price1714.00dollar/Ounces, lowest price1664.53dollar/Ounces, closing price1712.87dollar/ounce.


Interpretation of the Golden News:


The United States announced on Tuesday10monthNFIB小型企业信心指数录得91.3, lower than market expectations91.4, previous value is92.1.


　　全美独立企业联合会周二称，受销售下滑的影响，美国10monthNFIB小型企业信心指数中的10个成分股中有7个下跌，预期和计划招聘的公司数量也有所下降。该调查的通胀指标喜忧参半，提价的业主净比例连续第五个月下降至50%This is from2021year9月以来的最低水平，但仍很高。然而，约三分之一的公司计划提高薪酬，这是今年以来最高的。劳动力问题仍然是第二大问题。业主们继续称难以吸引合格的申请人来填补空缺职位。NFIBchief economist Bill说，通货膨胀、供应链中断和劳动力短缺继续限制了许多小企业满足其产品和服务需求的能力。


　　美国期中选举投票正在进行，这将决定美国国会的控制权，投资者押注将会出现政治僵局，可能会阻止未来的重大政策变化。投票将决定众议院的435个席位和参议院的约35个席位的党派所属，专家们表示，可能还要等上几天，才能明确知道谁获胜。


　　分析称，若民主党意外获胜可能会引起人们对科技行业监管以及预算支出的担忧，这可能会加剧已经很高的通胀。


　　惠誉分析，美国政治分歧加剧意味着在债务上限和预算问题上再次出现有争议的辩论和边缘政策的可能性更大。预计目前的货币紧缩政策将抑制消费需求，导致美国就业增长放缓，失业率上升。分裂的美国政府将导致立法上出现僵局，从而降低了拜登任期内出台重大税收或支出举措的可能性。分裂的美国政府意味着治理风险增加，包括可能在预算、债务上限等问题上发生争执，最终导致政府关门。目前美国政府内部出现分歧，政府治理和政策风险成为全球焦点。


　　德商银行分析称，最新的美国非农就业数据刺激金价走高，同时美元贬值也推动了金价的涨势，上周收涨2.2%。德国商业银行策略师指出，最近黄金价格的大涨很可能是由于投机性空头回补。CFTC的数据显示，就在几天前，这类合约的数量达到了4万多份，仅略低于去年9月下旬的高点。相比之下，黄金ETF上周末出现了规模可观的资金流出，而且在美联储会议后资金流出加速。因此，金价的上涨缺乏一个重要的基本面支撑。


The world's largest goldETF--SPDR Gold TrustIncrease in position compared to the previous day2.89Tons, current position is908.38Tons.


According toCMEFederal Reserve Observation: The Federal Reserve12Monthly interest rate increase50Bps to4.25%-4.50%The probability of the interval is56.8%Interest rate hike75The probability of a basis point is43.2%； By next year2Monthly cumulative interest rate increase75The probability of a basis point is24.8%Accumulated interest rate increase100The probability of a basis point is50.9%Accumulated interest rate increase125The probability of a basis point is24.3%。


Today's Gold Data:


　　16:00美联储威廉姆斯发表讲话


　　23:00U.S.A9Monthly wholesale sales rate


　　24:00美联储巴尔金就美国经济前景发表讲话


Technical analysis of gold:


　　周二黄金开盘在1674.89dollar/盎司，开盘后出现了先跌后涨走势，最低给到1664.5美元企稳徘徊，随后上涨出现了逆转，最高点给到1680美元徘徊。黄金日线的布林通道上来看，国际金价现在处在多头之中，昨天金价收十字星阳线，如果后市不破1666一线的月线支撑，很有可能这是震荡结构中向上进一步突破。日线也是底部巨阳拉升并满阳收尾，布林上轨呈现开口迹象，MA5—MA10均线开启金叉势头，看涨情绪较强。加之目前已经成功突破1715—下行趋势压制点，也企稳了1680这个美联储加息高点位置。


　　4The hourly chart is still in a correction pattern of rebounding waves. Yesterday's pullback space was relatively small and belongs to a strong correction technique, using a sideways trend instead of a pullback. Today, we still need to pay attention to this rhythm. As long as there is no significant pullback, the strong will continue, and the strong will not be deeply adjusted, and the deep adjustment will not be strong. First touched yesterday1680Support is formed nearby and maintained in the short term1680上方继续看多，结合盘中形态，启稳后继续看冲高。在突破1700之后，金价持续拉升，并一举冲破1710，这可能是暗示黄金将迎来一波破位行情。从1小时走势图来看，金价沿趋势线持续走高，若金价继续上行，上方较近1715阻力位，突破后或将进一步看涨至前高1720-1727. Overall, today's gold short-term operation strategy is guided by the guidance of gold analysts, who suggest that the main focus is to rebound and short, supplemented by a pullback and long, with a focus on the short-term above1720-1729Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1700-1690Frontline support, friends must keep up with the rhythm.


　　11.9Reference for Golden Operation Strategy:


Empty order strategy:


Strategy 1: Gold rebounds1717-1720Short (buy down) 2/10 positions in batches nearby, stop loss6Points, target1710-1700Nearby, break down and take a look1690frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


Multiple order strategy:


Strategy 2: Gold Callback1685-1690Nearby batch long (buy up) 2/10 positions, stop loss6Points, target1700-1710Nearby, break down and take a look1715frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)