Guide Metallographer:11.3今日黄金走势分析，鲍威尔鹰击长空

　　goldMessage interpretation:


　　昨日周三美联储加息之前，黄金在1650美元附近窄幅震荡，靴子落地之后，黄金价格短线拉升，30分钟涨幅超过20美元，不过之后美联储主席新闻发布会，令行情发生反转，金价瞬间跳水近15美元，并在之后继续承压，整体跌幅超过35美元。黄金上涨遇阻，走势两级反转，短线波动承压，不排除进一步下跌的风险。


　　周四黄金开盘后，延续周三晚间跌势，金价最低跌至1631美元，在最近两周低点1630美元上方企稳反弹，最高涨至1641美元再次遇阻，暂时交投于1633美元附近，录得一根阴十字星K线。目前黄金短线支撑仍在1630美元，不过从日内的走势情况来看，反弹相对乏力，金价跌破1630美元，将有机会试探最近两年半的低点1614USD.


　　Wolfinance星级分析师指南金师曾在周一说过，“如果美联储降低前端发力，暗示终点利率比之前预计的4.6%更高，美元有机会再创新高，并重挫黄金价格”，从本次加息看，美联储在加息时间与终点利率的问题上相对鹰派，货币政策将进入细水长流的新阶段，即加息幅度放缓，加息时间更长。


　　回顾美联储利率决议，这是美联储连续第四次加息75个基点，创造了1980年以来的最快加息速度，以遏制最近40年来上升最快的通胀，靴子落地之后，美联储的声明显示，最早可能在12月放缓加息步伐，这导致市场对12Monthly interest rate increase75个基点的预期迅速降温，美元指数急跌，美联储的鸽派信号，也在之后美联储主席鲍威尔的讲话中得到佐证。


　　鲍威尔在新闻发布会上表示，最早在下一次或再后面一次的会议上，降低加息幅度将是合适的，目前还没有做出最后决定，上述言论是整场发布会，对黄金仅有的利好消息。在承认放缓加息步伐后，鲍威尔表示，现在讨论暂停加息为时过早，最终利率水平将高于此前的预期。


Today's Gold Data:


　　15:30Switzerland10monthCPIMonthly rate


　　16:05European Central Bank President Lagarde delivers a speech


　　17:30britain10Monthly service industryPMI


　　18:00eurozone9Monthly unemployment rate


　　19:30U.S.A10Monthly Challenger Enterprise layoffs


　　20:00Bank of England Announces Interest Rate Resolutions and Meeting Minutes


　　20:30Bank of England Governor Bailey Holds a Press Conference


　　20:30From the United States to10month29Number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the current week


　　20:30U.S.A9Monthly trade account


　　21:45U.S.A10monthMarkitService industryPMIFinal value


　　22:00U.S.A10monthISMNon manufacturingPMI


　　22:00U.S.A9Monthly factory order rate


Technical analysis of gold:


From the daily line, the dayKAs a whole, we have taken on the form of upper shadow and large shadow. Therefore, in the short term today, we need to lean towards bearish positions. From a morphological perspective, gold is still operating within the triangular range, with upward pressure1674Nearby, supported below1618Nearby, from a moving average level perspective5Rihe10The daily moving average crosses, and the current price is running at5The position below the daily moving average, as seen from the Bollinger Belt, narrows the three line pattern. The price runs below the middle track of the Bollinger Belt, and the trend pattern is weak. In terms of technical indicatorsMACDandKDJThe overall trend of the third tier is downward, so from a daily perspective, gold prices tend to be bearish;


After finishing with the daily level, let's finally talk about the four hour level market. From the four hour perspective, the three lines of the Bollinger Belt are generally downward, and the price has dropped to the position of the lower track of the Bollinger Belt in the morning. Currently, there has been a short-term rebound, and the position of the middle track of the upper Bollinger Belt is1642Nearby, today's gold price does not break through this position. It is difficult to continue for so many positions. From the moving average, the three lines cross and turn downwards, and the price is also running at5The position below the daily moving average, based on technical indicatorsMACDandKDJThe overall trend of the third line is turning downwards, so from a four hour perspective, it is also bearish. Currently, the support for the closing of the Bollinger Road lower track on the daily line is also near the low point. In terms of form, it is temporarily fluctuating. Although the trend of rising and closing is turning short, the rhythm is not strong in continuity. The short term is still accompanied by a back and forth sawing movement, and before effectively breaking, it will repeatedly sawing above the low point.KThe form of the line is accompanied by the exchange of yin and yang. The position of the Asian market is not in a hurry to chase down temporarily, and we will choose a high altitude after the rebound of the European and American markets. Overall, today's gold short-term operation strategy is guided by the guidance of gold analysts, who suggest that the main focus is to rebound and short, supplemented by a pullback and long, with a focus on the short-term above1645-1647Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1610-1612Frontline support, friends must keep up with the rhythm.


　　11.3Reference for Golden Operation Strategy:


Empty order strategy:


Strategy 1: Gold rebounds1626-1630Short (buy down) 2/10 positions in batches nearby, stop loss6Points, target1615-1618Nearby, break down and take a look1610frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


Multiple order strategy:


Strategy 2: Gold Callback1610-1612Nearby batch long (buy up) 2/10 positions, stop loss6Points, target1620-1625Nearby, break down and take a look1630frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)