Guide Metallographer:11.4Analysis of today's gold trend

　　goldMessage interpretation:


Thursday(11month3day)International gold prices hit a new low in nearly two weeks1619.62dollar/Ounces, the aggressive hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve has not significantly subsided, but due to conflicting signals from the Federal Reserve, the decline in gold prices is limited, and investors are shifting their focus to the United States10Monthly non farm employment report. After the Federal Reserve concluded its two-day meeting and issued a policy statement, spot gold briefly rose1.3%However, shortly thereafter, it gave up all its upward momentum and turned downwards, closing in a close decline0.8%., After the Federal Reserve issued many contradictory signals, gold experienced severe volatility.


The Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the fourth consecutive time as scheduled overnight75And indicated that the fight against inflation will require further increase in borrowing costs. But the Federal Reserve also suggests that tightening policies may be approaching a turning point. Chairman Powell stated at a press conference that "the Federal Reserve has a way to adjust interest rates until policies reach a sufficiently strict level." Former senior Fed official and current Chief Economist at the Institute of Banking Policy, Bill Nielsen, stated before the Powell press conference that the Fed's policy statement seems to be preparing for further rate hikes before its tightening cycle ends.


Friday(11month4day)U.S.A10The decisive moment for the gold market will only come after the release of the monthly non-farm employment report. "If the employment data reinforces the hawkish content we heard from Powell, then gold may break through the lower limit of the range."(1615dollar)And try to extend downwards in a more meaningful way The current market pricing shows that the Federal Reserve12Monthly interest rate increase50The likelihood of exceeding one basis point50%. Strong employment data will support the Federal Reserve's aggressive hawkish policies and lay the foundation for gold's recent bearish recovery trend.


Technical analysis of gold:


From the daily line, the dayKAs a whole, we have taken on the form of upper shadow and large shadow. Therefore, in the short term today, we need to lean towards bearish positions. From a morphological perspective, gold is still operating within the triangular range, with upward pressure1674Nearby, supported below1618Nearby, from a moving average level perspective5Rihe10The daily moving average crosses, and the current price is running at5The position below the daily moving average, as seen from the Bollinger Belt, narrows the three line pattern. The price runs below the middle track of the Bollinger Belt, and the trend pattern is weak. In terms of technical indicatorsMACDandKDJThe overall trend of the third tier is downward, so from a daily perspective, gold prices tend to be bearish;


After finishing with the daily level, let's finally talk about the four hour level market. From the four hour perspective, the three lines of the Bollinger Belt are generally downward, and the price has dropped to the position of the lower track of the Bollinger Belt in the morning. Currently, there has been a short-term rebound, and the position of the middle track of the upper Bollinger Belt is1642Nearby, today's gold price does not break through this position. It is difficult to continue for so many positions. From the moving average, the three lines cross and turn downwards, and the price is also running at5The position below the daily moving average, based on technical indicatorsMACDandKDJThe overall trend of the third line is turning downwards, so from a four hour perspective, it is also bearish. Currently, the support for the closing of the Bollinger Road lower track on the daily line is also near the low point. In terms of form, it is temporarily fluctuating. Although the trend of rising and closing is turning short, the rhythm is not strong in continuity. The short term is still accompanied by a back and forth sawing movement, and before effectively breaking, it will repeatedly sawing above the low point.KThe form of the line is accompanied by the exchange of yin and yang. The position of the Asian market is not in a hurry to chase down temporarily, and we will choose a high altitude after the rebound of the European and American markets. Overall, today's gold short-term operation strategy is guided by the guidance of gold analysts, who suggest that the main focus is to rebound and short, supplemented by a pullback and long, with a focus on the short-term above1645-1647Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1610-1612Frontline support, friends must keep up with the rhythm.


　　11.3Reference for Golden Operation Strategy:


Empty order strategy:


Strategy 1: Gold rebounds1626-1630Short (buy down) 2/10 positions in batches nearby, stop loss6Points, target1615-1618Nearby, break down and take a look1610frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


Multiple order strategy:


Strategy 2: Gold Callback1610-1612Nearby batch long (buy up) 2/10 positions, stop loss6Points, target1620-1625Nearby, break down and take a look1630frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)