Guide Metallographer:11.3Analysis of today's gold trend, with the Federal Reserve raising interest rates as scheduled75Basis points

Market Review:


InternationalgoldWednesday(11month2day)Maintain a volatile trend, opening price1644.16dollar/Ounces, highest price1658.64dollar/Ounces, lowest price1642.73dollar/Ounces, closing price1646.21dollar/ounce.


Interpretation of the Golden News:


The US to11month2Japanese Federal Reserve Rate Decision(upper limit)by4%, in line with market expectations, with a previous value of3.25%。


Federal ReserveFOMCThe statement shows that the committee members unanimously agree to this interest rate decision. Employment growth is strong, and the unemployment rate remains low. We need to continue raising interest rates until they reach a sufficiently restrictive level. The high inflation partially reflects(Marketable)Imbalance. Prepare to adjust monetary policy appropriately.(The Federal Reserve hinted that it may slow down the pace of interest rate hikes)


Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated his firm commitment to reducing inflation. Without price stability, the labor market will not be able to sustain strength. The US economy has significantly slowed down compared to last year. The labor market is extremely tense. Inflation is still far above our target. At some point, slowing down the rate of interest rate hikes would be appropriate. History strongly warns against premature policy relaxation. We need to see a significant decrease in inflation rate. A decrease in inflation is not a condition for us to slow down the pace of interest rate hikes. The data shows that we may eventually raise interest rates higher than what we have in the9Expected level at the monthly meeting. As soon as possible12The month will slow down the rate of interest rate hikes. If we excessively tighten, we can use our tools to cope. We hope to ensure that we do not make the mistake of not tightening enough or withdrawing from loose policies too early. It is too early to consider suspending interest rate hikes. As interest rates rise, it is difficult to see a soft landing. There is no sign that inflation is decreasing. If we excessively tighten, we have the ability to use powerful tools to support economic activity. On the other hand, if the tightening force is not enough, after a year or two, you will realize that inflation has not been controlled. Didn't see salary-The price spiral has risen. We have been looking for signs of gradual recovery in the labor market and economic slowdown, but these signs are not yet obvious.


Wednesday's announcement of the United States10monthADPEmployment records23.910000 people, higher than market expectations19.510000 people, the former value is20.810000 people.


　　(Higher than market expectations for beautyADPThe employment numbers accelerated the short-term downward trend of gold prices, followed by a return to short-term fluctuations and upward movements. The release of the data has not brought about a significant change in the pace of pricing. Short term gold prices have remained volatile and rising, while long-term gold prices have maintained a consolidation trend towards the bottom of the range. The performance of the data fully reflects the recent stability of the US job market.)


　　ADPchief economist Nela RichardsonGiven the maturity of the economic recovery, this is a very strong employment data, but at the same time, recruitment activities are not widespread. Interest rate sensitive commodity producers are cutting back on expenses, and wage growth for job changers is also relatively small. Although we see early signs of demand disruption driven by the Federal Reserve, it only affects certain areas of the labor market.


　　CNBCCommentary states that employment growth in the key leisure and hotel industries has been particularly strong, with wage growth accelerating11.2%. Industries including hotels, restaurants and bars are regarded as leaders because they have suffered from the most serious COVID-19 epidemic, which is still lower than the level before the epidemic. All new employment opportunities come from service related industries.


US Federal Funds RatefuturesShow that the market is currently predicting the Federal Reserve12Increase interest rates at least once a month75The probability of a basis point is21%Next year2Monthly interest rate increase at least50The probability of a basis point is58%Next year, the Federal Reserve will5Monthly5.08%The terminal interest rate of.


Today's Gold Data:


　　15:30Switzerland10monthCPIMonthly rate


　　16:05European Central Bank President Lagarde delivers a speech


　　17:30britain10Monthly service industryPMI


　　18:00eurozone9Monthly unemployment rate


　　19:30U.S.A10Monthly Challenger Enterprise layoffs


　　20:00Bank of England Announces Interest Rate Resolutions and Meeting Minutes


　　20:30Bank of England Governor Bailey Holds a Press Conference


　　20:30From the United States to10month29Number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the current week


　　20:30U.S.A9Monthly trade account


　　21:45U.S.A10monthMarkitService industryPMIFinal value


　　22:00U.S.A10monthISMNon manufacturingPMI


　　22:00U.S.A9Monthly factory order rate


Technical analysis of gold:


From the daily line, the dayKAs a whole, we have taken on the form of upper shadow and large shadow. Therefore, in the short term today, we need to lean towards bearish positions. From a morphological perspective, gold is still operating within the triangular range, with upward pressure1674Nearby, supported below1618Nearby, from a moving average level perspective5Rihe10The daily moving average crosses, and the current price is running at5The position below the daily moving average, as seen from the Bollinger Belt, narrows the three line pattern. The price runs below the middle track of the Bollinger Belt, and the trend pattern is weak. In terms of technical indicatorsMACDandKDJThe overall trend of the third tier is downward, so from a daily perspective, gold prices tend to be bearish;


After finishing with the daily level, let's finally talk about the four hour level market. From the four hour perspective, the three lines of the Bollinger Belt are generally downward, and the price has dropped to the position of the lower track of the Bollinger Belt in the morning. Currently, there has been a short-term rebound, and the position of the middle track of the upper Bollinger Belt is1642Nearby, today's gold price does not break through this position. It is difficult to continue for so many positions. From the moving average, the three lines cross and turn downwards, and the price is also running at5The position below the daily moving average, based on technical indicatorsMACDandKDJThe overall trend of the third line is turning downwards, so from a four hour perspective, it is also bearish. Currently, the support for the closing of the Bollinger Road lower track on the daily line is also near the low point. In terms of form, it is temporarily fluctuating. Although the trend of rising and closing is turning short, the rhythm is not strong in continuity. The short term is still accompanied by a back and forth sawing movement, and before effectively breaking, it will repeatedly sawing above the low point.KThe form of the line is accompanied by the exchange of yin and yang. The position of the Asian market is not in a hurry to chase down temporarily, and we will choose a high altitude after the rebound of the European and American markets. Overall, today's gold short-term operation strategy is guided by the guidance of gold analysts, who suggest that the main focus is to rebound and short, supplemented by a pullback and long, with a focus on the short-term above1645-1647Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1630-1620Frontline support, friends must keep up with the rhythm.


　　11.3Reference for Golden Operation Strategy:


Empty order strategy:


Strategy 1: Gold rebounds1647-1649Short (buy down) 2/10 positions in batches nearby, stop loss6Points, target1640-1635Nearby, break down and take a look1630frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


Multiple order strategy:


Strategy 2: Gold Callback1625-1628Nearby batch long (buy up) 2/10 positions, stop loss6Points, target1640-1645Nearby, break down and take a look1648frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)